{"product":"Vectorial Economía","description":"One daily analysis of the single most relevant macro event — human-readable and machine-readable.","docs":"https://vectorialdata.com/economia","feeds":{"json_feed":"https://vectorialdata.com/economia/feed.json","rss":"https://vectorialdata.com/economia/feed.xml"},"disclaimer":"Vectorial Economía is descriptive educational information about macro data. Not investment advice.","count":31,"latest":{"date":"2026-07-31","slug":"2026-07-31-us-us-employment-cost-index-q2-2026","event":"US Employment Cost Index (Q2 2026)","country":"US","category":"employment","importance":"high","actual":"0.9% QoQ (SA); 3.4% YoY (NSA)","forecast":"0.8% QoQ","previous":"0.9% QoQ (Q1 2026); 3.4% YoY","unit":"% change","surprise":"hotter","affected_markets":[{"why":"Hotter wage growth lowers the odds of near-term Fed rate cuts, pushing yields higher.","market":"US Treasury yields","direction":"up"},{"why":"Reduced rate-cut expectations typically support the dollar.","market":"US Dollar","direction":"up"},{"why":"Sticky wage costs raise fears of persistent inflation and a longer stretch of high rates, pressuring risk assets.","market":"US equities","direction":"down"}],"analysis_en":{"headline":"US Employment Cost Index (Q2 2026): +0.9% quarterly, above the 0.8% forecast","learning":"The ECI is the Fed's preferred wage gauge because, unlike average hourly earnings, it isn't distorted by shifts in the mix of jobs (e.g., more high-paying jobs being added than low-paying ones). When it surprises to the upside, investors read it as a sign that wage-driven inflation may take longer to fade.","market_impact":"The release lands two days after the Fed held rates steady on July 29. A hotter-than-expected reading signals wage pressures aren't cooling, trimming the odds of a near-term rate cut. Expect upward pressure on Treasury yields and the dollar, with equities likely trading cautiously.","what_it_means":"The Employment Cost Index (ECI) tracks how much wages and benefits paid by employers are rising. In Q2 2026 it rose 0.9% quarter-over-quarter (matching Q1) and 3.4% year-over-year, coming in hotter than the 0.8% economists expected."},"source_url":"https://www.bls.gov/news.release/eci.nr0.htm","occurred_at":"2026-07-31T16:04:39.174+00:00","published_at":"2026-07-31T16:04:39.176+00:00","brief_url":"https://vectorialdata.com/economia/2026-07-31-us-us-employment-cost-index-q2-2026/brief.md","page_url":"https://vectorialdata.com/economia/2026-07-31-us-us-employment-cost-index-q2-2026"},"events":[{"date":"2026-07-31","slug":"2026-07-31-us-us-employment-cost-index-q2-2026","event":"US Employment Cost Index (Q2 2026)","country":"US","category":"employment","importance":"high","actual":"0.9% QoQ (SA); 3.4% YoY (NSA)","forecast":"0.8% QoQ","previous":"0.9% QoQ (Q1 2026); 3.4% YoY","unit":"% change","surprise":"hotter","affected_markets":[{"why":"Hotter wage growth lowers the odds of near-term Fed rate cuts, pushing yields higher.","market":"US Treasury yields","direction":"up"},{"why":"Reduced rate-cut expectations typically support the dollar.","market":"US Dollar","direction":"up"},{"why":"Sticky wage costs raise fears of persistent inflation and a longer stretch of high rates, pressuring risk assets.","market":"US equities","direction":"down"}],"analysis_en":{"headline":"US Employment Cost Index (Q2 2026): +0.9% quarterly, above the 0.8% forecast","learning":"The ECI is the Fed's preferred wage gauge because, unlike average hourly earnings, it isn't distorted by shifts in the mix of jobs (e.g., more high-paying jobs being added than low-paying ones). When it surprises to the upside, investors read it as a sign that wage-driven inflation may take longer to fade.","market_impact":"The release lands two days after the Fed held rates steady on July 29. A hotter-than-expected reading signals wage pressures aren't cooling, trimming the odds of a near-term rate cut. Expect upward pressure on Treasury yields and the dollar, with equities likely trading cautiously.","what_it_means":"The Employment Cost Index (ECI) tracks how much wages and benefits paid by employers are rising. In Q2 2026 it rose 0.9% quarter-over-quarter (matching Q1) and 3.4% year-over-year, coming in hotter than the 0.8% economists expected."},"source_url":"https://www.bls.gov/news.release/eci.nr0.htm","occurred_at":"2026-07-31T16:04:39.174+00:00","published_at":"2026-07-31T16:04:39.176+00:00","brief_url":"https://vectorialdata.com/economia/2026-07-31-us-us-employment-cost-index-q2-2026/brief.md","page_url":"https://vectorialdata.com/economia/2026-07-31-us-us-employment-cost-index-q2-2026"},{"date":"2026-07-30","slug":"2026-07-30-us-pib-de-ee-uu-estimacion-avanzada-2t-2026","event":"PIB de EE.UU. (Estimación Avanzada), 2T 2026","country":"US","category":"growth","importance":"high","actual":"1.5%","forecast":"2.1%","previous":"2.1%","unit":"% trimestral anualizado","surprise":"cooler","affected_markets":[{"why":"Weaker growth raises expectations of a slower economy and more accommodative Fed path","market":"US Treasury yields","direction":"down"},{"why":"Slower growth reduces the yield/growth premium supporting the dollar","market":"US Dollar (DXY)","direction":"down"},{"why":"Growth miss is offset by hopes it pressures the Fed toward eventual rate cuts, but core inflation staying at 3.3% limits the relief","market":"US equities","direction":"neutral"},{"why":"Weaker growth and potential lower real yields typically support gold as a haven and inflation hedge","market":"Gold","direction":"up"}],"analysis_en":{"headline":"US GDP grows just 1.5% in Q2 2026, well below the 2.1% expected","learning":"When growth slows while inflation stays high at the same time, investors call it 'stagflation' risk. In this scenario central banks get trapped: cutting rates would help growth but could reignite inflation; raising them would contain prices but slow the economy further. Watching GDP and inflation gauges (PCE or CPI) together -not in isolation- gives you a far more complete read on where monetary policy is headed.","market_impact":"Weaker-than-expected GDP typically pushes Treasury yields and the dollar lower, since it reduces expectations for future growth. But because core inflation remains at 3.3% -well above the Fed's 2% target- markets can't simply assume this speeds up rate cuts: slowing growth paired with sticky inflation is the toughest combination for central banks to manage. Expect volatility in equities, dollar softness, and demand for havens like gold.","what_it_means":"GDP (Gross Domestic Product) measures the total value of everything an economy produces in a period. This first ('advance') estimate for Q2 2026 shows the US economy slowed sharply: it grew at a 1.5% annualized rate, versus the 2.1% economists expected and down from 2.1% growth in the prior quarter. Consumer spending, investment and exports drove the increase, but a decline in government spending held it back. The release comes just one day after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady, citing inflation (measured by PCE) still elevated at 3.3% core year-over-year."},"source_url":"https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/gdp-advance-estimate-2nd-quarter-2026","occurred_at":"2026-07-30T16:05:01.856+00:00","published_at":"2026-07-30T16:05:01.856+00:00","brief_url":"https://vectorialdata.com/economia/2026-07-30-us-pib-de-ee-uu-estimacion-avanzada-2t-2026/brief.md","page_url":"https://vectorialdata.com/economia/2026-07-30-us-pib-de-ee-uu-estimacion-avanzada-2t-2026"},{"date":"2026-07-29","slug":"2026-07-29-us-decision-de-tasas-de-la-fed-fomc-julio-2026","event":"Decisión de tasas de la Fed (FOMC, julio 2026)","country":"US","category":"central-bank","importance":"high","actual":"3.50%-3.75%","forecast":"3.50%-3.75% (mantener)","previous":"3.50%-3.75%","unit":"rango objetivo (target range)","surprise":"inline","affected_markets":[{"why":"Los inversores recalibraron expectativas de recortes futuros tras el tono más duro del comunicado y del disenso","market":"US stocks (S&P 500, Nasdaq)","direction":"down"},{"why":"El dólar se fortaleció ante la percepción de tasas altas por más tiempo","market":"US Dollar (DXY)","direction":"up"},{"why":"Los rendimientos subieron al descartarse un recorte inminente, presionando los precios de los bonos a la baja","market":"US Treasury yields (10-year)","direction":"up"}],"analysis_en":{"headline":"Fed holds rates at 3.50%-3.75%; one member dissents for a cut","learning":"When a central bank 'holds,' the number is only half the story — tone and dissenting votes matter just as much. A dovish dissent (favoring a cut) amid hawkish expectations can move markets more than the headline decision, since it exposes internal disagreement about where policy is headed next.","market_impact":"US stocks fell as markets priced out an imminent rate cut, the dollar strengthened, and 10-year Treasury yields rose, signaling reduced expectations of near-term easing.","what_it_means":"In new Chair Kevin Warsh's first meeting, the FOMC voted 11-1 to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, the same range held since December 2025. Governor Stephen Miran was the lone dissenter, favoring a 0.25-point cut. The statement noted solid economic growth but inflation still running above the 2% target."},"source_url":"https://www.forbes.com/sites/tylerroush/2026/07/29/fed-likely-holding-interest-rates-unchanged-today-but-some-dissent-expected/","occurred_at":"2026-07-29T16:04:32.412+00:00","published_at":"2026-07-29T16:04:32.412+00:00","brief_url":"https://vectorialdata.com/economia/2026-07-29-us-decision-de-tasas-de-la-fed-fomc-julio-2026/brief.md","page_url":"https://vectorialdata.com/economia/2026-07-29-us-decision-de-tasas-de-la-fed-fomc-julio-2026"},{"date":"2026-07-28","slug":"2026-07-28-us-us-consumer-confidence-index-conference-board-july","event":"US Consumer Confidence Index (Conference Board, July)","country":"US","category":"consumer-confidence","importance":"medium","actual":"90.8","forecast":"92.3","previous":"92.2","unit":"index (1985=100)","surprise":"cooler","affected_markets":[{"why":"A weaker confidence print raises odds the Fed leans dovish, which typically weighs on the dollar","market":"USD","direction":"down"},{"why":"Growth-slowdown fears tend to lift bond prices and lower yields","market":"US Treasuries","direction":"up"},{"why":"Soft consumer sentiment readings often weigh most on consumer-facing stocks","market":"US equities (consumer discretionary)","direction":"down"}],"analysis_en":{"headline":"US Consumer Confidence falls to 90.8 in July (vs. 92.3 expected)","learning":"Consumer confidence isn't a perfect predictor of actual spending, but it's a useful leading indicator — when households worry about jobs, they tend to pull back on big purchases before that shows up in hard spending data. Always check the 'present situation' and 'expectations' sub-indexes separately, since they capture different signals.","market_impact":"The miss adds to bets that the Federal Reserve may lean toward easing, which typically pressures the dollar lower and can lift Treasury bond prices (lower yields) on growth-slowdown fears. Consumer-discretionary stocks often underperform on soft confidence readings, while defensive sectors can hold up better.","what_it_means":"The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index gauges how optimistic US households feel about the economy, jobs, and their income outlook. The drop to 90.8 from 92.2 in June shows growing caution, particularly around current labor market conditions (the 'present situation' component fell 3.6 points)."},"source_url":"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/us-consumer-confidence-edged-down-in-july-302836484.html","occurred_at":"2026-07-28T16:06:16.551+00:00","published_at":"2026-07-28T16:06:16.551+00:00","brief_url":"https://vectorialdata.com/economia/2026-07-28-us-us-consumer-confidence-index-conference-board-july/brief.md","page_url":"https://vectorialdata.com/economia/2026-07-28-us-us-consumer-confidence-index-conference-board-july"},{"date":"2026-07-27","slug":"2026-07-27-us-us-durable-goods-orders-june","event":"US Durable Goods Orders (June)","country":"US","category":"growth","importance":"medium","actual":"0.3%","forecast":"1.6%","previous":"-4.5%","unit":"% MoM","surprise":"cooler","affected_markets":[{"why":"Dollar held steady against a basket of currencies despite the miss","market":"USD","direction":"neutral"},{"why":"Yields eased slightly on signs of cooling business investment","market":"US Treasury yields","direction":"down"},{"why":"Stocks opened higher, with focus already on Wednesday's Fed decision","market":"US equities","direction":"up"}],"analysis_en":{"headline":"US Durable Goods Orders rise just 0.3% in June, far short of the 1.6% forecast","learning":"Durable goods data is notoriously choppy month to month because one large aircraft order can swing the headline number. That's why professional traders focus on the 'ex-transportation' reading and 'core capital goods orders' (nondefense, ex-aircraft) — the best real-time proxy for how much businesses are actually investing in future growth.","market_impact":"The downside surprise signals business investment may be cooling even as AI-related and electronics spending stays hot (computers/electronics orders jumped 3.1%). Markets shrugged it off, though: the dollar held steady, Treasury yields eased slightly, and stocks opened higher, with attention already on Wednesday's Fed decision. A soft print like this reinforces bets that the Fed can afford a cautious-to-dovish stance.","what_it_means":"Durable goods orders track factory bookings for products meant to last three years or more — aircraft, cars, machinery, electronics. It's an early gauge of business investment and manufacturing health. June's headline reading rose only 0.3%, well below the 1.6% consensus, following a revised -4.5% drop in May. Stripping out the volatile transportation component, orders rose 0.6%, also missing the 0.9% forecast."},"source_url":"https://fxstreet.com/news/united-states-durable-goods-orders-rise-03-in-june-vs-16-expected-202607271248","occurred_at":"2026-07-27T16:07:40.188+00:00","published_at":"2026-07-27T16:07:40.188+00:00","brief_url":"https://vectorialdata.com/economia/2026-07-27-us-us-durable-goods-orders-june/brief.md","page_url":"https://vectorialdata.com/economia/2026-07-27-us-us-durable-goods-orders-june"},{"date":"2026-07-24","slug":"2026-07-24-us-us-s-p-global-flash-composite-pmi-july","event":"US S&P Global Flash Composite PMI (July)","country":"US","category":"growth","importance":"high","actual":"53.6","forecast":"52.2","previous":"51.9","unit":"index (50 = no change)","surprise":"mixed","affected_markets":[{"why":"Stronger activity data lowers near-term Fed rate-cut odds, supporting the dollar","market":"US Dollar (DXY)","direction":"up"},{"why":"Resilient growth and renewed price pressures reduce expectations of imminent easing","market":"US Treasury yields","direction":"up"},{"why":"Accelerating services activity signals healthier corporate demand","market":"US equities (cyclicals)","direction":"up"},{"why":"Report flagged intensifying supply-chain delays and renewed price pressures","market":"Inflation expectations","direction":"up"}],"analysis_en":{"headline":"US Composite PMI jumps to 53.6 in July, an 8-month high","learning":"PMIs are 'soft' leading indicators released weeks before official GDP data, giving markets an early read on where the economy is heading. Simple rule: above 50 means expansion, below 50 means contraction. What actually moves markets is the surprise versus consensus forecasts, not just whether the number rose or fell month to month.","market_impact":"Stronger-than-expected activity data lowers the odds of near-term Fed rate cuts, which tends to support the US dollar and push Treasury yields higher. Cyclical stocks often react favorably to accelerating growth, though a renewed pickup in supply-chain delays and price pressures noted in the report keeps inflation risk on traders' radar.","what_it_means":"S&P Global's flash Composite PMI tracks business activity across US services and manufacturing firms. Readings above 50 signal expansion. July's 53.6 beat the 52.2 forecast and June's 51.9, driven mainly by a sharp acceleration in services (53.6 vs. 51.2 in June), while manufacturing held roughly flat at 53.8."},"source_url":"https://www.marketscreener.com/news/s-p-global-july-us-flash-services-pmi-53-6-vs-51-5-estimate-51-2-prior-ce7f51dfdf8afe2d","occurred_at":"2026-07-26T16:04:07.729+00:00","published_at":"2026-07-26T16:04:07.729+00:00","brief_url":"https://vectorialdata.com/economia/2026-07-24-us-us-s-p-global-flash-composite-pmi-july/brief.md","page_url":"https://vectorialdata.com/economia/2026-07-24-us-us-s-p-global-flash-composite-pmi-july"},{"date":"2026-07-23","slug":"2026-07-23-us-us-initial-jobless-claims-week-ended-july-18","event":"US Initial Jobless Claims (week ended July 18)","country":"US","category":"employment","importance":"high","actual":"187,000","forecast":"212,000","previous":"209,000 (revised from 208,000)","unit":"thousands of claims, SA","surprise":"hotter","affected_markets":[{"why":"Fewer layoffs reduce the urgency for near-term Fed rate cuts","market":"US Treasury yields","direction":"up"},{"why":"Strong labor data supports a less dovish Fed stance","market":"US Dollar (DXY)","direction":"up"},{"why":"Split between optimism on consumer strength and fear of rates staying higher for longer","market":"US equities (S&P 500)","direction":"neutral"},{"why":"Lower odds of imminent rate cuts reduce demand for non-yielding assets","market":"Gold","direction":"down"}],"analysis_en":{"headline":"US Initial Jobless Claims Fall to 187,000, Lowest Since 1969","learning":"A single weekly claims print can be distorted by seasonal quirks (like the timing of summer auto-plant retooling shutdowns), so never trade off one headline number. Always check the 4-week moving average and wait for confirmation across two or three releases before concluding the labor market has genuinely shifted.","market_impact":"A labor market this resilient reduces the urgency for the Federal Reserve to cut rates soon, which tends to push Treasury yields and the dollar higher while weighing on gold. Equity reaction is mixed: strong consumer spending power supports corporate earnings, but fear of 'higher for longer' rates can pressure rate-sensitive sectors like tech and real estate.","what_it_means":"Initial jobless claims count how many people file for unemployment benefits for the first time in a week — one of the fastest signals of layoffs, arriving well before the monthly jobs report. In the week ending July 18, claims dropped 22,000 to 187,000, far below the 212,000 consensus and the prior week's upwardly revised 209,000. The steadier 4-week moving average eased to 207,500."},"source_url":"https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf","occurred_at":"2026-07-23T16:05:29.06+00:00","published_at":"2026-07-23T16:05:29.06+00:00","brief_url":"https://vectorialdata.com/economia/2026-07-23-us-us-initial-jobless-claims-week-ended-july-18/brief.md","page_url":"https://vectorialdata.com/economia/2026-07-23-us-us-initial-jobless-claims-week-ended-july-18"},{"date":"2026-07-22","slug":"2026-07-22-uk-uk-consumer-price-index-june-2026","event":"UK Consumer Price Index (June 2026)","country":"UK","category":"inflation","importance":"high","actual":"2.6%","forecast":"2.7%","previous":"2.8%","unit":"% YoY","surprise":"cooler","affected_markets":[{"why":"A cooler-than-expected inflation print raises the odds of future Bank of England rate cuts, which tends to weigh on the currency","market":"GBP (Pound Sterling)","direction":"down"},{"why":"Yields actually rose despite the soft CPI, as investors weighed other factors like rising oil prices against the inflation undershoot","market":"UK Gilts (bonds)","direction":"neutral"},{"why":"Cooling inflation and hopes of eventual rate relief supported UK equities","market":"FTSE 100 (UK stocks)","direction":"up"}],"analysis_en":{"headline":"UK inflation cools to 2.6% YoY in June, below the 2.7% forecast","learning":"When inflation comes in below expectations, markets don't always react in one simple direction — several forces (monetary policy outlook, commodity prices, global capital flows) compete at once. The key habit for any investor is comparing the actual figure against the market consensus, not just the prior month, because it's that surprise gap that moves asset prices.","market_impact":"A cooler-than-expected inflation print typically boosts bets on future Bank of England rate cuts, which tends to weigh on the pound. Even so, UK gilt yields rose anyway, as investors were also focused on rising oil prices. UK stocks (FTSE 100) took the soft inflation data as good news.","what_it_means":"The UK Consumer Price Index tracks how much prices rise over 12 months. In June 2026 it rose 2.6%, down from 2.8% in May and softer than the 2.7% economists expected. That's the lowest reading since March 2025, driven mainly by cheaper fuel, easing food costs, and summer clothing discounts."},"source_url":"https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/june2026","occurred_at":"2026-07-22T16:03:59.359+00:00","published_at":"2026-07-22T16:03:59.36+00:00","brief_url":"https://vectorialdata.com/economia/2026-07-22-uk-uk-consumer-price-index-june-2026/brief.md","page_url":"https://vectorialdata.com/economia/2026-07-22-uk-uk-consumer-price-index-june-2026"},{"date":"2026-07-21","slug":"2026-07-21-gb-uk-public-sector-net-borrowing-june-2026","event":"UK Public Sector Net Borrowing (June 2026)","country":"GB","category":"fiscal","importance":"medium","actual":"16.0","forecast":"18.0","previous":"23.9","unit":"£ billion","surprise":"cooler","affected_markets":[{"why":"Lower-than-expected borrowing eases pressure on the Chancellor ahead of the autumn budget and reduces near-term gilt-supply concerns.","market":"GBP (British Pound)","direction":"up"},{"why":"Smaller deficit means less near-term issuance need, supporting gilt prices and pushing yields modestly lower.","market":"UK Gilts","direction":"up"},{"why":"Domestic fiscal data has limited direct effect on a globally-exposed index, though sentiment on UK assets broadly improves.","market":"FTSE 100","direction":"neutral"}],"analysis_en":{"headline":"UK borrowing falls to £16.0bn in June, coming in below forecasts","learning":"Public borrowing data should be read against expectations and the year-to-date trend, not just the single monthly print. One good month doesn't erase a structural deficit problem, but it can shift near-term expectations for tax policy, spending cuts, or debt issuance — all of which move currency and bond markets.","market_impact":"A smaller-than-expected monthly deficit eases pressure on the Chancellor ahead of the autumn budget and modestly reduces concern about future gilt issuance. Sterling and UK government bonds (gilts) tend to react positively to this kind of fiscal upside surprise, while the effect on global equity markets is limited.","what_it_means":"The UK government borrowed £16.0 billion in June 2026, £7.9 billion less than a year earlier and about £2 billion less than economists had expected. The improvement came mainly from lower inflation-linked debt interest costs as UK inflation has cooled. Even so, borrowing for the fiscal year to date (£57.6 billion) remains above the Office for Budget Responsibility's (OBR) forecast path."},"source_url":"https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/bulletins/publicsectorfinances/june2026","occurred_at":"2026-07-21T16:05:34.801+00:00","published_at":"2026-07-21T16:05:34.801+00:00","brief_url":"https://vectorialdata.com/economia/2026-07-21-gb-uk-public-sector-net-borrowing-june-2026/brief.md","page_url":"https://vectorialdata.com/economia/2026-07-21-gb-uk-public-sector-net-borrowing-june-2026"},{"date":"2026-07-20","slug":"2026-07-20-cn-china-loan-prime-rate-july","event":"China Loan Prime Rate (July)","country":"CN","category":"central-bank","importance":"high","actual":"3.00% (1-year) / 3.50% (5-year)","forecast":"3.00% (1-year) / 3.50% (5-year), unchanged","previous":"3.00% (1-year) / 3.50% (5-year)","unit":"%","surprise":"inline","affected_markets":[{"why":"Decision was fully priced in; PBOC avoided a cut that could pressure the currency further","market":"Chinese yuan (CNY/CNH)","direction":"neutral"},{"why":"No fresh stimulus signal, but door left open for easing if growth keeps slowing","market":"China & Hong Kong equities (CSI 300, Hang Seng)","direction":"neutral"},{"why":"Trades as a liquid China proxy; barely moved (+0.02%) since the hold was expected","market":"Australian dollar (AUD)","direction":"neutral"},{"why":"Weak Q2 GDP (4.3%, slowest since Q4 2022) without accompanying stimulus reinforces a cautious China growth outlook","market":"Global commodities & risk sentiment","direction":"down"}],"analysis_en":{"headline":"China holds Loan Prime Rate steady at 3.00% (1-year) and 3.50% (5-year)","learning":"When a central bank holds rates 'as expected,' the real signal isn't the number itself but the accompanying language — that's where you find hints about the next move. Reading between the lines of these statements often tips off policy shifts before they officially happen.","market_impact":"The hold matched consensus, so the market reaction was muted — the yuan and Chinese equities barely moved, and the Australian dollar (a liquid China proxy) edged up just 0.02%. The takeaway is that Beijing is currently favoring targeted, selective support over an aggressive rate cut, wary of weakening the yuan further or squeezing bank margins.","what_it_means":"The LPR is the People's Bank of China's benchmark lending rate: the 1-year tenor prices corporate loans, while the 5-year tenor anchors mortgage rates nationwide. The PBOC left both unchanged for a 14th straight month, right after Q2 GDP data showed growth slowing to 4.3% year-on-year, the weakest pace in three and a half years."},"source_url":"https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pboc-holds-loan-prime-rates-steady-in-july-202607200115","occurred_at":"2026-07-20T16:04:59.044+00:00","published_at":"2026-07-20T16:04:59.044+00:00","brief_url":"https://vectorialdata.com/economia/2026-07-20-cn-china-loan-prime-rate-july/brief.md","page_url":"https://vectorialdata.com/economia/2026-07-20-cn-china-loan-prime-rate-july"},{"date":"2026-07-17","slug":"2026-07-17-us-university-of-michigan-consumer-sentiment-index-july-preliminary","event":"University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (July, Preliminary)","country":"US","category":"consumer-confidence","importance":"high","actual":"54.4","forecast":"51.0","previous":"49.5","unit":"index points","surprise":"hotter","affected_markets":[{"why":"Stronger-than-expected consumer sentiment signals resilient household spending, supportive for growth and consumer-discretionary earnings","market":"US equities (S&P 500 / Nasdaq)","direction":"up"},{"why":"Better sentiment reduces recession fears and can reinforce a cautious Fed on rate cuts, pushing yields modestly higher","market":"US Treasury yields","direction":"up"},{"why":"Improved confidence supports the soft-landing narrative, mildly dollar-positive","market":"US Dollar Index (DXY)","direction":"up"},{"why":"Sentiment rebound was itself driven by falling gasoline prices, so the causality mostly runs from energy to sentiment rather than the reverse","market":"Oil / energy","direction":"neutral"}],"analysis_en":{"headline":"US Consumer Sentiment jumps to 54.4 in July, well above the 51.0 forecast","learning":"Consumer sentiment is a leading indicator, not a direct measure of actual spending — it captures perceptions, which can shift quickly with things like gas prices or geopolitical tension. That's why it's more useful to track the trend over several months than to react to a single print, and to always compare the actual number against the analyst consensus (not just the prior month) to gauge whether markets were actually surprised.","market_impact":"A positive surprise in consumer sentiment is typically read as a sign household spending is holding up, which tends to support US equities (especially consumer discretionary names) and can push Treasury yields modestly higher as recession fears ease and the Fed has more room to stay cautious on rate cuts. The dollar often gets a small lift from this kind of upside surprise.","what_it_means":"The University of Michigan survey measures how American consumers feel about their personal finances and the broader economy. The preliminary July reading rose to 54.4, up from 49.5 in June, comfortably beating the 51.0 consensus. It's the second straight monthly gain following May's record low, driven mainly by falling gasoline prices. Even so, sentiment remains 12% below year-ago levels."},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2026-07-17/us-consumer-sentiment-rises-to-a-five-month-high-video","occurred_at":"2026-07-17T16:03:49.359+00:00","published_at":"2026-07-17T16:03:49.359+00:00","brief_url":"https://vectorialdata.com/economia/2026-07-17-us-university-of-michigan-consumer-sentiment-index-july-preliminary/brief.md","page_url":"https://vectorialdata.com/economia/2026-07-17-us-university-of-michigan-consumer-sentiment-index-july-preliminary"},{"date":"2026-07-16","slug":"2026-07-16-us-us-retail-sales-june-2026","event":"US Retail Sales (June 2026)","country":"US","category":"growth","importance":"high","actual":"0.2%","forecast":"0.3%","previous":"1.0% (revised from 0.9%)","unit":"% MoM","surprise":"cooler","affected_markets":[{"why":"Softer consumer spending raises bets on Fed rate cuts, pressuring the dollar","market":"US Dollar (DXY)","direction":"down"},{"why":"Weaker growth data supports bond prices as rate-cut odds increase","market":"US Treasuries","direction":"up"},{"why":"Mixed reaction: slower consumer spending is offset by rate-cut hopes","market":"US equities (S&P 500)","direction":"neutral"},{"why":"US consumer data is a global barometer; a cooling reading tempers growth optimism worldwide","market":"Global risk assets","direction":"neutral"}],"analysis_en":{"headline":"US retail sales rise just 0.2% in June, below the 0.3% forecast","learning":"Retail sales is a leading indicator: when consumers pull back spending, it often foreshadows a broader economic slowdown months before it shows up in official GDP figures. Watching the trend over several months — not just one data point — is the key to understanding where the economy is really headed.","market_impact":"Softer-than-expected consumer spending strengthens bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates sooner, which typically weighs on the US dollar and supports Treasury bonds. Because the US consumer is watched globally as a gauge of world economic health, international markets may show a mixed reaction: relief over potential rate cuts, tempered by caution about slowing spending.","what_it_means":"Retail sales track total consumer spending at stores and online — one of the biggest engines of the US economy, since consumption makes up roughly 70% of US GDP. June's reading (+0.2%) came in below the +0.3% economists expected and well below May's upwardly revised +1.0%. Spending fell sharply at gas stations (-5.3%), while online sales (+1.9%) kept the headline from being weaker."},"source_url":"https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdf","occurred_at":"2026-07-16T16:03:58.048+00:00","published_at":"2026-07-16T16:03:58.048+00:00","brief_url":"https://vectorialdata.com/economia/2026-07-16-us-us-retail-sales-june-2026/brief.md","page_url":"https://vectorialdata.com/economia/2026-07-16-us-us-retail-sales-june-2026"},{"date":"2026-07-15","slug":"2026-07-15-us-us-producer-price-index-ppi-june-2026","event":"US Producer Price Index (PPI) – June 2026","country":"US","category":"inflation","importance":"high","actual":"-0.3% MoM (SA) / 5.5% YoY (NSA)","forecast":"0.0% MoM / 6.2% YoY","previous":"0.6% MoM (revised down from 1.1%) / 6.0% YoY","unit":"% change","surprise":"cooler","affected_markets":[{"why":"Softer wholesale inflation boosts bets on Fed rate cuts, pulling yields lower","market":"US Treasury yields","direction":"down"},{"why":"Lower rate-cut-adjusted yield expectations weaken the dollar","market":"US Dollar (DXY)","direction":"down"},{"why":"Cooler inflation and improved rate-cut odds support risk assets","market":"US equities (S&P 500)","direction":"up"},{"why":"Falling real yields and a softer dollar make gold more attractive","market":"Gold","direction":"up"}],"analysis_en":{"headline":"US PPI falls -0.3% in June, well below the 0.0% forecast; annual rate cools to 5.5%","learning":"PPI is a leading indicator — it measures inflation at the wholesale stage, before it reaches consumers. When it falls unexpectedly, as it did today, it often foreshadows softer CPI readings ahead and shifts monetary policy expectations. The key to reading any inflation print isn't just the headline number but the surprise versus consensus: a 'cooler-than-expected' reading typically pushes markets to price in easier monetary policy, moving bonds, currencies, stocks and gold almost immediately.","market_impact":"The cooler-than-expected print reinforces the narrative that pipeline inflation pressures are easing. Treasury yields fell as bets on Fed rate cuts increased, the dollar weakened, US stocks rallied, and gold benefited from lower real yields. For emerging markets and commodities, a softer dollar and lower-rate expectations are typically a tailwind.","what_it_means":"The Producer Price Index (PPI) tracks what US businesses charge for goods and services before they reach consumers, making it a leading signal for where consumer inflation (CPI) may head next. In June, final demand PPI fell 0.3% from May (which was revised down to +0.6% from an initially reported +1.1%), well below the 0.0% economists expected. The drop was led by goods prices (-1.4%), with energy plunging 6.4% and gasoline down 12.0%. On a year-over-year basis, PPI cooled to 5.5%, down from 6.0% in May and below the 6.2% forecast. Core PPI (excluding food and energy) rose just 0.2%, versus the 0.3% expected."},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/15/wholesale-inflation-june-2026-.html","occurred_at":"2026-07-15T16:04:31.31+00:00","published_at":"2026-07-15T16:04:31.31+00:00","brief_url":"https://vectorialdata.com/economia/2026-07-15-us-us-producer-price-index-ppi-june-2026/brief.md","page_url":"https://vectorialdata.com/economia/2026-07-15-us-us-producer-price-index-ppi-june-2026"},{"date":"2026-07-14","slug":"2026-07-14-us-us-cpi-june-2026","event":"US CPI (June 2026)","country":"US","category":"inflation","importance":"high","actual":"3.5%","forecast":"3.8%","previous":"4.2%","unit":"% YoY","surprise":"cooler","affected_markets":[{"why":"10-year fell to 4.555% and 2-year to 4.181% as cooler inflation reduced expected Fed rate hikes","market":"US Treasury Yields","direction":"down"},{"why":"Lower rate-hike odds ease pressure on risk assets","market":"US Equities","direction":"up"},{"why":"Reduced odds of further Fed tightening weigh on the dollar's rate advantage","market":"US Dollar","direction":"down"},{"why":"Falling real yields typically support gold prices","market":"Gold","direction":"up"}],"analysis_en":{"headline":"US CPI (June): annual inflation cools to 3.5%, well below the 3.8% forecast","learning":"When inflation comes in below expectations, markets tend to react sharply because it reduces the odds that a central bank needs to keep raising interest rates. It pays to watch both the headline number and the 'core' figure (which strips out food and energy), since core better reflects the underlying trend — energy prices in particular can swing sharply due to one-off events like geopolitical conflicts.","market_impact":"The cooler-than-expected report shifted Fed rate expectations: the odds of a July rate hike fell from 42% to just 17%, based on futures markets. Treasury yields dropped (the 10-year fell to 4.555%, the 2-year to 4.181%), which tends to lift stocks, weigh on the dollar, and support gold.","what_it_means":"The Consumer Price Index tracks how much prices rise for everyday goods and services. In June, prices were up just 3.5% from a year earlier — down from 4.2% in May — and fell 0.4% versus May, the biggest one-month drop since 2020. The decline was driven mainly by energy prices, which dropped 5.7% for the month after spiking earlier in the year due to the US-Iran conflict. Core inflation (excluding food and energy) was flat on the month and eased to 2.6% year-over-year."},"source_url":"https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_07142026.htm","occurred_at":"2026-07-14T16:04:42.34+00:00","published_at":"2026-07-14T16:04:42.34+00:00","brief_url":"https://vectorialdata.com/economia/2026-07-14-us-us-cpi-june-2026/brief.md","page_url":"https://vectorialdata.com/economia/2026-07-14-us-us-cpi-june-2026"},{"date":"2026-07-10","slug":"2026-07-10-jp-japan-producer-price-index-corporate-goods-price-index-june-2026","event":"Japan Producer Price Index (Corporate Goods Price Index) - June 2026","country":"JP","category":"inflation","importance":"high","actual":"7.1%","forecast":"6.8%","previous":"6.3%","unit":"% YoY","surprise":"hotter","affected_markets":[{"why":"Hotter inflation strengthens the case for further Bank of Japan rate hikes, supporting the yen","market":"Japanese Yen (JPY)","direction":"up"},{"why":"Rate-hike expectations push yields higher, which means bond prices fall","market":"Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs)","direction":"down"},{"why":"Rate-sensitive and export-heavy stocks face pressure from tighter policy expectations and a stronger yen","market":"Nikkei 225 / Japanese equities","direction":"down"}],"analysis_en":{"headline":"Japan's Producer Price Index jumps 7.1% YoY in June, the fastest pace since 2023","learning":"Producer prices tend to lead consumer prices, because rising costs businesses face eventually get passed on to shoppers. Tracking the PPI gives investors an early read on where overall inflation — and central bank policy — may be headed.","market_impact":"As a hotter-than-expected print, it strengthens the case for further Bank of Japan rate hikes. That typically boosts the yen and pushes Japanese government bond yields higher, while rate-sensitive and export-heavy stocks can come under pressure.","what_it_means":"The PPI tracks what Japanese businesses pay for goods at the factory gate, before they reach consumers. June's reading of 7.1% year-on-year beat the 6.8% forecast and accelerated from May's 6.3%, marking the sharpest rise since early 2023."},"source_url":"https://www.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com,2026-07-09:newsml_AZN4T6Z83:0-japan-june-wholesale-prices-rise-7-1-pct-yr-yr/","occurred_at":"2026-07-10T16:04:10.343+00:00","published_at":"2026-07-10T16:04:10.343+00:00","brief_url":"https://vectorialdata.com/economia/2026-07-10-jp-japan-producer-price-index-corporate-goods-price-index-june-2026/brief.md","page_url":"https://vectorialdata.com/economia/2026-07-10-jp-japan-producer-price-index-corporate-goods-price-index-june-2026"},{"date":"2026-07-09","slug":"2026-07-09-china-china-cpi-june-2026","event":"China CPI (June 2026)","country":"China","category":"inflation","importance":"high","actual":"1.0%","forecast":"1.1%","previous":"1.2%","unit":"% YoY","surprise":"cooler","affected_markets":[{"why":"Weaker-than-expected consumer inflation signals soft domestic demand, raising concerns about deflationary pressure in the world's second-largest economy","market":"Chinese equities (CSI 300, Hang Seng)","direction":"down"},{"why":"Softer Chinese consumption data weighs on the demand outlook for commodities, given China's role as the top global consumer","market":"Global commodities (oil, industrial metals)","direction":"down"},{"why":"Persistent low inflation adds pressure on the PBOC to keep policy accommodative, weighing on the currency","market":"Chinese yuan (CNY)","direction":"down"},{"why":"Soft China data reinforces global growth-slowdown concerns, supporting demand for safer assets","market":"Global safe-haven assets (gold, US Treasuries)","direction":"up"}],"analysis_en":{"headline":"China's June CPI rises just 1.0% YoY, below the 1.1% forecast and May's 1.2%","learning":"When a country as large as China reports persistently very low or negative inflation, it isn't necessarily good news — it can signal that consumers aren't spending enough, which drags on growth. Unlike the US or Europe, where the recent worry has been high inflation, in China the risk investors watch for is the opposite: deflation. That's why a 'low' inflation number should always be judged against the specific economy's context — it can be relief in one country and alarm in another.","market_impact":"Weaker-than-expected inflation in the world's second-largest economy revives deflation and soft-demand concerns, typically pressuring Chinese equities, the yuan, and commodities (oil, industrial metals) that depend on Chinese consumption. It also reinforces expectations that China's central bank (PBOC) will keep policy accommodative, and tends to push global investors toward safe havens like gold or US Treasuries.","what_it_means":"CPI measures how much consumer prices are rising. A 1.0% year-on-year reading is very weak for an economy the size of China's, confirming soft domestic demand: food prices fell 1.6% and core CPI (excluding food and energy) also came in at just 1.0%. Meanwhile factory-gate prices (PPI) rose 4.1% YoY, showing the downward pressure is coming more from consumer spending than production costs."},"source_url":"https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202607/1365539.shtml","occurred_at":"2026-07-12T16:03:30.203+00:00","published_at":"2026-07-12T16:03:30.203+00:00","brief_url":"https://vectorialdata.com/economia/2026-07-09-china-china-cpi-june-2026/brief.md","page_url":"https://vectorialdata.com/economia/2026-07-09-china-china-cpi-june-2026"},{"date":"2026-07-08","slug":"2026-07-08-us-actas-de-la-fomc-reunion-del-16-17-de-junio","event":"Actas de la FOMC (reunión del 16-17 de junio)","country":"US","category":"central-bank","importance":"high","actual":"Tasa mantenida en 3.50%-3.75%; comité dividido 9 de 19 miembros a favor de al menos una subida más en 2026","forecast":"Se esperaba un tono más neutral; el mercado no anticipaba que se retirara la señal de recorte","previous":"3.50%-3.75% (sin cambios); en marzo el \"dot plot\" contemplaba un recorte en 2026","unit":"% (rango objetivo de la Fed)","surprise":"hotter","affected_markets":[{"why":"El tono más duro de la Fed y el repunte del petróleo presionaron a las tecnológicas (Nasdaq -1.16%)","market":"Nasdaq / acciones tecnológicas","direction":"down"},{"why":"Menos probabilidad de recortes cercanos empuja al alza los rendimientos","market":"Rendimientos del Tesoro de EE.UU.","direction":"up"},{"why":"Expectativas de tasas más altas por más tiempo favorecen al dólar","market":"Dólar (DXY)","direction":"up"},{"why":"Tensión con Irán se suma al riesgo inflacionario que preocupa a la Fed","market":"Petróleo (Brent/WTI)","direction":"up"},{"why":"Cobertura ante mayor inflación esperada pese a tasas más altas","market":"Oro","direction":"up"}],"analysis_en":{"headline":"Fed minutes: rates held at 3.50%-3.75%, but committee splits 9-9 on another 2026 hike","learning":"Fed minutes are released three weeks after each meeting and can move markets even though the rate decision is already known, because they reveal how divided the committee is and where projections are heading (the 'dot plot'). What matters to investors isn't today's rate but where the committee's consensus is trending — a 9-9 split like this one signals more volatility at upcoming meetings.","market_impact":"September hike odds rose to roughly 50-58% (per CME FedWatch), after having fallen to around 66%... then lower on June's soft jobs report. The hawkish tone pressured the Nasdaq (-1.16%) and pushed Treasury yields higher, while Brent crude topped $76 on the Iran crisis, reinforcing fears of stickier inflation.","what_it_means":"Minutes from the June 16-17 meeting, released today at 2pm ET, show the Fed unanimously held its benchmark rate at 3.50%-3.75% but stripped out language that had hinted at upcoming cuts. Of 19 officials, 9 now see at least one more hike needed this year (versus 8 seeing no change and just 1 seeing a cut), and 2026 inflation projections were raised to 3.6% headline and 3.3% core. Chair Kevin Warsh withheld his own dot, leaving the minutes as the only official read on a possible September hike."},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/08/with-minutes-due-feds-family-fight-over-interest-rates-could-drag-on.html","occurred_at":"2026-07-08T16:04:43.659+00:00","published_at":"2026-07-08T16:04:43.66+00:00","brief_url":"https://vectorialdata.com/economia/2026-07-08-us-actas-de-la-fomc-reunion-del-16-17-de-junio/brief.md","page_url":"https://vectorialdata.com/economia/2026-07-08-us-actas-de-la-fomc-reunion-del-16-17-de-junio"},{"date":"2026-07-07","slug":"2026-07-07-us-us-international-trade-balance-goods-services-may-2026","event":"US International Trade Balance (Goods & Services) – May 2026","country":"US","category":"trade","importance":"high","actual":"-$77.6B","forecast":"-$78.5B","previous":"-$54.6B (revised)","unit":"USD billions, monthly trade deficit","surprise":"mixed","affected_markets":[{"why":"Result landed almost exactly on the Reuters consensus, so FX reaction was muted despite the sharp month-on-month jump.","market":"US Dollar (DXY)","direction":"neutral"},{"why":"A wider deficit driven by import front-running reinforces expectations that net trade will subtract from Q2 GDP, supporting safe-haven demand for bonds.","market":"US Treasury yields","direction":"down"},{"why":"Record capital-goods imports signal firms are still investing/stockpiling equipment, seen as a sign of resilient business demand even as it widens the deficit.","market":"US equities (industrials/manufacturing)","direction":"neutral"},{"why":"A rebound in US imports supports demand for goods from major trading partners.","market":"Emerging-market exporters (MXN, CNY, CAD)","direction":"up"}],"analysis_en":{"headline":"US trade deficit jumps to $77.6B in May on record capital-goods imports","learning":"The trade balance is a lagging indicator — it confirms trends already underway in consumption and investment rather than predicting them. A wider deficit isn't automatically 'bad'; it often reflects strong domestic demand. But when it coincides with tariff tensions, markets pay closer attention because it can signal shifts in trade policy and GDP growth ahead.","market_impact":"Because the actual number nearly matched consensus, the immediate reaction in the dollar and equities was muted. Still, the sharp month-on-month widening matters because net exports subtract from GDP: a bigger Q2 trade gap could trim US growth estimates and support demand for Treasuries as a safe haven. Markets are also watching whether the import surge reflects companies front-running potential new tariffs.","what_it_means":"The trade balance measures the gap between what a country exports and imports. In May, the US exported $317.7B and imported $395.3B, leaving a $77.6B deficit versus a revised $54.6B in April. The jump was driven mainly by record imports of capital goods (machinery and equipment), while exports fell $10.5B. The figure came in almost exactly in line with the market consensus of -$78.5B."},"source_url":"https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/us-international-trade-goods-and-services-may-2026","occurred_at":"2026-07-07T16:04:56.583+00:00","published_at":"2026-07-07T16:04:56.583+00:00","brief_url":"https://vectorialdata.com/economia/2026-07-07-us-us-international-trade-balance-goods-services-may-2026/brief.md","page_url":"https://vectorialdata.com/economia/2026-07-07-us-us-international-trade-balance-goods-services-may-2026"},{"date":"2026-07-06","slug":"2026-07-06-us-ism-services-pmi-june-2026","event":"ISM Services PMI (June 2026)","country":"US","category":"growth","importance":"high","actual":"54.0","forecast":"54.2","previous":"54.5","unit":"index (PMI, 50 = breakeven)","surprise":"cooler","affected_markets":[{"why":"Softer-than-expected services growth trims expectations of a hawkish Fed","market":"US Dollar (DXY)","direction":"down"},{"why":"Cooling services activity supports bets on Fed rate cuts later this year","market":"US Treasury yields","direction":"down"},{"why":"Still-expansionary reading with improving employment eases recession fears, feeding the soft-landing narrative","market":"US equities (S&P 500)","direction":"up"}],"analysis_en":{"headline":"US ISM Services PMI slips to 54.0 in June (vs. 54.5 prior)","learning":"The ISM Services PMI matters because services dominate the US economy. When the index slows but stays above 50, markets typically read it as a 'soft landing' — growth decelerating, not collapsing. Always check the sub-indices (new orders, employment, prices paid): they often signal where the headline number is heading next.","market_impact":"The mild slowdown — alongside prices paid falling to a four-month low and employment improving to 51.2 — reinforces a picture of a gradually cooling economy without recession warning signs. That combination tends to weigh slightly on the dollar and Treasury yields while supporting equities, as it feeds expectations that the Fed has room to ease policy.","what_it_means":"The ISM Services PMI tracks activity across more than 70% of the US economy — trade, transportation, finance, and other services. Readings above 50 signal expansion. June's 54.0 came in below May's 54.5 and just under the 54.2 consensus estimate, but still marks the 24th straight month of sector growth."},"source_url":"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/services-pmi-at-54-june-2026-ism-services-pmi-report-302817275.html","occurred_at":"2026-07-06T16:03:36.691+00:00","published_at":"2026-07-06T16:03:36.691+00:00","brief_url":"https://vectorialdata.com/economia/2026-07-06-us-ism-services-pmi-june-2026/brief.md","page_url":"https://vectorialdata.com/economia/2026-07-06-us-ism-services-pmi-june-2026"},{"date":"2026-07-02","slug":"2026-07-02-us-us-nonfarm-payrolls-june-2026","event":"US Nonfarm Payrolls (June 2026)","country":"US","category":"employment","importance":"high","actual":"57,000","forecast":"115,000","previous":"129,000 (revised down from 144,000)","unit":"net jobs added (change in nonfarm payrolls)","surprise":"cooler","affected_markets":[{"why":"Weak job creation raises bets on faster Fed rate cuts","market":"US Dollar (DXY)","direction":"down"},{"why":"Yields fall as traders price in more monetary easing","market":"US Treasury bonds","direction":"up"},{"why":"Lower real yields and safe-haven demand on growth concerns","market":"Gold","direction":"up"},{"why":"Relief on rate-cut hopes offset by concern over a cooling labor market","market":"US equities (S&P 500)","direction":"neutral"}],"analysis_en":{"headline":"US Nonfarm Payrolls: only +57,000 jobs added in June (vs. +115,000 expected)","learning":"When payrolls miss consensus by a wide margin, look past the headline number: prior-month revisions and the participation rate tell the fuller story. A falling unemployment rate isn't always good news if it happens because fewer people are looking for work.","market_impact":"Such a weak print raises expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates soon, which tends to weaken the dollar, lift Treasury bonds (yields down), and support gold. Stocks react in mixed fashion: relief over potential rate cuts, tempered by concern about a cooling economy.","what_it_means":"The U.S. jobs report (Nonfarm Payrolls) tracks the monthly change in employment outside farming, government, and a few other categories. It's one of the most closely watched indicators because it signals the real health of the labor market and hints at where consumer spending and wage inflation are headed. June 2026 added just 57,000 jobs, far below the 115,000 consensus and May's downwardly revised 129,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, but only because the labor force participation rate dropped to 61.5% - the lowest since March 2021 - a sign of weakness, not strength."},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/02/jobs-report-june-2026-.html","occurred_at":"2026-07-05T16:03:39.785+00:00","published_at":"2026-07-05T16:03:39.786+00:00","brief_url":"https://vectorialdata.com/economia/2026-07-02-us-us-nonfarm-payrolls-june-2026/brief.md","page_url":"https://vectorialdata.com/economia/2026-07-02-us-us-nonfarm-payrolls-june-2026"},{"date":"2026-07-01","slug":"2026-07-01-us-us-ism-manufacturing-pmi-june-2026","event":"US ISM Manufacturing PMI (June 2026)","country":"US","category":"growth","importance":"high","actual":"53.3","forecast":null,"previous":"54.0","unit":"index points (>50 = expansion)","surprise":"cooler","affected_markets":[{"why":"Weaker-than-expected factory growth increased bets that the Fed has room to keep cutting rates","market":"US Dollar Index (DXY)","direction":"down"},{"why":"Softer PMI boosted safe-haven and rate-cut-linked buying, pushing spot gold toward $4,100/oz","market":"Gold","direction":"up"},{"why":"Slower manufacturing growth reinforced expectations of continued Fed easing","market":"US Treasury yields","direction":"down"},{"why":"Index stayed above the 50 expansion threshold, limiting the reaction despite the deceleration","market":"US equities (S&P 500)","direction":"neutral"}],"analysis_en":{"headline":"US ISM Manufacturing PMI slips to 53.3 in June (from 54.0 in May)","learning":"PMI surveys are a leading indicator: because they capture purchasing managers' real-time views, they often signal turning points before slower-moving data like GDP. What matters isn't only the 50 threshold — the month-over-month direction of change (cooling within expansion, or accelerating within contraction) is often what moves markets most.","market_impact":"The softer-than-expected print boosted bets that the Fed has room to keep cutting rates, pulling the dollar and Treasury yields lower while gold pushed toward $4,100/oz. Equities were largely steady since the index still points to expansion, just at a slower pace.","what_it_means":"The ISM Manufacturing PMI surveys purchasing managers to gauge whether U.S. factory activity is growing or shrinking. Above 50 means expansion. June marked the sixth straight month of growth, but the pace cooled from May's multi-year high."},"source_url":"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/manufacturing-pmi-at-53-3-june-2026-ism-manufacturing-pmi-report-302814991.html","occurred_at":"2026-07-01T16:04:56.167+00:00","published_at":"2026-07-01T16:04:56.168+00:00","brief_url":"https://vectorialdata.com/economia/2026-07-01-us-us-ism-manufacturing-pmi-june-2026/brief.md","page_url":"https://vectorialdata.com/economia/2026-07-01-us-us-ism-manufacturing-pmi-june-2026"},{"date":"2026-06-30","slug":"2026-06-30-us-us-consumer-sentiment-umich-final-june-2026","event":"US Consumer Sentiment - UMich Final (June 2026)","country":"US","category":"consumer-confidence","importance":"high","actual":"49.5","forecast":"50.0","previous":"44.8","unit":"index","surprise":"cooler","affected_markets":[{"why":"Modest improvement in sentiment limits downside, but index remains at 50-year lows, capping upside for risk assets","market":"S&P 500","direction":"neutral"},{"why":"Depressed consumer confidence reinforces expectations of Fed rate cuts, pushing yields lower and bond prices higher","market":"US Treasuries","direction":"up"},{"why":"Weak sentiment supports the case for Fed easing, reducing dollar yield appeal","market":"USD","direction":"down"},{"why":"Uncertainty and potential rate cut expectations boost demand for safe-haven assets","market":"Gold","direction":"up"},{"why":"Persistently low confidence signals households may curtail spending on non-essential goods","market":"Consumer Discretionary (XLY)","direction":"down"}],"analysis_en":{"headline":"US Consumer Sentiment UMich Final (June 2026): 49.5 — rebounds from 44.8 but remains near 50-year lows","learning":"Consumer sentiment surveys measure how confident households feel about current and future economic conditions. Because consumer spending drives roughly 70% of US GDP, prolonged weakness in this index is a reliable early-warning signal for economic slowdown. Readings consistently below 50 have historically preceded recessions or sharp drops in retail sales. Smart traders cross-check sentiment data with retail sales figures and payrolls before drawing firm conclusions.","market_impact":"The modest improvement slightly eases near-term recession fears, potentially offering mild support to equities and risk assets. However, the persistently depressed level weighs on consumer-facing sectors — retail, autos, and housing. The Fed will closely monitor this: sustained low confidence reinforces the case for interest rate cuts in the second half of 2026, which would push Treasury yields lower and weaken the US dollar.","what_it_means":"The University of Michigan's final consumer sentiment index for June came in at 49.5, up from May's multi-decade low of 44.8 and above the preliminary reading of 48.9. The improvement was driven mainly by lower gasoline prices and some easing of tariff anxiety. Despite the rebound, the index remains the second-lowest reading since the 1970s, signaling deep and persistent uncertainty among American households."},"source_url":"https://www.indexbox.io/blog/us-consumer-sentiment-rises-in-june-2026-on-lower-gas-prices-but-remains-near-historic-lows/","occurred_at":"2026-06-30T16:06:34.414+00:00","published_at":"2026-06-30T16:06:34.414+00:00","brief_url":"https://vectorialdata.com/economia/2026-06-30-us-us-consumer-sentiment-umich-final-june-2026/brief.md","page_url":"https://vectorialdata.com/economia/2026-06-30-us-us-consumer-sentiment-umich-final-june-2026"},{"date":"2026-06-26","slug":"2026-06-26-us-us-michigan-consumer-sentiment-final-june-2026","event":"US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (June 2026)","country":"US","category":"consumer-confidence","importance":"high","actual":"49.5","forecast":"50.0","previous":"44.8","unit":"Index","surprise":"cooler","affected_markets":[{"why":"Below-consensus reading signals weak consumer spending ahead, pressuring discretionary stocks","market":"S&P 500 / US Equities","direction":"down"},{"why":"Lower inflation expectations (4.6%) and soft demand reduce pressure on the Fed to hike further","market":"US Treasuries","direction":"up"},{"why":"Weaker consumer confidence may delay Fed tightening, softening the dollar","market":"USD (Dollar)","direction":"down"},{"why":"Risk-off sentiment and softer dollar tend to support gold prices","market":"Gold","direction":"up"}],"analysis_en":{"headline":"U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final June 2026: 49.5, misses 50.0 consensus","learning":"Consumer sentiment is a leading indicator — it typically shifts before actual spending changes. When the index stays depressed for extended periods, it often precedes a slowdown in GDP growth. Investors should watch both the level and the trajectory: a recovery from record lows, even an incomplete one, can signal stabilisation before a broader rebound.","market_impact":"The miss vs. consensus keeps pressure on consumer-facing sectors — discretionary stocks and retailers may underperform. Lower inflation expectations (4.6%) could give the Fed room to pause, supporting Treasuries and mildly weighing on the US dollar. The partial recovery from historic lows is a tentatively positive signal, but sustained weakness keeps recession risk on the table.","what_it_means":"The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index posted a final June 2026 reading of 49.5, recovering from a record low of 44.8 in May but falling short of the 50.0 consensus forecast. The rebound was largely driven by easing gasoline prices. Notably, 12-month inflation expectations fell to 4.6% from 4.8%, and over 50% of consumers still cited high prices as a burden on personal finances for a third consecutive month. The index remains the second-lowest reading on record since the 1970s."},"source_url":"https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/consumer-confidence","occurred_at":"2026-06-27T16:06:56.979+00:00","published_at":"2026-06-27T16:06:56.981+00:00","brief_url":"https://vectorialdata.com/economia/2026-06-26-us-us-michigan-consumer-sentiment-final-june-2026/brief.md","page_url":"https://vectorialdata.com/economia/2026-06-26-us-us-michigan-consumer-sentiment-final-june-2026"},{"date":"2026-06-25","slug":"2026-06-25-us-us-pce-inflation-may-2026","event":"US PCE Inflation (May 2026)","country":"US","category":"inflation","importance":"high","actual":"4.1%","forecast":"3.9%","previous":"3.8%","unit":"% YoY","surprise":"hotter","affected_markets":[{"why":"Higher inflation reduces expectations of near-term Fed rate cuts, pushing yields higher","market":"US Treasuries (10Y yield)","direction":"up"},{"why":"Hot inflation reinforces a higher-for-longer rate outlook, supporting the dollar","market":"US Dollar (DXY)","direction":"up"},{"why":"Rate cut hopes fade with sticky inflation, weighing on equity valuations","market":"S&P 500","direction":"down"},{"why":"Stronger dollar offsets inflation hedge demand; net effect uncertain short-term","market":"Gold","direction":"neutral"}],"analysis_en":{"headline":"US PCE Inflation May 2026: Rises to 4.1% YoY, Highest Since April 2023","learning":"Core PCE is the single most important inflation number the Fed watches. When it stays well above the 2% target, rate cuts get delayed — which ripples across bonds, currencies, and stocks. Tracking this release monthly gives you a real-time read on the Fed's next move before the official announcement.","market_impact":"A hotter-than-expected print pushes Fed rate-cut expectations further out. Treasury yields are likely to rise, the US dollar may strengthen, and equity markets could face headwinds as investors reprice a 'higher for longer' rate environment.","what_it_means":"The PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) price index is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge. In May, headline PCE jumped from 3.8% to 4.1% year-over-year — the highest reading since April 2023 — partly driven by an energy shock from the ongoing Iran conflict. Core PCE (excluding food and energy) rose to 3.4% annually, its highest since October 2023. Personal income also beat expectations, rising 0.7% for the month vs. the 0.4% forecast."},"source_url":"https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-may-2026","occurred_at":"2026-06-25T16:05:44.16+00:00","published_at":"2026-06-25T16:05:44.16+00:00","brief_url":"https://vectorialdata.com/economia/2026-06-25-us-us-pce-inflation-may-2026/brief.md","page_url":"https://vectorialdata.com/economia/2026-06-25-us-us-pce-inflation-may-2026"},{"date":"2026-06-24","slug":"2026-06-24-us-us-new-home-sales-may-2026","event":"US New Home Sales (May 2026)","country":"US","category":"housing","importance":"high","actual":"580,000","forecast":null,"previous":"626,000","unit":"Thousands SAAR","surprise":"cooler","affected_markets":[{"why":"Weaker demand signals lower revenues for homebuilders; 10.3-month inventory overhang raises margin pressure","market":"US Homebuilder Stocks (XHB)","direction":"down"},{"why":"Softer housing data reinforces the case for eventual Fed rate cuts, boosting bond prices","market":"US Treasury Bonds","direction":"up"},{"why":"Weak housing data signals economic slowdown, reducing dollar demand","market":"USD","direction":"down"},{"why":"Housing weakness signals that elevated rates are restraining the economy","market":"S&P 500 (rate-sensitive sectors)","direction":"down"}],"analysis_en":{"headline":"US New Home Sales (May 2026): 580,000 annualized units, down 7.3% from April","learning":"New home sales are recorded at contract signing — making them a more real-time gauge than existing-home sales, which are counted at closing weeks later. A supply above 6 months historically favors buyers; at 10.3 months, builders may need to cut prices or offer concessions to work off bloated inventory. Watch the months-of-supply figure alongside the headline number.","market_impact":"The sharp drop signals continued housing-sector weakness as elevated borrowing costs weigh on buyer demand. Homebuilder stocks (D.R. Horton, Lennar, PulteGroup) face downside pressure, and residential investment may drag on GDP growth. Treasury bonds could rally if markets read the data as reinforcing the case for eventual Fed rate cuts.","what_it_means":"The US Census Bureau and HUD reported that sales of new single-family homes fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 580,000 in May 2026 — a 7.3% decline from April's pace of 626,000. Unsold inventory climbed to a 10.3-month supply, well above the 6-month threshold that signals a balanced market."},"source_url":"https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales_202605.pdf","occurred_at":"2026-06-24T16:06:48.055+00:00","published_at":"2026-06-24T16:06:48.055+00:00","brief_url":"https://vectorialdata.com/economia/2026-06-24-us-us-new-home-sales-may-2026/brief.md","page_url":"https://vectorialdata.com/economia/2026-06-24-us-us-new-home-sales-may-2026"},{"date":"2026-06-23","slug":"2026-06-23-us-s-p-global-flash-us-composite-pmi-june-2026","event":"S&P Global Flash US Composite PMI (June 2026)","country":"US","category":"growth","importance":"high","actual":"52.2","forecast":"51.8","previous":"51.5","unit":"index (50 = neutral)","surprise":"hotter","affected_markets":[{"why":"Stronger-than-expected economic activity signals corporate earnings resilience.","market":"S&P 500 / US Equities","direction":"up"},{"why":"Hot PMI data reduces expectations of near-term Fed rate cuts, supporting the dollar.","market":"USD (Dollar Index)","direction":"up"},{"why":"Solid growth data pushes yields higher as rate-cut bets fade.","market":"US Treasury Yields","direction":"up"},{"why":"Dollar strength and a delayed Fed easing path weigh on non-yielding gold.","market":"Gold","direction":"down"}],"analysis_en":{"headline":"US Flash Composite PMI climbs to 52.2 in June 2026 — highest since January; Manufacturing surges to 55.7","learning":"Flash PMIs are released roughly three weeks into the reference month, making them the earliest broad signal of economic momentum. A manufacturing PMI consistently above 55 is considered a sign of strong industrial expansion. Watch the employment and price sub-indices within PMI reports — they frequently foreshadow official payrolls and inflation data published weeks later.","market_impact":"The stronger-than-expected manufacturing print reinforces US economic resilience, potentially keeping the Fed on hold for longer and supporting the dollar and equities in the near term. However, employment fell for a second consecutive month as companies cut costs, and persistent supply chain delays are keeping input prices elevated — limiting upside optimism and sustaining inflation concerns.","what_it_means":"The S&P Global Flash Composite PMI tracks private sector activity across manufacturing and services. A reading above 50 signals expansion. June's composite rose to 52.2 from 51.5, led by manufacturing output growing at its fastest pace in six years (Manufacturing PMI: 55.7 vs. 54.6 forecast, 55.1 prior) and a solid uptick in services to 51.3. New orders grew, supported in services by the start of the FIFA World Cup and in manufacturing by clients front-running supply disruptions from the Middle East conflict."},"source_url":"https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/35c60149cdbe461fb6bc3c959a58a551","occurred_at":"2026-06-23T16:06:02.629+00:00","published_at":"2026-06-23T16:06:02.63+00:00","brief_url":"https://vectorialdata.com/economia/2026-06-23-us-s-p-global-flash-us-composite-pmi-june-2026/brief.md","page_url":"https://vectorialdata.com/economia/2026-06-23-us-s-p-global-flash-us-composite-pmi-june-2026"},{"date":"2026-06-22","slug":"2026-06-22-ca-canada-cpi-may-2026","event":"Canada CPI (May 2026)","country":"CA","category":"inflation","importance":"high","actual":"3.2%","forecast":"3.0%","previous":"2.8%","unit":"% YoY","surprise":"hotter","affected_markets":[{"why":"Hotter-than-expected inflation reduces rate-cut probability, supporting the Canadian dollar","market":"CAD/USD","direction":"up"},{"why":"Higher inflation erodes bond returns and pushes yields up as rate-cut bets recede","market":"Canada Government Bonds","direction":"down"},{"why":"Rate uncertainty and higher input costs weigh on equities","market":"TSX (S&P/TSX Composite)","direction":"down"},{"why":"Energy prices are the cause of the CPI spike, not the consequence — move already priced in","market":"Oil/Energy","direction":"neutral"}],"analysis_en":{"headline":"Canada CPI (May 2026): 3.2% YoY — Hotter Than Expected","learning":"Energy-driven CPI spikes are inherently volatile and can reverse quickly when supply disruptions ease. Traders should watch 'core' or 'trimmed-mean' inflation measures, which strip out food and energy, to judge whether price pressures are broad-based or narrow. A headline beat does not automatically mean a central bank will hike — context and core trends always matter more.","market_impact":"The upside surprise trimmed rate-cut bets for the Bank of Canada's July meeting. The Canadian dollar firmed against the USD and government bond yields rose. While core inflation staying near 2% provides some reassurance, headline CPI at 3.2% — 120 basis points above the 2% target — keeps the BoC in a difficult policy position heading into the second half of 2026.","what_it_means":"Canada's Consumer Price Index rose 3.2% year-over-year in May, beating the 3.0% consensus and accelerating from 2.8% in April. Gasoline surged 33.2% YoY — tied to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid Middle East tensions — while food prices climbed 4.3% for the 16th consecutive month above headline inflation. The Bank of Canada's preferred core measures held near target at 2.0–2.1%."},"source_url":"https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/260622/dq260622a-eng.htm","occurred_at":"2026-06-22T16:05:37.592+00:00","published_at":"2026-06-22T16:05:37.592+00:00","brief_url":"https://vectorialdata.com/economia/2026-06-22-ca-canada-cpi-may-2026/brief.md","page_url":"https://vectorialdata.com/economia/2026-06-22-ca-canada-cpi-may-2026"},{"date":"2026-06-19","slug":"2026-06-19-gb-uk-retail-sales-may-2026","event":"UK Retail Sales (May 2026)","country":"GB","category":"growth","importance":"high","actual":"+1.2%","forecast":"+0.5%","previous":"-1.0%","unit":"% MoM","surprise":"hotter","affected_markets":[{"why":"Strong consumer data reduced Bank of England rate-cut expectations, boosting sterling","market":"GBP/USD","direction":"up"},{"why":"Better-than-expected household spending directly lifts consumer and retail sector stocks","market":"FTSE 100 (retail & consumer)","direction":"up"},{"why":"Bond prices fell as traders pushed back bets on near-term BoE rate cuts","market":"UK Gilts (10-yr)","direction":"down"},{"why":"GBP strengthened across the board, pushing EUR/GBP lower","market":"EUR/GBP","direction":"down"}],"analysis_en":{"headline":"UK Retail Sales (May 2026): +1.2% MoM — more than double the forecast","learning":"Retail sales that beat consensus by a wide margin are a powerful signal that a central bank may stay on hold longer than expected. The key metric is not just the monthly percentage change, but the gap between 'actual' and 'forecast' — a large positive surprise like this delays rate-cut bets, strengthens the currency, and pushes bond yields higher. Always compare actual vs. consensus before deciding whether data is bullish or bearish.","market_impact":"Sterling rallied sharply on the news, while UK government bonds (gilts) sold off as traders priced out near-term Bank of England rate cuts. UK consumer and retail stocks outperformed on the FTSE 100. The strong data reinforced the view that the BoE will remain cautious about easing monetary policy.","what_it_means":"Retail sales measure household spending across physical and online stores. May's 1.2% monthly gain was more than double the Reuters consensus forecast of 0.5% and fully reversed April's 1.0% slump. Warm weather and retailer promotions boosted department stores and non-food categories, signaling resilient UK consumer demand."},"source_url":"https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/retailindustry/bulletins/retailsales/may2026","occurred_at":"2026-06-21T16:06:06.985+00:00","published_at":"2026-06-21T16:06:06.986+00:00","brief_url":"https://vectorialdata.com/economia/2026-06-19-gb-uk-retail-sales-may-2026/brief.md","page_url":"https://vectorialdata.com/economia/2026-06-19-gb-uk-retail-sales-may-2026"},{"date":"2026-06-18","slug":"2026-06-18-gb-bank-of-england-rate-decision-june-2026","event":"Bank of England Rate Decision (June 2026)","country":"GB","category":"central-bank","importance":"high","actual":"3.75%","forecast":"3.75%","previous":"3.75%","unit":"% Bank Rate","surprise":"hotter","affected_markets":[{"why":"More hawkish vote signals rate cuts are not imminent, supporting sterling","market":"GBP/USD","direction":"up"},{"why":"Yields rise as 2 MPC members favour a hike, reducing rate-cut expectations","market":"UK Gilts (2Y)","direction":"down"},{"why":"Rate hold limits immediate equity relief; hawkish shift adds mild headwind to valuations","market":"FTSE 100","direction":"neutral"},{"why":"GBP strengthens against euro on relatively tighter UK policy stance","market":"EUR/GBP","direction":"down"}],"analysis_en":{"headline":"Bank of England Holds at 3.75% — Vote Turns More Hawkish (7-2)","learning":"When a central bank holds rates but the vote split becomes more hawkish, it often signals the next policy move will be a hike rather than a cut. Tracking MPC or FOMC vote tallies — not just the headline rate decision — gives traders an early edge in anticipating future policy direction.","market_impact":"Sterling is expected to firm modestly as the more hawkish vote signals that rate cuts are off the table for now. Short-dated UK gilt yields may tick higher as markets reprice the probability of a future hike. Global equity markets will monitor whether other major central banks are also staying restrictive longer than anticipated.","what_it_means":"The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee voted 7-2 to keep Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75%. Two members dissented in favour of a 25 basis-point hike to 4%, up from just one dissenter at the April meeting. UK CPI inflation stands at 2.8%, still above the 2% target, and the Bank flagged volatile global energy markets tied to Middle East tensions as a source of ongoing uncertainty."},"source_url":"https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/june-2026","occurred_at":"2026-06-18T16:05:50.214+00:00","published_at":"2026-06-18T16:05:50.225+00:00","brief_url":"https://vectorialdata.com/economia/2026-06-18-gb-bank-of-england-rate-decision-june-2026/brief.md","page_url":"https://vectorialdata.com/economia/2026-06-18-gb-bank-of-england-rate-decision-june-2026"},{"date":"2026-06-17","slug":"2026-06-17-us-fomc-rate-decision-june-2026","event":"FOMC Rate Decision (June 2026)","country":"US","category":"central-bank","importance":"high","actual":"3.50%–3.75%","forecast":"Hold (sin cambio)","previous":"3.50%–3.75%","unit":"% (tasa de fondos federales)","surprise":"mixed","affected_markets":[{"why":"El tono hawkish del dot plot impulsó la demanda de dólares al anticipar tasas más altas por más tiempo.","market":"US Dollar (DXY)","direction":"up"},{"why":"La revisión al alza del dot plot elevó las expectativas de tasas futuras, presionando los precios de bonos a la baja y los rendimientos al alza.","market":"US Treasury Yields","direction":"up"},{"why":"La perspectiva de tasas más restrictivas pesó sobre las valoraciones de renta variable.","market":"S&P 500","direction":"down"},{"why":"Un dólar más fuerte y rendimientos reales más altos redujeron el atractivo del oro como activo refugio.","market":"Gold (XAU/USD)","direction":"down"}],"analysis_en":{"headline":"Fed holds rates at 3.50%–3.75%; dot plot flips to hike — 4th consecutive hold","learning":"A rate hold doesn't always equal a dovish Fed. The dot plot — the grid of each policymaker's individual rate forecast — often moves markets more than the decision itself. When the median dot shifts up, it signals tighter future conditions and triggers an immediate repricing in bonds, equities, and currencies, even when today's rate stays the same.","market_impact":"The hawkish dot plot pushed the US dollar higher and lifted Treasury yields across the curve. Equities fell under pressure from the 'higher for longer' repricing. Gold and risk assets weakened as real yields rose.","what_it_means":"The Federal Reserve voted 12-0 to keep its benchmark rate unchanged for the fourth straight meeting, the first chaired by new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. The decision itself was fully expected; the shock came from the dot plot: the median 2026 rate projection jumped to 3.8% from 3.4% in March, with 9 of 18 officials now projecting at least one hike before year-end. The Fed also raised its 2026 PCE inflation forecast to 3.6% (up from 2.7%), citing elevated energy prices linked to the Middle East conflict."},"source_url":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260617a.htm","occurred_at":"2026-06-20T16:05:09.048+00:00","published_at":"2026-06-20T16:05:09.049+00:00","brief_url":"https://vectorialdata.com/economia/2026-06-17-us-fomc-rate-decision-june-2026/brief.md","page_url":"https://vectorialdata.com/economia/2026-06-17-us-fomc-rate-decision-june-2026"},{"date":"2026-06-12","slug":"2026-06-12-us-us-confianza-del-consumidor-u-michigan-preliminar-junio","event":"US Confianza del Consumidor U. Michigan (preliminar, junio)","country":"US","category":"consumer-sentiment","importance":"medium","actual":"48.9","forecast":"46.0","previous":"44.8","unit":"índice (puntos)","surprise":"hotter","affected_markets":[{"why":"Beat consensus (normally USD-bullish) but cooling inflation expectations offset it; the dollar barely moved on release.","market":"USD (Dollar Index)","direction":"neutral"},{"why":"Better consumer mood plus falling inflation expectations support risk appetite and rate-cut hopes.","market":"US Equities (S&P 500)","direction":"up"},{"why":"Held near $4,200; softer inflation expectations dim its hedge appeal, but Middle East uncertainty keeps it supported.","market":"Gold (XAU/USD)","direction":"neutral"},{"why":"Long-run inflation expectations dropped from 3.9% to 3.4%, pushing yields lower and bond prices higher.","market":"US Treasuries","direction":"up"}],"analysis_en":{"headline":"US consumer mood bounces off its worst level in 50 years","learning":"The consumer reacts more to the gas pump than to headlines. To anticipate their mood and spending, watch energy prices first, not the day's news.","market_impact":"It mainly hits the dollar, US stocks, gold and Treasuries. Because the number beat expectations but inflation expectations fell, the dollar barely moved. Stocks took the positive read: a better mood plus lower expected inflation feed hopes for rate cuts. Bonds rose (yields fell) as long-run inflation expectations dropped sharply. Gold stayed near $4,200, propped up by Middle East tension.","what_it_means":"American consumer confidence rose for the first time in four months, helped by gasoline prices easing in early June. It came in at 48.9 versus 46.0 expected, up from a record low of 44.8. Even with the bounce, it's still the second-lowest reading since the 1970s: people remain worried about the high cost of living. The quiet good news is that they expect less inflation ahead (one-year down from 4.8% to 4.6%, long-run from 3.9% to 3.4%)."},"source_url":"https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/consumer-confidence","occurred_at":"2026-06-13T03:28:16.089+00:00","published_at":"2026-06-13T03:28:16.089+00:00","brief_url":"https://vectorialdata.com/economia/2026-06-12-us-us-confianza-del-consumidor-u-michigan-preliminar-junio/brief.md","page_url":"https://vectorialdata.com/economia/2026-06-12-us-us-confianza-del-consumidor-u-michigan-preliminar-junio"}]}