{"product":"Vectorial Economía","description":"One daily analysis of the single most relevant macro event — human-readable and machine-readable.","docs":"https://vectorialdata.com/economia","feeds":{"json_feed":"https://vectorialdata.com/economia/feed.json","rss":"https://vectorialdata.com/economia/feed.xml"},"disclaimer":"Vectorial Economía is descriptive educational information about macro data. Not investment advice.","count":2,"latest":{"date":"2026-06-17","slug":"2026-06-17-us-fomc-rate-decision-june-2026","event":"FOMC Rate Decision (June 2026)","country":"US","category":"central-bank","importance":"high","actual":"3.50%–3.75%","forecast":"3.50%–3.75% (hold)","previous":"3.50%–3.75%","unit":"% (target range)","surprise":"hotter","affected_markets":[{"why":"Higher-for-longer rates push bond yields upward as investors price out near-term cuts.","market":"US Treasuries (yields)","direction":"up"},{"why":"Hawkish Fed stance and revised dot plot strengthen the dollar relative to other currencies.","market":"US Dollar (DXY)","direction":"up"},{"why":"Rate-sensitive growth stocks and high-multiple equities are pressured when the Fed signals fewer cuts.","market":"S&P 500 / Growth Stocks","direction":"down"},{"why":"A stronger dollar and higher real yields reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold.","market":"Gold (XAU/USD)","direction":"down"},{"why":"Dollar strength and higher US rates increase debt-servicing costs and capital outflow pressure on EM assets.","market":"Emerging Market Currencies","direction":"down"}],"analysis_en":{"headline":"Fed Holds Rates at 3.50%–3.75% in Hawkish Pause; Warsh's First Meeting Revises Dot Plot Down","learning":"The dot plot is the Fed's forward guidance made visual: a chart showing where each FOMC member expects rates to be in the future. When that chart shifts toward fewer cuts, markets re-price bonds, equities, and currencies in real time. Understanding the dot plot alongside the rate decision itself is essential for any macro investor or trader—the surprise is rarely the hold, but the tone and projections around it.","market_impact":"Higher-for-longer rates push Treasury yields upward, strengthen the US dollar, and weigh on growth stocks and rate-sensitive sectors. Emerging markets with dollar-denominated debt face increased currency pressure. Commodities like gold may retreat as the dollar gains strength and real yields rise.","what_it_means":"The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% for the fourth consecutive meeting. With inflation still elevated at 4.2% YoY—a three-year high—and a resilient labor market, the FOMC voted 10-2 to hold. The updated dot plot now projects just one 25 bps rate cut for the remainder of 2026, a significantly more restrictive signal than markets had priced in. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh presided over his first policy meeting."},"source_url":"https://www.unboxfuture.com/2026/06/fed-june-2026-hawkish-pause-rates-held.html","occurred_at":"2026-06-17T05:00:47.151+00:00","published_at":"2026-06-17T05:00:47.151+00:00","brief_url":"https://vectorialdata.com/economia/2026-06-17-us-fomc-rate-decision-june-2026/brief.md","page_url":"https://vectorialdata.com/economia/2026-06-17-us-fomc-rate-decision-june-2026"},"events":[{"date":"2026-06-17","slug":"2026-06-17-us-fomc-rate-decision-june-2026","event":"FOMC Rate Decision (June 2026)","country":"US","category":"central-bank","importance":"high","actual":"3.50%–3.75%","forecast":"3.50%–3.75% (hold)","previous":"3.50%–3.75%","unit":"% (target range)","surprise":"hotter","affected_markets":[{"why":"Higher-for-longer rates push bond yields upward as investors price out near-term cuts.","market":"US Treasuries (yields)","direction":"up"},{"why":"Hawkish Fed stance and revised dot plot strengthen the dollar relative to other currencies.","market":"US Dollar (DXY)","direction":"up"},{"why":"Rate-sensitive growth stocks and high-multiple equities are pressured when the Fed signals fewer cuts.","market":"S&P 500 / Growth Stocks","direction":"down"},{"why":"A stronger dollar and higher real yields reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold.","market":"Gold (XAU/USD)","direction":"down"},{"why":"Dollar strength and higher US rates increase debt-servicing costs and capital outflow pressure on EM assets.","market":"Emerging Market Currencies","direction":"down"}],"analysis_en":{"headline":"Fed Holds Rates at 3.50%–3.75% in Hawkish Pause; Warsh's First Meeting Revises Dot Plot Down","learning":"The dot plot is the Fed's forward guidance made visual: a chart showing where each FOMC member expects rates to be in the future. When that chart shifts toward fewer cuts, markets re-price bonds, equities, and currencies in real time. Understanding the dot plot alongside the rate decision itself is essential for any macro investor or trader—the surprise is rarely the hold, but the tone and projections around it.","market_impact":"Higher-for-longer rates push Treasury yields upward, strengthen the US dollar, and weigh on growth stocks and rate-sensitive sectors. Emerging markets with dollar-denominated debt face increased currency pressure. Commodities like gold may retreat as the dollar gains strength and real yields rise.","what_it_means":"The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% for the fourth consecutive meeting. With inflation still elevated at 4.2% YoY—a three-year high—and a resilient labor market, the FOMC voted 10-2 to hold. The updated dot plot now projects just one 25 bps rate cut for the remainder of 2026, a significantly more restrictive signal than markets had priced in. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh presided over his first policy meeting."},"source_url":"https://www.unboxfuture.com/2026/06/fed-june-2026-hawkish-pause-rates-held.html","occurred_at":"2026-06-17T05:00:47.151+00:00","published_at":"2026-06-17T05:00:47.151+00:00","brief_url":"https://vectorialdata.com/economia/2026-06-17-us-fomc-rate-decision-june-2026/brief.md","page_url":"https://vectorialdata.com/economia/2026-06-17-us-fomc-rate-decision-june-2026"},{"date":"2026-06-12","slug":"2026-06-12-us-us-confianza-del-consumidor-u-michigan-preliminar-junio","event":"US Confianza del Consumidor U. Michigan (preliminar, junio)","country":"US","category":"consumer-sentiment","importance":"medium","actual":"48.9","forecast":"46.0","previous":"44.8","unit":"índice (puntos)","surprise":"hotter","affected_markets":[{"why":"Beat consensus (normally USD-bullish) but cooling inflation expectations offset it; the dollar barely moved on release.","market":"USD (Dollar Index)","direction":"neutral"},{"why":"Better consumer mood plus falling inflation expectations support risk appetite and rate-cut hopes.","market":"US Equities (S&P 500)","direction":"up"},{"why":"Held near $4,200; softer inflation expectations dim its hedge appeal, but Middle East uncertainty keeps it supported.","market":"Gold (XAU/USD)","direction":"neutral"},{"why":"Long-run inflation expectations dropped from 3.9% to 3.4%, pushing yields lower and bond prices higher.","market":"US Treasuries","direction":"up"}],"analysis_en":{"headline":"US consumer mood bounces off its worst level in 50 years","learning":"The consumer reacts more to the gas pump than to headlines. To anticipate their mood and spending, watch energy prices first, not the day's news.","market_impact":"It mainly hits the dollar, US stocks, gold and Treasuries. Because the number beat expectations but inflation expectations fell, the dollar barely moved. Stocks took the positive read: a better mood plus lower expected inflation feed hopes for rate cuts. Bonds rose (yields fell) as long-run inflation expectations dropped sharply. Gold stayed near $4,200, propped up by Middle East tension.","what_it_means":"American consumer confidence rose for the first time in four months, helped by gasoline prices easing in early June. It came in at 48.9 versus 46.0 expected, up from a record low of 44.8. Even with the bounce, it's still the second-lowest reading since the 1970s: people remain worried about the high cost of living. The quiet good news is that they expect less inflation ahead (one-year down from 4.8% to 4.6%, long-run from 3.9% to 3.4%)."},"source_url":"https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/consumer-confidence","occurred_at":"2026-06-13T03:28:16.089+00:00","published_at":"2026-06-13T03:28:16.089+00:00","brief_url":"https://vectorialdata.com/economia/2026-06-12-us-us-confianza-del-consumidor-u-michigan-preliminar-junio/brief.md","page_url":"https://vectorialdata.com/economia/2026-06-12-us-us-confianza-del-consumidor-u-michigan-preliminar-junio"}]}