{"date":"2026-07-31","slug":"2026-07-31-us-us-employment-cost-index-q2-2026","event":"US Employment Cost Index (Q2 2026)","country":"US","category":"employment","importance":"high","actual":"0.9% QoQ (SA); 3.4% YoY (NSA)","forecast":"0.8% QoQ","previous":"0.9% QoQ (Q1 2026); 3.4% YoY","unit":"% change","surprise":"hotter","affected_markets":[{"why":"Hotter wage growth lowers the odds of near-term Fed rate cuts, pushing yields higher.","market":"US Treasury yields","direction":"up"},{"why":"Reduced rate-cut expectations typically support the dollar.","market":"US Dollar","direction":"up"},{"why":"Sticky wage costs raise fears of persistent inflation and a longer stretch of high rates, pressuring risk assets.","market":"US equities","direction":"down"}],"analysis_en":{"headline":"US Employment Cost Index (Q2 2026): +0.9% quarterly, above the 0.8% forecast","learning":"The ECI is the Fed's preferred wage gauge because, unlike average hourly earnings, it isn't distorted by shifts in the mix of jobs (e.g., more high-paying jobs being added than low-paying ones). When it surprises to the upside, investors read it as a sign that wage-driven inflation may take longer to fade.","market_impact":"The release lands two days after the Fed held rates steady on July 29. A hotter-than-expected reading signals wage pressures aren't cooling, trimming the odds of a near-term rate cut. Expect upward pressure on Treasury yields and the dollar, with equities likely trading cautiously.","what_it_means":"The Employment Cost Index (ECI) tracks how much wages and benefits paid by employers are rising. In Q2 2026 it rose 0.9% quarter-over-quarter (matching Q1) and 3.4% year-over-year, coming in hotter than the 0.8% economists expected."},"source_url":"https://www.bls.gov/news.release/eci.nr0.htm","occurred_at":"2026-07-31T16:04:39.174+00:00","published_at":"2026-07-31T16:04:39.176+00:00","brief_url":"https://vectorialdata.com/economia/2026-07-31-us-us-employment-cost-index-q2-2026/brief.md","page_url":"https://vectorialdata.com/economia/2026-07-31-us-us-employment-cost-index-q2-2026","json_ld":{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"Dataset","name":"US Employment Cost Index (Q2 2026) — 2026-07-31","description":"US Employment Cost Index (Q2 2026): +0.9% quarterly, above the 0.8% forecast","creator":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Vectorial Data","url":"https://vectorialdata.com"},"license":"https://vectorialdata.com/terms","variableMeasured":"US Employment Cost Index (Q2 2026) (% change)","temporalCoverage":"2026-07-31","isAccessibleForFree":true,"distribution":[{"@type":"DataDownload","encodingFormat":"application/json","contentUrl":"https://vectorialdata.com/api/economic-events/2026-07-31-us-us-employment-cost-index-q2-2026"},{"@type":"DataDownload","encodingFormat":"text/markdown","contentUrl":"https://vectorialdata.com/economia/2026-07-31-us-us-employment-cost-index-q2-2026/brief.md"}]},"disclaimer":"Vectorial Economía is descriptive educational information about macro data. Not investment advice."}