# FOMC Rate Decision (June 2026) — 2026-06-17

> Fed holds rates at 3.50%–3.75%; dot plot flips to hike — 4th consecutive hold

## DATA
- Actual: 3.50%–3.75% % (tasa de fondos federales)
- Forecast: Hold (sin cambio) % (tasa de fondos federales)
- Previous: 3.50%–3.75% % (tasa de fondos federales)
- Surprise vs forecast: mixed

## WHAT IT MEANS
The Federal Reserve voted 12-0 to keep its benchmark rate unchanged for the fourth straight meeting, the first chaired by new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. The decision itself was fully expected; the shock came from the dot plot: the median 2026 rate projection jumped to 3.8% from 3.4% in March, with 9 of 18 officials now projecting at least one hike before year-end. The Fed also raised its 2026 PCE inflation forecast to 3.6% (up from 2.7%), citing elevated energy prices linked to the Middle East conflict.

## MARKET IMPACT
The hawkish dot plot pushed the US dollar higher and lifted Treasury yields across the curve. Equities fell under pressure from the 'higher for longer' repricing. Gold and risk assets weakened as real yields rose.

### Affected markets
- US Dollar (DXY) ↑ — El tono hawkish del dot plot impulsó la demanda de dólares al anticipar tasas más altas por más tiempo.
- US Treasury Yields ↑ — La revisión al alza del dot plot elevó las expectativas de tasas futuras, presionando los precios de bonos a la baja y los rendimientos al alza.
- S&P 500 ↓ — La perspectiva de tasas más restrictivas pesó sobre las valoraciones de renta variable.
- Gold (XAU/USD) ↓ — Un dólar más fuerte y rendimientos reales más altos redujeron el atractivo del oro como activo refugio.

## LEARNING
A rate hold doesn't always equal a dovish Fed. The dot plot — the grid of each policymaker's individual rate forecast — often moves markets more than the decision itself. When the median dot shifts up, it signals tighter future conditions and triggers an immediate repricing in bonds, equities, and currencies, even when today's rate stays the same.

## META
- Country: US
- Category: central-bank
- Importance: high
- Released at: 2026-06-20T16:05:09.048+00:00
- Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260617a.htm

## DISCLAIMER
Vectorial Economía is descriptive educational information about macro data. Not investment advice. Past market behavior does not guarantee future results.