# US CPI (June 2026) — 2026-07-14

> US CPI (June): annual inflation cools to 3.5%, well below the 3.8% forecast

## DATA
- Actual: 3.5% % YoY
- Forecast: 3.8% % YoY
- Previous: 4.2% % YoY
- Surprise vs forecast: cooler

## WHAT IT MEANS
The Consumer Price Index tracks how much prices rise for everyday goods and services. In June, prices were up just 3.5% from a year earlier — down from 4.2% in May — and fell 0.4% versus May, the biggest one-month drop since 2020. The decline was driven mainly by energy prices, which dropped 5.7% for the month after spiking earlier in the year due to the US-Iran conflict. Core inflation (excluding food and energy) was flat on the month and eased to 2.6% year-over-year.

## MARKET IMPACT
The cooler-than-expected report shifted Fed rate expectations: the odds of a July rate hike fell from 42% to just 17%, based on futures markets. Treasury yields dropped (the 10-year fell to 4.555%, the 2-year to 4.181%), which tends to lift stocks, weigh on the dollar, and support gold.

### Affected markets
- US Treasury Yields ↓ — 10-year fell to 4.555% and 2-year to 4.181% as cooler inflation reduced expected Fed rate hikes
- US Equities ↑ — Lower rate-hike odds ease pressure on risk assets
- US Dollar ↓ — Reduced odds of further Fed tightening weigh on the dollar's rate advantage
- Gold ↑ — Falling real yields typically support gold prices

## LEARNING
When inflation comes in below expectations, markets tend to react sharply because it reduces the odds that a central bank needs to keep raising interest rates. It pays to watch both the headline number and the 'core' figure (which strips out food and energy), since core better reflects the underlying trend — energy prices in particular can swing sharply due to one-off events like geopolitical conflicts.

## META
- Country: US
- Category: inflation
- Importance: high
- Released at: 2026-07-14T16:04:42.34+00:00
- Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_07142026.htm

## DISCLAIMER
Vectorial Economía is descriptive educational information about macro data. Not investment advice. Past market behavior does not guarantee future results.