# US Employment Cost Index (Q2 2026) — 2026-07-31

> US Employment Cost Index (Q2 2026): +0.9% quarterly, above the 0.8% forecast

## DATA
- Actual: 0.9% QoQ (SA); 3.4% YoY (NSA) % change
- Forecast: 0.8% QoQ % change
- Previous: 0.9% QoQ (Q1 2026); 3.4% YoY % change
- Surprise vs forecast: hotter

## WHAT IT MEANS
The Employment Cost Index (ECI) tracks how much wages and benefits paid by employers are rising. In Q2 2026 it rose 0.9% quarter-over-quarter (matching Q1) and 3.4% year-over-year, coming in hotter than the 0.8% economists expected.

## MARKET IMPACT
The release lands two days after the Fed held rates steady on July 29. A hotter-than-expected reading signals wage pressures aren't cooling, trimming the odds of a near-term rate cut. Expect upward pressure on Treasury yields and the dollar, with equities likely trading cautiously.

### Affected markets
- US Treasury yields ↑ — Hotter wage growth lowers the odds of near-term Fed rate cuts, pushing yields higher.
- US Dollar ↑ — Reduced rate-cut expectations typically support the dollar.
- US equities ↓ — Sticky wage costs raise fears of persistent inflation and a longer stretch of high rates, pressuring risk assets.

## LEARNING
The ECI is the Fed's preferred wage gauge because, unlike average hourly earnings, it isn't distorted by shifts in the mix of jobs (e.g., more high-paying jobs being added than low-paying ones). When it surprises to the upside, investors read it as a sign that wage-driven inflation may take longer to fade.

## META
- Country: US
- Category: employment
- Importance: high
- Released at: 2026-07-31T16:04:39.174+00:00
- Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/eci.nr0.htm

## DISCLAIMER
Vectorial Economía is descriptive educational information about macro data. Not investment advice. Past market behavior does not guarantee future results.