# Iowa corn yield model

> How many bushels per acre our satellite model projects, vs the USDA.

## OBSERVATION
(no observation yet) — observed at n/a.

## DELTA VS BASELINE
n/a vs (USDA WASDE state-level forecast).

## METHODOLOGY
- Source: Sentinel-2 NDVI + NASA SMAP + CHIRPS + USDA NASS CDL
- Cadence: Weekly during growing season (May–Oct)
- Sensors / APIs: Sentinel Hub Statistical API (NDVI), NASA Earthdata SMAP L3, CHIRPS daily 0.05°, USDA NASS CDL cropland mask
- AOI: Iowa state polygon, masked to corn pixels (USDA NASS CDL class 1)
- Baseline method: USDA WASDE state-level forecast

## UNCERTAINTY
Phase 1 reports state-level only; county disaggregation in Phase 2 (Phase 1 reports state-level only; county disaggregation in Phase 2)

## PROVENANCE
- Source URL: https://nassgeodata.gmu.edu/CropScape/
- License: NASA + USDA + ESA — public domain + Modified Copernicus Licence (mixed)


## TRANSLATION (Casual EN)
Iowa grows ~17% of US corn. Our model combines *NDVI* — crop greenness seen from satellite — with soil moisture (SMAP) and rainfall (CHIRPS). We compare against the official *USDA WASDE* report. When our number diverges by more than 3 bu/ac, expect a surprise on CME corn futures (ZC).

## DISCLAIMER
Vectorial Signals is descriptive market intelligence. Not investment advice. Past correlations don't predict future performance.