Actas de la FOMC (reunión del 16-17 de junio)
Fed minutes: rates held at 3.50%-3.75%, but committee splits 9-9 on another 2026 hike
Actual
Tasa mantenida en 3.50%-3.75%; comité dividido 9 de 19 miembros a favor de al menos una subida más en 2026
Forecast
Se esperaba un tono más neutral; el mercado no anticipaba que se retirara la señal de recorte
Previous
3.50%-3.75% (sin cambios); en marzo el "dot plot" contemplaba un recorte en 2026
What it means
Minutes from the June 16-17 meeting, released today at 2pm ET, show the Fed unanimously held its benchmark rate at 3.50%-3.75% but stripped out language that had hinted at upcoming cuts. Of 19 officials, 9 now see at least one more hike needed this year (versus 8 seeing no change and just 1 seeing a cut), and 2026 inflation projections were raised to 3.6% headline and 3.3% core. Chair Kevin Warsh withheld his own dot, leaving the minutes as the only official read on a possible September hike.
What it moves
September hike odds rose to roughly 50-58% (per CME FedWatch), after having fallen to around 66%... then lower on June's soft jobs report. The hawkish tone pressured the Nasdaq (-1.16%) and pushed Treasury yields higher, while Brent crude topped $76 on the Iran crisis, reinforcing fears of stickier inflation.
Affected markets
- Nasdaq / acciones tecnológicas ↓ — El tono más duro de la Fed y el repunte del petróleo presionaron a las tecnológicas (Nasdaq -1.16%)
- Rendimientos del Tesoro de EE.UU. ↑ — Menos probabilidad de recortes cercanos empuja al alza los rendimientos
- Dólar (DXY) ↑ — Expectativas de tasas más altas por más tiempo favorecen al dólar
- Petróleo (Brent/WTI) ↑ — Tensión con Irán se suma al riesgo inflacionario que preocupa a la Fed
- Oro ↑ — Cobertura ante mayor inflación esperada pese a tasas más altas
🎓 Today's takeaway
Fed minutes are released three weeks after each meeting and can move markets even though the rate decision is already known, because they reveal how divided the committee is and where projections are heading (the 'dot plot'). What matters to investors isn't today's rate but where the committee's consensus is trending — a 9-9 split like this one signals more volatility at upcoming meetings.
Vectorial Economía is descriptive educational information about macro data. Not investment advice. Past market behavior does not guarantee future results.