US International Trade Balance (Goods & Services) – May 2026

What it means

The trade balance measures the gap between what a country exports and imports. In May, the US exported $317.7B and imported $395.3B, leaving a $77.6B deficit versus a revised $54.6B in April. The jump was driven mainly by record imports of capital goods (machinery and equipment), while exports fell $10.5B. The figure came in almost exactly in line with the market consensus of -$78.5B.

What it moves

Because the actual number nearly matched consensus, the immediate reaction in the dollar and equities was muted. Still, the sharp month-on-month widening matters because net exports subtract from GDP: a bigger Q2 trade gap could trim US growth estimates and support demand for Treasuries as a safe haven. Markets are also watching whether the import surge reflects companies front-running potential new tariffs.

Affected markets

• US Dollar (DXY) → — Result landed almost exactly on the Reuters consensus, so FX reaction was muted despite the sharp month-on-month jump.
• US Treasury yields ↓ — A wider deficit driven by import front-running reinforces expectations that net trade will subtract from Q2 GDP, supporting safe-haven demand for bonds.
• US equities (industrials/manufacturing) → — Record capital-goods imports signal firms are still investing/stockpiling equipment, seen as a sign of resilient business demand even as it widens the deficit.
• Emerging-market exporters (MXN, CNY, CAD) ↑ — A rebound in US imports supports demand for goods from major trading partners.