US CPI (September)
US CPI rises to 3.7% YoY in September, above the 3.6% expected
Actual
3.7%
Forecast
3.6%
Previous
3.4%
What it means
CPI tracks how much the prices consumers pay are changing. In September prices were up 3.7% from a year ago (3.4% in August) and 0.6% on the month. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, was 2.6% YoY and 0.3% MoM.
What it moves
A slightly hotter-than-expected print lowers bets on Fed rate cuts. That tends to lift bond yields and the dollar, and can pressure stocks, especially growth names.
Affected markets
- US Treasuries ↓ — Higher inflation reduces expectations of rate cuts, pushing yields up and bond prices down
- US Dollar ↑ — Higher-for-longer rates support the dollar
- Equities ↓ — Higher yields weigh on valuations, especially growth stocks
🎓 Today's takeaway
Look at core inflation as well as the headline: the headline can jump on energy or food, while core shows the underlying trend. Also remember markets react more to the surprise versus consensus than to the number itself.
Vectorial Economía is descriptive educational information about macro data. Not investment advice. Past market behavior does not guarantee future results.