IMF: global economy will grow 3.1% in 2026, less than in 2025

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) published its economic outlook report today during its annual meetings in Bangkok. It raised its global growth forecast for 2026 to 3.1% (up from 3.0% in July), but this figure is lower than the 3.5% growth of the global economy in 2025. For 2027, it expects 3.4%. Regarding inflation, the IMF estimates that prices will rise on average 4.7% worldwide during 2026, and 4.1% in 2027. Translated to daily life: something that costs $100 today would cost on average about $105 by the end of this year globally (this varies greatly from country to country). The most striking data from the report: growth is concentrating in very few countries. According to the IMF, only 32 countries account for 95% of all global economic growth this year, down from 54 countries in April that explained that same portion. In other words, the benefits of growth are becoming increasingly unequal: a small group of economies, largely driven by investment in artificial intelligence, is pulling the global average up while many others are left behind. By region, here are the numbers provided by the IMF for 2026: • United States: 2.3% (same in 2027) • China: 4.5% (down from 5% in 2025) • India: 7% (down from 7.7%, but still the fastest-growing large economy) • Eurozone: just 1.1% (rising to 1.2% in 2027) — still the lagging region • Advanced economies combined: 2.1% • Emerging and developing economies: 3.7% (down from 4.5%) The IMF also revealed a key assumption behind its numbers: it assumes that oil prices will rise nearly 41% in 2026, to an average of $96 per barrel, and that oil and gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz — affected by recent attacks in the region — will normalize by March 2027. If this does not happen and oil remains more expensive or transit through Hormuz continues to be disrupted, actual growth could end up below what the organization projects today. Who feels it first? Countries that depend on exporting oil if the assumption about Hormuz does not hold; manufacturing and technology companies linked to artificial intelligence, where growth is concentrating; and governments and central banks, which use these types of projections to decide interest rates and budgets. For the general public, the central message is that the global economy continues to grow, but fewer countries — and especially fewer people within each country — feel that growth in their pockets.