Brazil lowers its 2026 forecast again: now it will grow 1.8%
WHAT HAPPENED
The Central Bank of Brazil cut its growth forecast for 2026 for the third time: from 2% to 1.8%. It also reduced its family consumption forecast from 2.1% to 1.2%. For 2027, it expects only 1.4%.
WHY IT MATTERS
The economy grew 0.5% between April and June, compared to 1.1% in the previous quarter, and the subsequent data points to more cooling. Stores, cars, furniture, and appliances feel it first when families delay purchases.
AND FOR YOUR PORTFOLIO
For long-term investments, the data separates two stories: businesses that depend on Brazilian consumption face a slower environment; large exporters are less exposed. The Selic rate of 13.75% could decrease further and make credit cheaper.
💬 TELL IT LIKE THIS
“Brazil is not in crisis: it is growing increasingly slowly, and the first place this is noticeable is in family purchases.”