TUR — iShares MSCI Turkey ETF
$38.62
Target: $ (%)
P/E Ratio
18.9
P/E Forward
—
Dividend
1.8%
Market Cap
$0.19B
EPS
—
Consensus
Hold
What they do
iShares MSCI Turkey ETF (NasdaqGM: TUR) is a BlackRock fund that tracks the MSCI Turkey IMI index — covering large + mid + small cap Turkish stocks listed on Borsa Istanbul (BIST).
ETF metadata:
- Issuer: BlackRock iShares
- Expense ratio (the annual fee the fund charges): 0.59%
- AUM (total money invested in the fund): ~$190M (May 2026)
- Inception: March 26, 2008
- Holdings: 86 Turkish stocks
- Listing: NasdaqGM, ticker TUR
- Currency exposure: TRY (Turkish lira) — no hedge (direct currency risk)
- Portfolio turnover: 15%
- Distributions: semi-annual
Top 10 holdings (May 2026):
- Tüpraş (Türkiye Petrol Rafinerileri, oil refining) — 7.32%
- BIM (Birleşik Mağazalar, discount retail, the 'Turkish Aldi') — 6.13%
- Türk Hava Yolları (Turkish Airlines, THYAO) — 6.09%
- Koç Holding (Turkey's #1 conglomerate) — 5.14%
- Akbank (#1 private bank) — 4.71%
- İş Bankası (Türkiye İş Bankası, bank) — 4.24%
- Şişe Cam (industrial glass) — 3.69%
- Turkcell (#1 telecom) — 3.61%
- Ford Otomotiv (Ford-Koç JV, autos)
- Sabancı Holding (#2 conglomerate)
Sector breakdown: Financials ~22% (largest sleeve), Industrials (Turkish Airlines + Koç), Consumer Staples (BIM), Energy/Materials (Tüpraş, Şişe), Communications (Turkcell).
The one thing TUR gives you that other products don't: concentrated exposure to an emerging economy (the world's 16th largest by GDP) that trades cheap, with upside from a re-rating if orthodox monetary policy keeps bringing inflation down.
Why we like it
TUR at $38.62 is a concentrated, cheap bet on Turkish disinflation + emerging-market stocks reverting to the mean. Specific reasons:
- A re-rating is underway: the BIST 100 trades at ~19x price vs. profit (May 2026) — still a discount vs. emerging-market peers Brazil/India/Mexico at 13-20x, and much cheaper than the S&P 500 at ~26x.
- Disinflation is still the base case: Moody's projects CPI of ~20% by end of 2026 (vs. 32.4% in April 2026); if it happens, the CBRT (Turkey's Central Bank) can resume rate cuts from the current 37% — and financials, which make up 22% of TUR, gain from a valuation re-rating.
- A live Moody's upgrade path: it upgraded Turkey to Ba3 in July 2025 with a stable outlook — 3 notches below investment grade. Fitch and S&P could follow if policy orthodoxy holds. An upgrade = institutional capital inflows + lower borrowing costs.
- Foreigners coming back: >$2,500M of stock-market inflows YTD 2026 (vs. $6.7B for full-year 2024). The flows are asymmetric — foreign positioning is low, so any macro improvement accelerates the money coming in.
- TUR YTD 2026 ~+15.9% total return (as of May 22) — the thesis is already working; this is not a cold contrarian take.
- Demographics + manufacturing base + nearshoring: Turkey is production at Europe's doorstep, benefiting from China-EU friend-shoring.
- Portfolio diversification: for someone whose portfolio is dominated by US/global blue chips, TUR adds a concentrated emerging market that doesn't move in lockstep with the S&P.
- Asymmetric upside: if the lira stops losing value and the BIST re-rates to 22x price vs. profit (vs. 19x today), TUR could do +30-40% in dollars in 12 months. The downside is capped by where the lira already trades (all the bad news about Erdogan + inflation is already reflected in the price).
Key Risk
Important risks — TUR is a concentrated emerging-country ETF:
- Policy reversal — the #1 risk: Erdogan has already fired 4 hawkish CBRT governors in recent years (Erkan, Ağbal, Çetinkaya and another). If he demands aggressive rate cuts too early (to boost the economy before elections or under political pressure), policy orthodoxy collapses and TUR can drop -30% fast. On May 21, 2026, an Ankara appeals court ruling annulled the leadership of the CHP (the opposition party) — the BIST 100 fell >6% in one session, triggering a circuit breaker. The politics are very much alive.
- A lira blow-up — TUR is UNHEDGED: USD/TRY hit a record 45.90 on May 27, 2026 (lira -17.7% YoY). If the lira loses another 15-20% (as has happened several times in 2018-2023), TUR loses value in dollars even if the BIST rises. Currency devaluation is the silent #1 risk.
- Inflation re-accelerated: April 2026 CPI = 32.37% (vs. 30.87% in March); the CBRT raised its 2026 target from 16% to 24%. The disinflation narrative is wobbling.
- Geopolitics: a Middle East energy shock, NATO-Russia friction, Syria, the internal conflict with the Kurds. Turkey sits in a seismic region.
- Small AUM ($190M) = limited liquidity in TUR, a wider gap between buying and selling prices than large ETFs (EWZ $1B+, EWY $2B+).
- Concentration: the top 10 is ~50% of the fund. If Tüpraş or Akbank has a company-specific problem, TUR gets hit hard.
- Variable distributions: TUR pays semi-annually but the amount fluctuates with Turkish dividends and currency moves — it is not predictable income.
This is educational and informational content, not financial advice. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Vectorial Data picked TUR on 2026-05-27 at $38.62.
Full Research
iShares MSCI Turkey ETF (TUR) — Research Completo
Precio: $38.62 | Expense Ratio: 0.59% | AUM: ~$190M | Holdings: 86 | Distribución: semi-anual
¿Qué es TUR?
ETF de BlackRock iShares que replica el índice MSCI Turkey IMI — cobertura large + mid + small cap de la bolsa de Estambul (BIST). Cotiza en NasdaqGM en USD pero invierte 100% en acciones turcas en lira sin hedge cambiario.
Inception: 26 marzo 2008.
Top 10 Holdings (mayo 2026)
| # | Ticker | Empresa | Peso |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TUPRS | Tüpraş (refinería) | 7.32% |
| 2 | BIMAS | BIM (retail descuento) | 6.13% |
| 3 | THYAO | Turkish Airlines | 6.09% |
| 4 | KCHOL | Koç Holding | 5.14% |
| 5 | AKBNK | Akbank | 4.71% |
| 6 | ISCTR | İş Bankası | 4.24% |
| 7 | SISE | Şişe Cam (vidrio) | 3.69% |
| 8 | TCELL | Turkcell (telecom) | 3.61% |
| 9 | FROTO | Ford Otomotiv | n/a |
| 10 | SAHOL | Sabancı Holding | n/a |
Sector Breakdown
- Financials: ~22% (mayor)
- Industriales (Turkish Airlines, Koç)
- Consumer Staples (BIM)
- Energy/Materials (Tüpraş, Şişe)
- Communications (Turkcell)
Turquía Macro (mayo 2026)
| Métrica | Valor |
|---|---|
| CPI YoY abril 2026 | 32.37% (vs 30.87% marzo — re-acelerando) |
| Policy rate (CBRT) | 37% (overnight lending 40%, borrowing 35.5%) |
| CBRT Governor | Fatih Karahan (desde feb 2024) |
| Finance Minister | Mehmet Şimşek |
| Inflation target 2026 | 24% (subido de 16% el 14 mayo) |
| USD/TRY 2026-05-27 | 45.90 (récord, lira -17.7% YoY) |
| BIST 100 P/E | 18.9x (abril 2026) |
| BIST 100 YoY (TRY) | +47.6% |
| Foreign inflows YTD | >$2,500M |
Recent Performance
- TUR YTD 2026: +15.9% (a 22 mayo)
- BIST 100 +47.6% en lira (re-rating de un mínimo deprimido)
- TUR 52-week range: $29.64 – $43.98
Tesis (por qué Turquía ahora)
- Disinflación es base case — Moody's proyecta CPI ~20% fin 2026; si cumple, rate cuts → multiple expansion financials
- Cheap valuations relativas: BIST P/E ~19x todavía bajo vs EM peers
- Moody's upgrade path (Ba3 → BB- → BB → BB+ → investment grade)
- Foreign flows regresando ($2.5B YTD)
- Demographics + nearshoring desde China a Europa
Top 3 Risks
- Policy reversal Erdogan — ya despidió 4 governors hawkish. CHP court ruling 21 mayo 2026 → BIST -6% día
- Lira blow-up — USD/TRY 45.90 récord, ETF UNHEDGED
- Geopolítica — Middle East, NATO, kurdos
Anchor Fact
Turquía es la economía #16 del mundo, pero su moneda se devaluó 17.7% contra el dólar el último año. Aun así, su bolsa subió 47.6% en lira y casi 16% en dólares en lo que va de 2026, porque los extranjeros ya metieron $2,500 millones de regreso al país.
TUR vs Otros EM ETFs
| ETF | País | ER | AUM |
|---|---|---|---|
| TUR | Turquía | 0.59% | $190M |
| EWZ | Brasil | 0.59% | ~$5B |
| EWY | Korea | 0.59% | $2B |
| EWC | Canadá | 0.49% | $3B |
TUR es chico → liquidez limitada vs EWZ/EWY.
Tesis en una línea
Apuesta concentrada por disinflación turca + re-rating de bolsa cheap (P/E 19x) + foreign flows ($2.5B YTD regresando) + Moody's upgrade path — con riesgo TRY unhedged y political risk vivo (CHP court ruling mayo 2026 mostró fragilidad institucional).
Research fecha: 27 May 2026 | Próxima revisión: Nov 2026
Esto no es asesoría financiera.
This is not financial advice. Consult a certified financial advisor.
The author may hold positions in the securities discussed.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.