PIB de EE.UU. (Estimación Avanzada), 2T 2026

What it means

GDP (Gross Domestic Product) measures the total value of everything an economy produces in a period. This first ('advance') estimate for Q2 2026 shows the US economy slowed sharply: it grew at a 1.5% annualized rate, versus the 2.1% economists expected and down from 2.1% growth in the prior quarter. Consumer spending, investment and exports drove the increase, but a decline in government spending held it back. The release comes just one day after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady, citing inflation (measured by PCE) still elevated at 3.3% core year-over-year.

What it moves

Weaker-than-expected GDP typically pushes Treasury yields and the dollar lower, since it reduces expectations for future growth. But because core inflation remains at 3.3% -well above the Fed's 2% target- markets can't simply assume this speeds up rate cuts: slowing growth paired with sticky inflation is the toughest combination for central banks to manage. Expect volatility in equities, dollar softness, and demand for havens like gold.

Affected markets

• US Treasury yields ↓ — Weaker growth raises expectations of a slower economy and more accommodative Fed path
• US Dollar (DXY) ↓ — Slower growth reduces the yield/growth premium supporting the dollar
• US equities → — Growth miss is offset by hopes it pressures the Fed toward eventual rate cuts, but core inflation staying at 3.3% limits the relief
• Gold ↑ — Weaker growth and potential lower real yields typically support gold as a haven and inflation hedge