US Nonfarm Payrolls (July 2026)
US sheds 23,000 jobs in July, a sharp miss versus the +83,000 expected
Actual
-23K
Forecast
+83K
Previous
+57K
What it means
The US Nonfarm Payrolls report showed the economy lost 23,000 jobs in July 2026, far below the roughly +83,000 economists had forecast. May and June figures were also revised down by a combined 103,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate ticked down slightly to 4.1% from 4.2%, even though it was expected to hold steady.
What it moves
The weak report shifted market bets toward the Federal Reserve holding or cutting interest rates rather than raising them. Treasury yields fell, the US dollar weakened against major currencies, and stock futures rose on hopes for looser monetary policy ahead.
Affected markets
- US Treasury yields ↓ — Weak jobs data raised bets the Fed will hold or cut rates rather than hike
- US Dollar Index (DXY) ↓ — Lower rate expectations reduce the dollar's yield advantage
- US equities (S&P 500 futures) ↑ — Investors welcomed prospects of looser Fed policy
- Gold ↑ — Falling real yields and a weaker dollar boost non-yielding gold
🎓 Today's takeaway
One jobs report rarely changes the economy's direction, but it can quickly change what investors expect the central bank to do next — and that expectation is what actually moves bond, currency and stock prices in the short run. Always check the revisions to prior months alongside the headline number; they often reveal more about the real trend than the latest print alone.
Vectorial Economía is descriptive educational information about macro data. Not investment advice. Past market behavior does not guarantee future results.