GSK — GSK plc

GSK at $50.33 means buying one of the world's top 10 pharma companies at a forward P/E of 9.1x — the cheapest multiple in global Big Pharma — right as

• it has 14 blockbuster medicines slated for launch between 2025-2031,
• it just closed 2 key M&A deals in 2026,
• Blenrep returned to the US market in October 2025, and
• new CEO Luke Miels took over on January 1, 2026 with an execution mandate. Specific reasons:
• Q1 2026 delivered +5% CER in sales with specialty medicines +15%: revenue £7.6B, core op profit +10% CER, core EPS +9% CER. Beat quality is excellent — specialty (injectable HIV Cabenuva +9%, Jemperli oncology) offsetting soft vaccines (Arexvy -10% due to CDC narrow eligibility). Reaffirmed FY26 guidance + launched £2B buyback completing in 2026.
• Shingrix anchor — >90M doses distributed in the US since 2017: the #1 global shingles (herpes zoster) vaccine. CDC recommends for adults 50+. Estimate: only ~45% of eligible adults vaccinated → ~70 million adults 50+ still UNVACCINATED in the US = an 8-12 year growth runway. FY2025 Shingrix revenue £3.6B (~$4.5B). This is the thesis anchor: a giant recurring-revenue product with visible runway.
• Forward P/E 9.1x = deep discount vs. Big Pharma: peers Pfizer 9.8x, Roche 13x, Sanofi 11x, Novartis 14x, Merck 11x, AZN 16x. GSK trades at a ~25-40% discount to peers despite having: a 4.13% dividend, £2B buyback, 14-blockbuster pipeline, and 2 M&A deals closed in 2026. Re-rating to 11x forward P/E = $61 = +21% capital gain + 4% yield = ~25% total return.
• Luke Miels new CEO since January 1, 2026: comes from Macquarie + prior roles at AstraZeneca/Roche/GSK Brand. His mandate: execute the multi-year plan to grow from £31B revenue (2025) to £40B in 2031 (+29% in 6 years). Activist investor (Bluebell) already pushing for capital returns + execution focus — Miels is the operator.
• 2 M&A deals in 2026: 35Pharma $950M (closed, pulmonary hypertension asset) + Siran Biotech up to $1B (siRNA hepatitis B platform). Both are smart tuck-ins in growing therapeutic areas — siRNA is the technology behind Alnylam's and Ionis's success.
• Blenrep returned to the US market in October 2025: GSK withdrew Blenrep (multiple myeloma) in 2022 after a trial failure. It reformulated it + ran new DREAMM-7 + DREAMM-8 trials (data 2025) + received FDA re-approval in October 2025. A potential $2-3B peak blockbuster in five years — pure upside vs. conservative consensus.
• Growing dividend: 17p in Q1 2026, FY2026 expected 70p, yield ~4.13% USD: pays a consistent quarterly dividend. Plus £2B buyback completing in 2026 = ~$2.5B = ~3% of market cap retired. Total shareholder return (yield + buyback) = ~7% before any capital gain.
• Cabenuva injectable HIV is revolutionary: the first time in history HIV patients do NOT need a daily pill — an injection every 1 or 2 months. Q1 2026 +9%. Initial adoption concentrated in the US/Europe, expansion into Asia/LatAm underway. Cabenuva FY2025 £1.3B with a $3-5B peak runway.
• Zantac (ranitidine) litigation settled — overhang removed: GSK paid ~$2.2B in settlements in 2024-2025 to resolve the mass Zantac-vs.-cancer litigation. Already absorbed on the balance sheet, no further surprises. (10) Solid anchor: ~70M adults 50+ unvaccinated for Shingrix in the US + 14 blockbusters pipeline 2025-2031 + £40B revenue target = 6-year growth visibility at the cheapest multiple in Big Pharma.