BKNG — Booking Holdings Inc.
$4204.22
Target: $5874.00 (+43.5%)
P/E Ratio
25.5
P/E Forward
15.5
Dividend
1.02%
Market Cap
$144.5B
EPS
$160.5
Consensus
Buy
What they do
Booking Holdings is the global leader in online travel, connecting travelers with accommodations, transportation, dining, and experiences in over 220 countries. It operates five brands: Booking.com (the world's largest accommodation platform), Priceline (travel deals in North America), Agoda (Asia-Pacific), KAYAK (price search engine), and OpenTable (restaurant reservations). In 2025, they processed $186.1B in gross bookings and 285 million hotel nights in just Q4.
They earn money from booking commissions, their payment platform, and advertising on their price comparison services. They've heavily invested in 'Connected Trip'—an AI-driven ecosystem aiming to manage every aspect of travel on a single platform. The Genius loyalty program boosts direct bookings, reducing reliance on paid marketing.
Headquartered in Norwalk, Connecticut, they operate globally. Their largest brand, Booking.com, is based in Amsterdam and dominates Europe. Agoda leads in Southeast Asia, and Priceline serves the discount segment in North America. A 25:1 stock split will take effect on April 2, 2026.
Why we like it
Attractive combination of dividend and value growth. Trades at a price vs. profit forward of ~15.5x, below the S&P 500 and Airbnb, despite over 15% growth in revenue and earnings per share. 36 analysts have a Buy consensus with a target of ~$5,874 (43% upside). Newly initiated dividend ($42/share, ~1% yield) with a conservative payout ratio of 23%—plenty of room to grow.
Strong structural tailwinds: travel spending continues to move online, and Booking is the leader with unmatched scale and network effects. The AI-driven Connected Trip strategy captures more spending per traveler. $17.8B in cash for buybacks, dividends, and acquisitions. 2025 revenue of $26.9B (+13.4%), operating cash flow +107% in Q4. Asset-light with high margins—an excellent compounder.
Key Risk
EU regulation and AI disruption are the most significant threats. The Digital Markets Act designated Booking.com as a 'gatekeeper,' which could force the removal of price parity clauses—allowing hotels to offer lower rates directly. Proposed $530M fine from Spanish authorities for anti-competitive behavior.
Google's 'native booking' feature in AI search (expected in 2026) could bypass OTAs. Macroeconomic risk: Oxford Economics projects 2026 as the weakest global growth since 2009.
This is educational and informational content, not financial advice. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Vectorial Data picked BKNG on 2026-03-31 at $4204.22.
Full Research
Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) — Research Completo
Precio: $4,204.22 | P/E Forward: 15.5 | Div Yield: 1.02% | Market Cap: $130.5B
¿Qué es Booking Holdings?
Booking Holdings es la plataforma de viajes en línea más grande del mundo. Opera cinco marcas principales:
- Booking.com — La plataforma de alojamiento online más grande del mundo (Amsterdam)
- Priceline — Ofertas de viaje en Norteamérica
- Agoda — Plataforma enfocada en Asia-Pacífico
- KAYAK — Buscador y comparador de precios de viaje
- OpenTable — Reservas de restaurantes
Números Clave 2025
| Métrica | Valor |
|---|---|
| Revenue | $26.9B (+13.4% YoY) |
| Gross Bookings | $186.1B (+12% YoY) |
| Room Nights Q4 | 285 millones |
| Empleados | ~24,000 |
| Países | 220+ |
Estrategia Connected Trip
Booking está construyendo un ecosistema impulsado por IA que maneja CADA aspecto del viaje: vuelos + hoteles + autos + atracciones + restaurantes, todo en una plataforma. El programa Genius impulsa reservas directas, mejorando márgenes.
Stock Split 25:1
Efectivo 2 de abril de 2026. Precio pasará de ~$4,200 a ~$168 por acción, haciéndolo más accesible a inversionistas retail. El dividendo se ajusta proporcionalmente a ~$0.42/acción trimestral.
Dividendo
- Dividendo anual: $42.00/acción
- Yield: 1.02%
- Payout ratio: 23.1%
- Dividendo recién iniciado con MUCHO espacio para crecer
Análisis de Analistas
| Métrica | Valor |
|---|---|
| Consenso | Buy |
| Analistas Buy | 30 |
| Analistas Hold | 6 |
| Analistas Sell | 0 |
| Target Promedio | $5,874 |
| Upside | +43.5% |
Riesgos Principales
- Digital Markets Act (UE) — Booking.com designada como "gatekeeper", posibles restricciones a cláusulas de paridad de precios
- Multa española de $530M — Por conducta anticompetitiva
- Google AI booking nativo — Podría desintermediar OTAs en el futuro
- Macro débil 2026 — Oxford Economics proyecta el crecimiento global más débil desde 2009
- Deuda significativa — Podría limitar flexibilidad en downturn
Conclusión
BKNG a $4,204 es el líder indiscutible del travel online a P/E forward de 15.5x — barato para un compounder de 15%+. Dividendo recién iniciado con payout de solo 23%, $17.8B en efectivo, y 43% de upside según analistas. El split 25:1 del 2 de abril abre la puerta a más inversores retail. La estrategia Connected Trip con IA posiciona a Booking para capturar más del gasto total por viajero.
Research fecha: 31 Mar 2026 | Próxima revisión: Sep 2026
Esto no es asesoría financiera.
This is not financial advice. Consult a certified financial advisor.
The author may hold positions in the securities discussed.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.