IDCC — InterDigital, Inc.
$269.50
Target: $462.67 (+71.7%)
P/E Ratio
25.7
P/E Forward
37.7
Dividend
1.04%
Market Cap
$7B
EPS
$10.49
Consensus
Strong Buy
What they do
InterDigital (Nasdaq: IDCC) is a research and patent-licensing company. Its model is easy to explain and rare to find: it invents fundamental technology — wireless communications (3G, 4G, 5G, Wi-Fi and the coming 6G) and video compression (the HEVC, VVC and AV1 codecs that make a video smaller without losing quality) — patents it, and then charges a royalty to the companies that actually make the devices using that technology. It produces nothing physical: its only product is ideas.
How it makes money (two revenue types):
- Recurring revenue — fixed, periodic fees from already-signed license contracts. This is the stable, predictable part. The company tracks it as annualized recurring revenue (ARR): it closed 2025 at $582 million (+24%), with a record $492 million from smartphones alone.
- 'Catch-up' revenue — one-time payments it collects when it signs a manufacturer that had been using its technology for years without a license (often after litigation or arbitration). It's real money, but it arrives in lumps and doesn't repeat: that's why InterDigital's profit jumps a lot from one quarter to the next. In Q1 2026 it was $64 million of the $205 million total.
Who pays it: essentially everyone who makes connected devices. Its licensees and recent deals include Apple, Samsung, Google, LG, Xiaomi, vivo, Honor, HP, Lenovo, Sony and the big TV makers. In January 2026 it renewed with Xiaomi (5 years) and signed a new license with LG for TVs and monitors.
The portfolio: around 30,000 patents issued and pending, many of them standard-essential (SEPs): meaning they're impossible to design around if you want to comply with the 5G or Wi-Fi standard. The company says it adds several new patents a day on average.
The team: just ~460 employees, more than half engineers and most of them inventors. A deliberately small, R&D-intensive company. CEO: Liren Chen (since 2021, previously an intellectual-property executive at Qualcomm). Headquarters in Wilmington, Delaware. Founded in 1972.
2025-2026 context: 2025 closed with revenue of $834 million (its second-best year ever; 2024 was a record at $869 million), record adjusted EBITDA of $589 million, net income of $407 million and record non-GAAP EPS of $15.31. In July 2025 it won a Samsung arbitration worth $1.05 billion for an eight-year license (through 2030). Q1 2026 (reported April 30) beat guidance with $205 million in revenue and EPS of $2.14 (down from $3.45 a year earlier, on higher revenue-share and litigation costs). 2026 guidance is $675-$775 million in revenue — deliberately below 2025, because fewer one-time catch-up payments land this year.
Dividend: $0.70 per share per quarter ($2.80 a year) = ~1% at today's price. It has paid it for 16 straight years and raised it 3 years in a row; it also buys back shares aggressively and cut debt. Next report: late July 2026.
Why we like it
IDCC at $269.50 is buying the invisible toll of connectivity: you're not betting on which phone or TV brand wins — nearly all of them use technology invented by InterDigital and pay for it. Specific reasons:
- Patents impossible to design around: much of its ~30,000-patent portfolio is standard-essential (SEPs) — if a manufacturer wants its device to speak 5G or Wi-Fi, it has to use those ideas, with no way around them. That gives a collecting power few businesses have.
- Out-of-this-world margins: because it manufactures nothing, almost everything it charges turns into cash flow — 2025 adjusted EBITDA was $589 million on $834 million of revenue (~70% margin). Charging for ideas is the best business there is.
- Growing visibility of recurring revenue: annualized recurring revenue rose to $582 million (+24%) with a smartphone record, and in 2025-2026 it signed or renewed with Xiaomi, LG, vivo, Honor and HP — each contract is money contracted for years.
- Track record of returning capital: 16 years paying a dividend (raised 3 years in a row), aggressive buybacks and debt reduction — a company that hands back what it earns.
- Analysts see a lot of room: 'Strong Buy' consensus with an average target of ~$463 (~+72% from $269.50). Important honesty: only 4 analysts cover it (thin market opinion) and the stock sits ~35% below its 52-week high — the recent drop is part of why the theoretical upside looks so large.
Key Risk
Risks:
- Lumpy revenue — the #1: the heart of the risk is that its profit jumps. Part of the money is one-time 'catch-up' payments that don't repeat, and its revenue depends on renewing expiring contracts and signing new ones. The company itself projects billing less in 2026 ($675-$775 million) than in 2025 ($834 million) precisely because fewer of those one-time payments land this year — so a good year can be followed by a weak one.
- Its business IS litigation: InterDigital collects, to a large extent, by fighting. Today it has open cases against Amazon (video codecs and streaming, in US and UK courts) and Disney (it won injunctions in Brazil and Germany in 2025). An adverse ruling, or a low 'FRAND' royalty rate set by a court, can directly cut what it charges — and the cost of these fights already rose and compressed Q1 profit.
- Concentration in few licensees: a handful of smartphone and TV giants concentrate the revenue; in 2025, 5 agreements expired without being renewed (including a Samsung TV license that contributed $31.7 million a year). Losing or delaying a big renewal moves the whole year.
- Patents expire: a patent lives ~20 years and then anyone can use the idea for free. InterDigital has to keep inventing to replace the SEPs that expire — if its R&D loses relevance to 6G or new codecs, the engine winds down over the years.
- Valuation after years of gains: although it's ~35% below its high today, the stock multiplied several times since 2023; it trades at ~26x trailing earnings and, on the GAAP 2026 guide (which declines), the forward multiple rises to ~38x.
- Thin analyst coverage: only 4 follow it — the ~$463 average target rests on very few opinions and can go stale fast.
This is educational and informational content, not financial advice. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Vectorial Data picked IDCC on 2026-07-09 at $269.50.
Full Research
InterDigital (IDCC) — Research Completo
Precio: $269.50 | P/E TTM: ~26x | P/E fwd: ~38x (GAAP 2026) | Div Yield: ~1.0% | Market Cap: ~$7 mil millones USD
¿Qué es InterDigital?
Una empresa de investigación y licenciamiento de patentes. Inventa tecnología fundamental de comunicaciones inalámbricas (3G/4G/5G/Wi-Fi y 6G) y de compresión de video (códecs HEVC, VVC, AV1), la patenta y cobra regalías a los fabricantes que usan esa tecnología. No fabrica nada físico. Fundada en 1972. Sede en Wilmington, Delaware. ~460 empleados (más de la mitad ingenieros; la mayoría, inventores). CEO: Liren Chen (desde 2021). Portafolio de ~30,000 patentes emitidas y en trámite, muchas estándar-esenciales (SEPs).
Cómo gana dinero
| Tipo de ingreso | Qué es | Comportamiento |
|---|---|---|
| Recurrente | Cuotas fijas de licencias ya firmadas (medido como ARR) | Estable, predecible. ARR cerró 2025 en $582M (+24%), récord de $492M en smartphones |
| Catch-up (recuperación) | Pagos únicos por uso pasado sin licencia (a menudo tras litigio/arbitraje) | Llega a golpes, no se repite — hace brincar la utilidad. $64M en Q1 2026 |
Último trimestre (Q1 2026, reportado 30 abr 2026)
| Métrica | Q1 2026 |
|---|---|
| Ingresos | $205 millones (arriba de la guía de $194-$200M; incluye $64M de catch-up) |
| Utilidad neta | $75.3 millones |
| EPS diluido | $2.14 (vs $3.45 un año antes) |
| ARR | $567 millones (récord de $492M en smartphones) |
| Acuerdos nuevos | 6, incluida la renovación con Xiaomi (5 años) y nueva licencia de TVs/monitores con LG |
| Por qué bajó la utilidad | Mayor reparto de regalías (+$24.8M) y más gasto en defensa de patentes |
Guía Q2 2026: ingresos de $139-$143 millones. Guía FY2026: ingresos de $675-$775 millones, EBITDA ajustado de $381-$477 millones y EPS GAAP diluido de $5.77-$8.51 — deliberadamente por debajo de 2025 porque llegan menos pagos únicos de catch-up. Próximo reporte: fines de julio de 2026.
Año completo 2025
| Métrica | FY2025 |
|---|---|
| Ingresos | $834 millones (2º mejor año de su historia; 2024 fue récord con $869M) |
| EBITDA ajustado | $589 millones (récord) |
| Utilidad neta | $407 millones |
| EPS GAAP / no-GAAP | $11.80 / $15.31 (récord no-GAAP) |
| ARR | $582 millones (+24%) |
Hitos de licencias y litigios
- Samsung (arbitraje, jul 2025): un panel de la Cámara de Comercio Internacional fijó las regalías en $1,050 millones por una licencia de ocho años (hasta el 31 dic 2030), para productos distintos de TVs/monitores.
- Xiaomi (ene 2026): renovación mundial a 5 años (celular, Wi-Fi, HEVC).
- LG (ene 2026): nueva licencia para TVs y monitores (programa conjunto con Sony; incluye ATSC 3.0, Wi-Fi y códecs de video).
- Otros acuerdos recientes: vivo, Honor y HP (el mayor fabricante de PCs del mundo).
- Amazon (abierto): litigio por códecs y streaming de video en tribunales de EE.UU. (Virginia, Texas) y Reino Unido.
- Disney (2025): InterDigital ganó medidas cautelares contra servicios de streaming de Disney en Brasil y Alemania.
- Vencimientos: 5 acuerdos que generaban ingresos expiraron en 2025 sin renovarse (incluida una licencia de TVs de Samsung que aportaba $31.7M/año).
Dividendo y retorno de capital
- $0.70 por acción al trimestre ($2.80 anuales) = ~1.0% a $269.50. Fecha de registro 8 jul 2026; pago ~22 jul 2026.
- 16 años consecutivos pagando dividendo, subido 3 años seguidos.
- Q1 2026: devolvió $26.3 millones vía dividendos + $8.2 millones de recompras, y redujo deuda en $88 millones.
- La apuesta es crecimiento + recompras; el dividendo es un extra, no el motor.
Valuación
- P/E TTM ~26x (EPS de los últimos 12 meses ~$10.49; la utilidad GAAP 2025 fue $11.80 pero cayó tras el flojo Q1 2026).
- P/E adelantado ~38x sobre el punto medio de la guía GAAP 2026 (~$7.14) — sube porque 2026 es un año más ligero en pagos únicos. Sobre estimaciones no-GAAP el múltiplo baja a ~27x.
- Market cap ~$7 mil millones (~25.9 millones de acciones).
Anchor Fact
InterDigital cobra una pequeña regalía por casi cada teléfono, televisor y dispositivo conectado que se vende en el mundo — sin fabricar ni uno solo. Su único producto son las ideas: inventa la tecnología del 5G, el Wi-Fi y el video digital, la patenta, y todos los que fabrican aparatos le pagan por usarla.
Top 6 Riesgos
- Ingresos irregulares — parte del dinero son pagos únicos de catch-up que no se repiten; 2026 guiado por debajo de 2025 a propósito; un buen año puede seguirse de uno flojo
- El negocio son litigios — pleitos abiertos con Amazon y Disney; un fallo adverso o una tasa FRAND baja fijada por un tribunal recorta lo que cobra; costos de defensa al alza
- Concentración de licenciatarios — pocos gigantes de smartphones/TVs concentran el ingreso; 5 acuerdos vencieron sin renovar en 2025 (incl. TV de Samsung, $31.7M/año)
- Las patentes caducan — una patente vive ~20 años; debe inventar sin parar para reemplazar las SEPs que vencen (riesgo de largo plazo si pierde el 6G o los nuevos códecs)
- Valuación tras años de subida — ~26x TTM y ~38x la guía GAAP 2026; la acción se multiplicó desde 2023 (hoy ~35% bajo su máximo de 52 semanas de $412.60)
- Cobertura escasa — solo 4 analistas la siguen; el target promedio (~$463) se apoya en muy pocas opiniones
Consenso de analistas
- Rating: Strong Buy (4 analistas — cobertura escasa)
- Target promedio: ~$463 (~+72% desde $269.50); rango $425-$488
- Lectura honesta: el upside teórico se ve enorme en parte porque la acción cayó ~35% desde su máximo de 52 semanas ($412.60) hasta $269.50. Con solo 4 analistas, es una señal frágil — vale más la tesis del negocio (peaje de la conectividad, márgenes ~70%) que el número del target.
Tesis en una línea
El peaje invisible de la conectividad: casi cada teléfono, TV y dispositivo del mundo usa tecnología inventada por InterDigital — 5G, Wi-Fi, video — y le paga una regalía por ella, sin que la empresa fabrique ni un solo aparato.
Research fecha: 9 Jul 2026 | Próxima revisión: Ene 2027
Esto no es asesoría financiera.
This is not financial advice. Consult a certified financial advisor.
The author may hold positions in the securities discussed.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.