Why did Vectorial Data pick TSM?

Three reasons. (1) AI DEMAND OUTRUNS IT: Q2 2026 revenue of $40.2 billion (+34% in dollars), net income NT$706.56 billion (+77%, ~12% above consensus) and gross margin 67.7%; Q3 guidance of $44.6–45.8 billion (+12% vs Q2) and the 2026 target raised to 'slightly above 40%' growth (previously more than 30%). August was a record (NT$514.81 billion, +53.3%) and January–August is up 39.3%. Wei calls the AI supply-demand gap 'very big', and the company admits its advanced-packaging capacity isn't enough. (2) INVESTING TO REMAIN THE ONLY OPTION: 2026 capital spending raised to $60–64 billion (from $52–56 billion), an additional $100 billion in Arizona for 2-nanometer and packaging fabs, and the next leap (A14) in volume production in 2028. (3) A REASONABLE PRICE FOR THAT GROWTH: at $421.94 it trades at 18.9x expected earnings; Strong Buy consensus from 20 analysts (19 buy, 1 hold, 0 sell), average target $552.38 (+30.9%, range $440–700). The dividend is rising fast: NT$5 → NT$6 → NT$7 per share per quarter, and in 2026 it pays out NT$24 per share vs NT$18 in 2025 (+33%); the September 15 purchase qualifies for the ~$1.11 per ADR payment (ex-dividend September 16, paid October 8).

What are the risks of investing in TSM?

#1: Taiwan. Nearly all its leading-edge manufacturing is on the island China claims as its own; any blockade or conflict would hit the company and half the tech world — the expansion in Arizona, Japan and Germany diversifies, but won't change that for years. Others: (2) a few customers weigh a lot: Nvidia (19%) and Apple (17%) were over a third of 2025 revenue, and 66% of sales depend on AI computing; (3) if AI spending slows: TSMC is building record capacity ($60–64 billion in 2026 alone) — it would be hit late, with new factories half full; (4) US tariffs: on September 2–3, 2026, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirmed a second phase of chip tariffs, with exemptions for companies that manufacture in the US; TSMC is well placed thanks to Arizona, but the details are still open; (5) pressured margins: the 2-nanometer ramp cuts 3–4 points of gross margin in H2 2026 and factories outside Taiwan another 2–3 (up to 3–4 as they grow); (6) it has already run up a lot: ~+78% over 12 months as of September 4, with the semiconductor index ~15% below its June peak — the stock moves with the sector; (7) the dividend is small (0.98%): you buy growth here, not income.

Does TSM pay dividends?

Yes. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited pays a dividend of about 0.98% per year.

How can I buy TSM with little money?

You can buy fractional shares of TSM starting from a few dollars with any broker that offers fractional shares. The Vectorial Data method: invest the same amount in every pick, every time.

When was this TSM analysis last updated?

The TSM analysis was last updated on Invalid Date.

Stocks/TSM

TSM — Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited

TechnologyAsiaTaiwan

$421.94

Target: $552.38 (+30.9%)

P/E Ratio

30.7

P/E Forward

18.9

Dividend

0.98%

Market Cap

$2150.7B

EPS

$13.5

Consensus

Strong Buy

What they do

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company — TSMC (Hsinchu, Taiwan; Chairman and CEO C.C. Wei; 90,557 employees at the end of 2025) is the world's largest chip foundry: it manufactures, under contract, the chips other companies design, without competing against them with products of its own. Its biggest customers in 2025 were Nvidia (19% of revenue) and Apple (17%). In Wei's words: whether a processor is x86, Arm or RISC-V — 'almost all of them are TSMC's customers'.

Q2 2026 mix: high-performance computing (AI and data-center chips) 66% of revenue, smartphones 22%, automotive 4%. 77% of what it sells comes from its most advanced processes (7 nanometers or smaller): 3 nanometers 30%, 5 nanometers 33%, 7 nanometers 11% and the new 2 nanometers already 3%, ramping fast.

It's listed in Taipei (2330) and on the NYSE as an ADR (TSM). It manufactures mostly in Taiwan and is expanding in Arizona (total commitment of $265 billion), Japan and Germany; in August 2026 it approved a joint venture with Sony for next-generation image sensors.

Why we like it

Three reasons.

AI DEMAND OUTRUNS IT: Q2 2026 revenue of $40.2 billion (+34% in dollars), net income NT$706.56 billion (+77%, ~12% above consensus) and gross margin 67.7%; Q3 guidance of $44.6–45.8 billion (+12% vs Q2) and the 2026 target raised to 'slightly above 40%' growth (previously more than 30%). August was a record (NT$514.81 billion, +53.3%) and January–August is up 39.3%. Wei calls the AI supply-demand gap 'very big', and the company admits its advanced-packaging capacity isn't enough.
INVESTING TO REMAIN THE ONLY OPTION: 2026 capital spending raised to $60–64 billion (from $52–56 billion), an additional $100 billion in Arizona for 2-nanometer and packaging fabs, and the next leap (A14) in volume production in 2028.
A REASONABLE PRICE FOR THAT GROWTH: at $421.94 it trades at 18.9x expected earnings; Strong Buy consensus from 20 analysts (19 buy, 1 hold, 0 sell), average target $552.38 (+30.9%, range $440–700). The dividend is rising fast: NT$5 → NT$6 → NT$7 per share per quarter, and in 2026 it pays out NT$24 per share vs NT$18 in 2025 (+33%); the September 15 purchase qualifies for the ~$1.11 per ADR payment (ex-dividend September 16, paid October 8).

Key Risk

#1: Taiwan. Nearly all its leading-edge manufacturing is on the island China claims as its own; any blockade or conflict would hit the company and half the tech world — the expansion in Arizona, Japan and Germany diversifies, but won't change that for years. Others:

a few customers weigh a lot: Nvidia (19%) and Apple (17%) were over a third of 2025 revenue, and 66% of sales depend on AI computing;
if AI spending slows: TSMC is building record capacity ($60–64 billion in 2026 alone) — it would be hit late, with new factories half full;
US tariffs: on September 2–3, 2026, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirmed a second phase of chip tariffs, with exemptions for companies that manufacture in the US; TSMC is well placed thanks to Arizona, but the details are still open;
pressured margins: the 2-nanometer ramp cuts 3–4 points of gross margin in H2 2026 and factories outside Taiwan another 2–3 (up to 3–4 as they grow);
it has already run up a lot: ~+78% over 12 months as of September 4, with the semiconductor index ~15% below its June peak — the stock moves with the sector;
the dividend is small (0.98%): you buy growth here, not income.

This is educational and informational content, not financial advice. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Vectorial Data picked TSM on 2026-09-15 at $421.94.

Last updated: Invalid Date

Dividends received by the Vectorial portfolio

TSM has not paid a dividend to the portfolio yet.

Full Research

Qué hace. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company — TSMC (TWSE: 2330; NYSE: TSM como ADR; Hsinchu Science Park, Taiwán; presidente y CEO C.C. Wei; CFO Wendell Huang; 90,557 empleados al 31-dic-2025) es la mayor fundición de chips por contrato del mundo: fabrica los diseños de sus clientes sin vender chips propios. Clientes principales 2025 (20-F): Nvidia 19% del ingreso (vs 12% en 2024) y Apple 17% (vs 22%). Mezcla por plataforma en el segundo trimestre 2026: cómputo de alto rendimiento 66% (+20% contra el trimestre anterior), teléfonos inteligentes 22% (−4%), automotriz 4% (+15%). Por tecnología: 7 nanómetros o menos = 77% del ingreso de obleas (2nm 3%, 3nm 30%, 5nm 33%, 7nm 11%). En la llamada de resultados Wei dijo que la IA agéntica está reactivando la demanda de procesadores centrales y que, sea x86, Arm o RISC-V, 'casi todos son clientes de TSMC'.

Resultados (segundo trimestre 2026, 16 de julio). Ingresos NT$1,270,380 millones / $40,200 millones (+36% en NT$, +33.7% en dólares; +12% contra el primer trimestre), en la parte alta de su guía. Utilidad neta NT$706,560 millones (+77.4%; quinto trimestre récord seguido; consenso ~NT$632,640 millones); utilidad por acción NT$27.25 = $4.31 por ADR (+77.4%). Margen bruto 67.7%, operativo 60.3%, neto 55.6%. Guía del tercer trimestre: ingresos $44,600–45,800 millones, margen bruto 65–67%, operativo 56–58% (tipo de cambio 32 NT$ por dólar). Guía 2026: crecimiento de ingresos 'un poco más de 40%' en dólares (antes, más de 30%). Primer trimestre 2026: ingresos NT$1,134,100 millones y utilidad por acción NT$22.08.

Ventas mensuales. Julio 2026: NT$467,580 millones (+44.7%). Agosto 2026 (10 de septiembre): NT$514,810 millones (+10.1% contra julio, +53.3% anual) — primera vez arriba de NT$500,000 millones y cuarto mes seguido de alza. Enero–agosto: NT$3,386,870 millones (+39.3%).

Capacidad y tecnología. Gasto de capital 2026 subido a $60,000–64,000 millones (desde $52,000–56,000 millones); 70–80% para procesos avanzados, ~10% especialidades, 10–20% empaquetado, pruebas y máscaras. El 11 de agosto el consejo aprobó ~$29,442 millones en asignaciones de capital. Arizona: $100,000 millones adicionales anunciados el 16 de julio para fábricas de 2 nanómetros y empaquetado avanzado (compromiso total $265,000 millones). Expansión también en Japón y Alemania; 13 fábricas de punta y empaquetado planeadas en Taiwán. Hoja de ruta: 2 nanómetros en subida pronunciada en el tercer trimestre; A14 (10–15% más velocidad o 25–30% menos consumo vs N2) con preproducción en 2027 y volumen en 2028; A13 y A12 en 2029. Empresa conjunta con Sony Semiconductor Solutions para sensores de imagen (inversión de TSMC de hasta ¥282,000 millones). En septiembre la empresa reconoció fuertes restricciones de capacidad de empaquetado avanzado frente a la demanda de IA.

Dividendo. Trimestral y creciente: NT$5 por acción (segundo trimestre 2025) → NT$6 (tercer trimestre 2025, +20%) → NT$6 (cuarto) → NT$7 (primer trimestre 2026) → NT$7 (segundo trimestre 2026, aprobado el 11 de agosto). Dividendos distribuidos en 2026: NT$24 por acción vs NT$18 en 2025 (+33%). Próximo pago: ~$1.11 por ADR, fecha ex-dividendo 16 de septiembre de 2026 y pago 8 de octubre — la compra del 15 de septiembre lo alcanza. El del segundo trimestre (NT$7; ~$1.08 por ADR) tiene fecha ex-dividendo el 10 de diciembre y pago el 7 de enero de 2027. Rendimiento ~0.98% al precio de compra.

EE.UU. y política. Acuerdo comercial EE.UU.–Taiwán (enero 2026): arancel recíproco a bienes taiwaneses con tope de 15%, a cambio de al menos $250,000 millones de inversión directa de empresas taiwanesas en EE.UU. El 2–3 de septiembre de 2026 el secretario de Comercio Howard Lutnick confirmó que se prepara una segunda fase de aranceles a chips importados (y a productos como laptops y servidores), con exenciones para empresas que fabriquen en EE.UU.; la medida está en fase temprana y Taiwán busca trato preferente. TSMC, con $265,000 millones comprometidos en Arizona, es de las mejor posicionadas para esas exenciones.

Acción. $421.94 de apertura (15 de septiembre de 2026); capitalización ~$2,150,700 millones; P/E 30.7x TTM / 18.9x forward; utilidad por acción TTM $13.50 (por ADR). ~+78% en 12 meses y ~+32% en el año al 4 de septiembre; el 14 de septiembre abrió −3.26% en una baja del sector tecnológico. El índice de semiconductores PHLX estaba ~15% abajo de su pico de junio. Consenso Strong Buy (Yahoo 1.4; 20 analistas: 19 compra, 1 mantener); target promedio $552.38 (rango $440–700), +30.9%. Stifel inició cobertura con Compra el 1 de septiembre.

Riesgos. (1) Geopolítica de Taiwán: la mayor parte de la fabricación de punta está en la isla; la diversificación en Arizona, Japón y Alemania tomará años. (2) Concentración: Nvidia 19% y Apple 17% del ingreso 2025; 66% del ingreso en cómputo de alto rendimiento ligado a IA. (3) Ciclo de inversión en IA: capacidad récord en construcción; un frenazo del gasto la dejaría subutilizada. (4) Aranceles de EE.UU. a chips (segunda fase anunciada en septiembre 2026, detalles abiertos). (5) Márgenes: dilución de 3–4 puntos por la subida de 2 nanómetros en el segundo semestre 2026 y de 2–3 puntos (hasta 3–4) por fábricas en el extranjero; debilidad de consumo por componentes más caros. (6) Valuación y volatilidad tras ~+78% en un año; la acción se mueve con el sector. (7) Dividendo bajo (0.98%).

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Researched: 9/15/2026Updated: 9/15/2026Next review: 3/15/2027

This is not financial advice. Consult a certified financial advisor.

The author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.