AMKBY — A.P. Møller-Mærsk (ADR)
$11.51
Target: $10.40 (-9.6%)
P/E Ratio
12.9
P/E Forward
—
Dividend
3.23%
Market Cap
$33.4B
EPS
$0.89
Consensus
Hold
What they do
A.P. Møller-Mærsk A/S is the world's #2 container shipping company (behind MSC) and the largest logistics integrator globally. Founded in 1904 by A.P. Møller and Peter Mærsk-Møller in Svendborg, Denmark. HQ in Copenhagen. ~95,000 employees, 130 countries. AMKBY is the ADR OTC in the USA (tier OTCPK). Structure: 1 AMKBY ADR = 1/200 of a B share (MAERSK-B.CO) in Copenhagen. Trades in USD ($11.51 on April 27, 2026), but reports business in native USD (not DKK). Three operating segments:
- Ocean (~65% revenue, $35B in 2025): 726 ships with 4.5M TEU capacity (14% global market share). The most cyclical segment — half of the cycle bottom 2026 is here. FY2025 EBIT fell -71% to $1.4B;
- Logistics & Services (~28%, $15.1B in 2025): forwarding (air + LCL + project cargo), landside (warehousing + e-commerce delivery + customs), solutions (digital platforms). EBIT +36% to $729M in 2025 — a segment that didn't exist materially five years ago;
- Terminals (~10%, $5.3B in 2025): APM Terminals — 65 global terminals. The portfolio jewel: utilization 88%, ROIC 16.1%, EBIT margin >30%, +20% revenue YoY. Towage & misc (Svitzer) represents the residual. CEO since January 2023: Vincent Clerc — Danish, with Mærsk since 1998. Led Ocean & Logistics 2019-2022 (he is the architect of the integrator strategy). In February 2026 announced ~1,000 additional layoffs (HQ Copenhagen + regional) for $160M cost-out. Gemini Cooperation (alliance with Hapag-Lloyd, launched February 1, 2025): operationally exceptional — schedule reliability ~92.3% vs 62.4% industry average. But losing share because its capacity is fixed (Hub & Spoke) while MSC standalone and Premier Alliance expand. Møller Family (via A.P. Møller Holding) controls ~42% of the votes.
Why we like it
AMKBY at $11.51 is a highly asymmetric contrarian bet: buying at the shipping cycle bottom when the market expects a quick normalization of the Suez that seems not to be happening, while non-Ocean segments are turning upward and the valuation is below book value. Specific thesis:
- The "Suez return" is stalling — this protects rates more than guidance assumes: Houthi cease-fire took effect in October 2025 and the first Mærsk ships passed through Suez in December. BUT: February 28 and March 28, 2026, the Houthis re-threatened and resumed attacks tied to the US-Israel-Iran escalation. Suez transit volume still -60% vs 2023. Xeneta (the authoritative voice on freight rates): "this crushes the hope of a large-scale return to the Red Sea in 2026." SCFI April 27: 1,875 points = +39% YoY. Rates are HIGHER than a year ago, not collapsing;
- Guidance EBIT -$1.5B to +$1.0B assumes rapid normalization: if the Cape route prolongs = 6-8% less capacity in the market = much higher rate floor than modeled. Guidance is essentially a binary option on Red Sea geopolitics. The reality of April 2026 is supporting the upside;
- P/B 0.61 = the world's cheapest large shipping company in book: Hapag-Lloyd bought ZIM in February 2026 at $35/share = 1.06x P/B ($4.2B deal, 58% premium to pre-announcement close). That sets a conceptual floor for the market: strategists pay 1.06x book for cyclical shipping. Mærsk at 0.61x = ~40% implicit discount to deal print. If Hapag-Lloyd paid that for ZIM (smaller, less integrated), Mærsk at 1.0x book = $19/ADR (+65%);
- Terminals + L&S turning up while Ocean turns down: Terminals EBIT FY2025 +31% to $1.7B with ROIC 16.1%; L&S EBIT +36% to $729M. The two non-Ocean = $2.4B combined EBIT, enough to cover the entire 2026 dividend ($1.05B implied by DKK 480) and the $1B buyback. If Ocean enters operating loss in 2026, the good segments continue paying cash flow to shareholders;
- Capital return defended: $2.1B total 2026 (DKK 480 dividend + $1B buyback). Yield 3.23% on AMKBY today. Buyback in April 2026 at 0.61x P/B = arithmetic compression of book per share over time. Every dollar they buy back below book is instantly accretive;
- Accounting useful life change +$700M to EBIT 2026: effective January 1, 2026, Mærsk extended the useful life of ships from 20 to 25 years (consistent with post-COVID operational reality — ships are maintained better than modeled). It's ~$700M less depreciation = $700M more GAAP EBIT. Purely accounting, but real for reported earnings;
- Gemini schedule reliability 92.3% is a structural moat: global industry avg 62.4% at the start of 2026. Hapag + Mærsk lead rankings. Premium shippers (BMW, Apple, Walmart) pay a premium for reliability — when Suez normalizes and supply exceeds, Gemini retains contracts while non-allied carriers fight for spot;
- Vincent Clerc focused and disciplined: 1,000 layoffs Feb-Mar 2026 + $160M cost-out annually. Double down on integrator strategy (no Ocean spinoff). 27 methanol ships in fleet end-2025 (from 1 in 2023) = lead structural in decarbonization — EU ETS and FuelEU Maritime favor low-emission fleet, asymmetric regulatory cost against traditional competition.
Key Risk
The dominant and specifically quantifiable risk is the double source of supply when Suez normalizes: the complete Cape→Suez return releases 6-8% of global effective capacity instantly. HSBC modeled a rate decline of 9-16% in that scenario; accelerated transition adds an additional -10%. Mærsk could enter a net operating loss — and the guidance itself reflects this: floor EBIT -$1.5B in 2026. Other risks:
- Extreme structural overcapacity: industry orderbook = 33.5% of the existing fleet (~11.3M TEU on order). Historically levels >25% have preceded 3-5 year bear cycles. Supply growth 2026 +3.6% vs demand +3.0% = oversupply of ~60 bps. Industry forecast: ~$10B AGGREGATE LOSS of carriers in 2026 vs $20B profit in 2025;
- US-China structural weakness: US imports from China -28% YoY in 2025; Q1 2026 remains -30% YoY. Top-5 carriers report -33%+ booking decline TPEB. Trade truce is 12 months, not structural. Permanent sourcing displacement to Indonesia/Thailand/Vietnam favors other routes, not necessarily Mærsk;
- Negative Free Cash Flow 2026: guidance FCF -$3B while paying dividend $1.05B + buyback $1B = $2.05B out vs negative cash coming in. Balance sheet absorbs the gap (~$30B total liquidity). Sustainable 1-2 years; problematic if cycle bottom lasts longer;
- Houthi/Iran resumption: February 28 and March 28, 2026 attacks already restored partial diversion. If Iran escalation expands regional conflict, risk of damage to ships or insurance pricing skyrocketing;
- FY2025 dividend cut vs FY2024: payment DKK 480 (40% payout on net income $2.9B) vs DKK 1,300+ pre-cycle bottom. If 2026 EBIT enters loss, 2027 dividend could be cut again (not cutting would imply payout >100%);
- Gemini losing relative share: Asia-NA West Coast 15%→13%, Asia-NA East Coast 20%→17%, Asia-N Europe 27%→23% between April 2025 and May 2026. By design Hub & Spoke = fixed capacity. Spot shippers go to alliances adding capacity. Reliability premium may not compensate for share loss;
- Single-analyst Yahoo projecting -$0.28 EPS 2027: reflects trough scenario — full Suez + peak capacity + tariffs ceiling + pre-COVID mean-reverting tariffs. Broad consensus (37 analysts, "Moderate Sell" panel with 9 sell / 0 buy) has median target DKK 13,245 = -10% downside in local currency on Copenhagen;
- Bunker fuel volatility: VLSFO Singapore can absorb 8-12% of Ocean revenue. Iran tensions spike fuel prices doubly — attacks + sanctions on Iran crude. Hedging typically covers only 20-30%;
- Q1 2026 reports May 7, 2026 (10 days) — first post-guidance test. Any additional guide cut = -10-15% day 1.
This is educational and informational content, not financial advice. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Vectorial Data picked AMKBY on 2026-04-27 at $11.51.
Full Research
A.P. Møller-Mærsk (AMKBY ADR / MAERSK-B Copenhagen) — Research Completo
Precio: $11.51 (AMKBY) | DKK 14,720 (MAERSK-B) | P/E TTM: 12.93x | P/E Forward: N/A* | Div Yield: 3.23% | Market Cap: $33.4B | P/B: 0.61
*P/E forward técnicamente -42.5x — refleja proyección de un solo analista que modela pérdida pequeña en 2027. Lo dejamos N/A por baja informatividad.
Estructura del ADR
1 AMKBY ADR = 1/200 de una acción B (MAERSK-B) en Copenhague.
Math check (27 abr 2026):
- MAERSK-B: 14,720 DKK
- Tipo de cambio: ~6.40 DKK/USD
- 14,720 / 200 = 73.6 DKK por unidad ADR-equivalent
- 73.6 / 6.40 = $11.50 ✅
Cotiza en OTC Markets OTCPK (no en NYSE/Nasdaq). Reporta finanzas en USD nativo (a diferencia de la mayoría de ADRs europeos que reportan en moneda doméstica).
Qué Es
A.P. Møller-Mærsk A/S es el #2 mundial de shipping de contenedores (detrás de MSC, que es privada con ~22% market share). Es el integrador logístico más grande del planeta, operando en 130 países.
Fundada 1904 por A.P. Møller y su padre Peter Mærsk-Møller en Svendborg, Dinamarca. HQ Copenhague. ~95,000 empleados.
CEO desde enero 2023: Vincent Clerc — danés, con Mærsk desde 1998. Lideró Ocean & Logistics 2019-2022, arquitecto de la estrategia integrator. Reemplazó a Søren Skou.
Familia Møller (a través de A.P. Møller Holding): ~42% de los votos. Es la familia controladora desde 1904. Ane Mærsk Mc-Kinney Uggla (presidenta de A.P. Møller Holding) es la cabeza actual.
Estructura de Segmentos (FY 2025)
| Segmento | Revenue 2025 | % Revenue | EBIT FY 2025 | YoY EBIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ocean | $35.0B | ~65% | $1.4B | -71% |
| Logistics & Services | $15.1B | ~28% | $729M | +36% |
| Terminals | $5.3B | ~10% | $1.7B | +31% |
| Towage & Misc | residual | <1% | residual | - |
Revenue total FY 2025: $54.0B. EBITDA $9.5B. EBIT $3.5B (top end de guidance original).
1. Ocean — El Segmento Cíclico
- 726 buques de contenedores
- Capacidad: 4.5M TEU
- Market share global: 14% (#2 detrás de MSC ~22%)
- 3.38M FFE cargados en FY 2025 (+8% YoY)
- Tarifa promedio FY 2025: -23% YoY
EBIT cayó de $4.9B (2024) a $1.4B (2025) — el efecto de freight rates normalizándose post-pico Houthi de mediados-2024. Q4 2025: EBIT -$153M (primera pérdida trimestral del cycle).
2. Logistics & Services — El Segmento Estratégico
Reorganizado 2024 en 3 sub-segments:
- Landside (gestionado por país): warehousing, e-commerce delivery, contract logistics, customs
- Forwarding (global): aéreo + LCL + project cargo + insurance
- Solutions (global): digital platforms, supply chain visibility
- 2025 revenue $15.1B (+1.2%)
- 2025 EBIT $729M (+36%)
- 2025 EBITDA $1.7B (+17%)
E-commerce: Mærsk delivers to 93% of US in <3 days. Multi-carrier parcel network. Customs: AI-driven HS code harmonization (WCO Data Model). Estos no eran propuestas hace 5 años.
3. Terminals (APM Terminals) — La Joya
- 65 terminales globales
- 2025 revenue $5.3B (+20%)
- EBITDA $1.8B (+15%)
- EBIT $1.7B (+31%)
- ROIC 16.1% (vs Ocean ROIC <5% en bottom)
- Utilización 88%
- Volume +8.4% YoY
EBIT margin Terminals >30%. Es el segmento que el mercado siempre subestima.
Q4 2025 (5 feb 2026)
| Métrica | Q4 2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $13.3B | -8.7% |
| EBITDA | $1.8B | margin 13.8% |
| EBIT | $118M | margin 0.9% |
| Ocean EBIT | -$153M | vs +$1.6B Q4 2024 |
| Terminals EBIT | $321M | volume +8.4% |
| L&S EBIT | $194M | margin 4.9% |
Q1 2026 reporta el 7 de mayo 2026 (10 días después de hoy).
Guidance FY 2026 (issued 5 feb 2026)
- EBITDA: $4.5-$7.0B (consensus había $6.5B)
- EBIT: -$1.5B a +$1.0B (rango binario amplio = Suez incertidumbre)
- FCF: al menos -$3.0B (Morgan Stanley había modelado -$0.8B → guide negativa surprise)
- CapEx 2026-27: $10-11B combinado
- Asume demanda global containerized +2-4%; Mærsk crece in-line con mercado
- Incluye ~$700M de tailwind de depreciación por extender useful life de buques de 20 a 25 años (efectivo 1 enero 2026)
El Tape de Tarifas (al 27 abril 2026)
SCFI (Shanghai Containerized Freight Index)
- 27 abril 2026: 1,875.26 puntos
- Flat WoW; +2.65% MoM; +39.13% YoY
Drewry World Container Index (40ft container)
| Fecha | $/40ft | Δ |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 2 | $2,287 | stable |
| Apr 9 | $2,309 | +1% |
| Apr 16 | $2,246 | -3% |
| Apr 23 | $2,232 | -1% |
- Asia-Europe declining: Shanghai→Genoa $3,071 (-8%), Shanghai→Rotterdam $2,147 (-4%)
- Transpacific holding: Shanghai→LA $2,934 (+4%), Shanghai→NY $3,562 (flat)
- Transatlantic: $2,326 (+15% por PSS $1,100/40ft efectivo abr 15 + capacity cuts)
Conclusión del tape: tarifas están en niveles que sostienen el upside de guidance, no el downside.
El Status del Mar Rojo / Suez
| Evento | Fecha |
|---|---|
| Houthi cease-fire (Gaza peace plan) | 10 oct 2025 |
| Primer buque Mærsk transitando Suez (Sebarok) | 19 dic 2025 |
| CMA CGM MEDEX/INDAMEX retornan vía Suez | ene 2026 |
| Houthis amenazan/reanudan ataques (US/Israel-Iran) | 28 feb 2026 |
| Segunda ronda Houthi attacks | 28 mar 2026 |
| Tránsitos Suez = -60% vs 2023 | abril 2026 |
Xeneta (Peter Sand): "esto destroza la esperanza de un retorno de gran escala al Mar Rojo en 2026".
Mærsk MECL service: "permanent transition back to Suez".
Capacidad unlock estimada de full Cape→Suez return: 6-8% del global container capacity instantáneamente.
Gemini Cooperation (Alianza con Hapag-Lloyd)
- Lanzada operativamente: 1 feb 2025
- Schedule reliability promedio: ~92.3% (vs industry avg 62.4%)
- Asia-N Europe + Transatlantic: >95%
- Diseño "Hub & Spoke": pocas paradas en hubs principales + shuttles a ports más pequeños
Capacity dynamics (abr 2025 → may 2026):
- Asia-NA West Coast: 15% → 13%
- Asia-NA East Coast: 20% → 17%
- Asia-N Europe: 27% → 23%
Gemini pierde share relativa porque su capacidad es fija por design (Hub & Spoke) mientras competidores (MSC standalone, Premier Alliance ONE/HMM/Yang Ming, Ocean Alliance CMA CGM/Cosco/Evergreen) expanden volumen. Trade-off: reliability vs capacidad.
Mærsk solo: 726 buques / 4.5M TEU / 14% share. Hapag-Lloyd solo: 270 buques / 1.9M TEU.
Capital Return
Dividendo
- FY 2025 (paid 2026): DKK 480/B-share = $0.37/ADR
- 40% payout ratio sobre net income $2.9B
- AGM 26 marzo 2026 aprobó
- Yield 3.23% sobre AMKBY $11.51
Cortado vs FY 2024: net income cayó de $6B a $2.9B; payout policy 30-50%.
Buybacks
- 2026 autorizado: $1.0B
- 2025 completados (Feb + Aug tranches)
- Reducción de capital: DKK 1.133B vía cancelación de A y B shares (aprobado AGM 2026)
Total cash return 2026: $2.1B
(~6.3% del market cap)
Decarbonización & Fleet
- Net-zero target: 2040 (10 años antes de IMO 2050)
- Methanol dual-fuel fleet: 19 buques al end-2025 (vs 1 en 2023), +6 en 2026, 25 dual-fuel para 2027
- 800,000 TEU fleet renewal program activo
- 6 buques 17,480-TEU methanol entregados (último: Barcelona Mærsk, ene 2026)
- 20 dual-fuel vessels (300,000 TEU) on order across 3 shipyards
- Laura Mærsk recibió primer e-methanol comercial de Kassø (Dinamarca, mayo 2025), 42,000 t/yr capacity
Industry orderbook = 33.5% del fleet existente (~11.3M TEU on order). Históricamente extremo.
Macro / Cycle Context
- 2025 demanda global containerized: +3.5-4.2%
- 2026 consensus: +3.0%
- 2026 supply growth: +3.6% = oversupply ~60 bps
- Industry overcapacity: ~27% promedio 2026-2028
- Industry P&L: ~$60B profit 2024 → ~$20B 2025 → forecast ~$10B PÉRDIDA AGREGADA 2026
US-China
- Imports US-de-China: -28% YoY 2025, Q1 2026 sigue -30%
- Top-5 carriers reportan -33%+ booking decline en TPEB eastbound
- Sourcing displacement: Indonesia US imports +34% en 2025; Tailandia +28%
- US-China truce = 12-month, no estructural
ZIM-Hapag Print = Floor de Valuación
- Feb 2026: Hapag-Lloyd anunció acquisition de ZIM
- Precio: $35/acción cash = $4.2B deal
- Premium: 58% sobre Feb 13, 2026 close
- Implied multiple: ~1.06x P/B
Mærsk hoy: 0.61x P/B. ZIM print 1.06x P/B sobre un competidor más pequeño y menos integrado.
Si Mærsk cotizara a 1.0x P/B = $19/ADR (+65% upside).
ZIM (post-deal) está siendo escindido en "New ZIM" como Israeli spinoff — los activos no-Israelíes van a Hapag-Lloyd.
Peer Set
| Compañía | P/E TTM | P/B | Notas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mærsk B (MAERSK-B / AMKBY) | 12.93 | 0.61 | trades below book |
| Hapag-Lloyd (HLAG.DE) | n/a precise | 1.12-1.18 | EUR 115-118; mkt cap €21B |
| ZIM | 2.64 (pre-deal) | 1.06x (deal print) | siendo adquirido |
| COSCO Shipping (1919.HK) | 3.8-11.9 | 0.53-1.24 | range amplio entre fuentes |
| Mitsui O.S.K. (9104.T) | 2.5-10 | n/a | Elliott built stake mar 2026 (+11%) |
Mærsk = la grande más barata en book. Solo COSCO comparable, pero menos líquida y con riesgo China geopolitical.
Métricas Financieras
| Métrica | Valor |
|---|---|
| AMKBY price | $11.51 |
| MAERSK-B price | DKK 14,720 |
| Market Cap | $33.4B |
| P/E TTM | 12.93x |
| P/B | 0.61x |
| EPS TTM (ADR) | $0.89 |
| Book Value (ADR) | $18.95 |
| Dividend | $0.37/ADR |
| Yield | 3.23% |
| Buyback 2026 | $1.0B |
| Total Return 2026 | $2.1B |
| FY 2025 Revenue | $54.0B |
| FY 2025 EBIT | $3.5B |
| FY 2025 EBITDA | $9.5B |
| FY 2026 EBIT Guidance | -$1.5B a +$1.0B |
| FY 2026 FCF Guidance | ≥ -$3.0B |
| Net Income FY 2025 | $2.9B |
Por Qué Ahora
1. Suez Return Estancándose
SCFI +39% YoY. Houthi attacks 28 feb + 28 mar 2026. Tránsitos Suez -60% vs 2023. Tarifas más altas que hace un año, no colapsando como guidance asume.
2. Discount a Print Privado de M&A
ZIM vendido a 1.06x P/B. Mærsk a 0.61x = ~40% descuento implícito al deal print más reciente del sector.
3. Terminals + L&S Cubren Dividendo Solos
$2.4B EBIT combinado de los segments no-Ocean. Dividendo $1.05B + buyback $1B = $2.05B salidas. Cubierto sin necesidad de Ocean profit.
4. Vincent Clerc Disciplinado
1,000 layoffs feb-mar 2026 + $160M cost-out. Doble apuesta a integrator, no spinoff. Lead estructural en methanol fleet.
5. Accounting Tailwind de $700M
Useful life 20→25 años efectivo 1 enero 2026 = $700M más EBIT GAAP en 2026 puramente por accounting (real para earnings reportados).
6. Capital Return Sustainable
$2.1B total 2026 = 6.3% del market cap. Buyback a 0.61x P/B = accretion instantáneo a book per share.
7. Optionality Asimétrica
Floor: P/B 0.61 hard. Ceiling: si Suez no normaliza + L&S/Terminals siguen creciendo + ZIM print holds = re-rate fácil a 1.0x P/B = +65%.
Riesgos
1. Doble Oferta cuando Suez Normalice
6-8% capacidad efectiva liberada instantáneamente. HSBC: -9 a -16% en tarifas. Acelerada: -10% adicional.
2. Sobrecapacidad Estructural
33.5% orderbook/fleet. Supply +3.6% vs demanda +3.0% en 2026. Industry forecast: ~$10B PÉRDIDA AGREGADA carriers 2026.
3. US-China Estructural
Imports -28% YoY 2025. Truce 12-meses. Sourcing displacement permanente. TPEB no se recupera fast.
4. FCF Negativo 2026
-$3B FCF mientras paga $2.05B a accionistas = balance sheet absorbe. Sostenible 1-2 años; problemático si cycle bottom dura más.
5. Houthi/Iran Reanudación
Ataques feb-mar 2026 ya restauraron diversion parcial. Escalada Iran amplía riesgo.
6. Dividend Cut Riesgo
DKK 480 (40% payout) sostenible con $2.9B net income 2025. Si EBIT entra en pérdida 2026, dividendo 2027 podría re-cortarse.
7. Gemini Share Loss
Capacidad fija by design = pierde share relativa mientras competidores expanden. Reliability premium puede no compensar.
8. Single-Analyst -$0.28 EPS 2027
Refleja escenario trough completo. Consenso amplio Moderate Sell con mediana DKK 13,245 = -10% downside.
9. Q1 2026 = 7 mayo 2026
Primer test post-guidance. Cualquier guide cut adicional = -10-15% día 1.
10. Bunker Fuel Volatilidad
VLSFO Singapore puede absorber 8-12% del Ocean revenue. Iran tensiones disparan double-whammy. Hedging cubre 20-30% típicamente.
Conclusión
AMKBY a $11.51 te permite comprar:
- El #2 global de shipping + el integrador logístico más grande del mundo
- 0.61x P/B vs ZIM-Hapag deal print de 1.06x P/B = ~40% descuento implícito al benchmark privado
- Terminals + L&S ($2.4B EBIT combinado) que cubren el cash return entero solas
- 3.23% dividend yield + $1B buyback = 6.3% total return on market cap
- Optionality binaria sobre Suez geopolítica — guidance asume normalización rápida que no está pasando
- Lead structural en methanol fleet (19 buques end-2025 vs 1 en 2023) con EU ETS asimétrico contra competencia tradicional
La tesis no es "shipping vuelve a 2024 super-cycle". Es: el bottom es shallower than priced, los segments no-Ocean inflexionan arriba, y los compradores estratégicos privados pagan 1.06x P/B por activos cíclicos similares. Si Suez no normaliza fast → upside de guidance. Si normaliza → P/B 0.61 floor + buyback accretive + dividendo 3.23%. Asimetría que rara vez existe en large-cap.
Research fecha: 27 Abr 2026 | Próxima revisión: Oct 2026
Esto no es asesoría financiera.
This is not financial advice. Consult a certified financial advisor.
The author may hold positions in the securities discussed.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.