ESLT — Elbit Systems Ltd.
$759.98
Target: $868.50 (+14.3%)
P/E Ratio
61.5
P/E Forward
50.9
Dividend
0.5%
Market Cap
$35.3B
EPS
$12.36
Consensus
Hold
What they do
Elbit Systems (Nasdaq: ESLT) is Israel's largest defense company and an end-to-end supplier — meaning it doesn't do one thing, it does almost the entire modern military menu:
- Drones — its Hermes family (Hermes 900, Hermes 650 Spark): unmanned surveillance and strike aircraft used by dozens of countries.
- Guided munitions and smart bombs — projectiles that correct their course in flight.
- Electro-optic systems — the high-tech 'eyes' (thermal cameras, lasers, sights) mounted on tanks, aircraft, ships, and soldiers.
- Electronic warfare — equipment that detects, confuses, and jams enemy radars and missiles.
- Artillery — the PULS rocket launcher (a competitor to the American HIMARS, already chosen by Germany, the Netherlands, Denmark, and Greece, among others) and the ATMOS self-propelled howitzer.
- Land, air, and naval systems — from active tank protection (Iron Fist) to smart helmets for fighter pilots.
- C4I and cyber defense — military radios, command-and-control systems, and cyber protection.
The context that changes everything: the world is living through the biggest rearmament cycle since the Cold War. The war in Ukraine forced Europe to rebuild arsenals; at the NATO summit in The Hague (June 2025) allies agreed to raise defense spending toward 5% of GDP by 2035; and Middle East tensions keep Israeli demand high. Elbit sells exactly what is most needed: munitions, rocket artillery, drones, and electronic defense.
The numbers of the moment (Q1 2026, reported May 26, 2026):
- Revenue: $2.19 billion (+15.4% year over year).
- Adjusted EPS: $3.87 (+51%; analysts expected $3.35).
- Record backlog of $30.2 billion — orders already signed, the equivalent of nearly 4 years of revenue. 71% comes from outside Israel and ~49% is scheduled for delivery in 2026-2027.
- By region: Israel 37%, Europe 23%, North America 20%, Asia-Pacific 16%.
- By business: Land (munitions and artillery) grew +27%; radios/command (C4I) +17%; intelligence and electronic warfare +17%.
Full-year 2025: revenue of $7.94 billion (+16%), GAAP EPS of $11.39 (+59%). The business isn't just growing: its margins are expanding (earnings growing 3 times faster than sales).
Leadership: CEO Bezhalel (Butzi) Machlis (in the role since 2013). Headquarters in Haifa, Israel; ~20,500 employees; listed on Nasdaq and Tel Aviv. Dividend: it pays $1.00 per share per quarter (~0.5% annually at today's price) — it exists, but it's symbolic: the bet here is growth.
Why we like it
ESLT at $759.98 is paying a quality price for the end-to-end defense supplier best positioned for global rearmament. Specific reasons:
- Record backlog = nearly guaranteed revenue: $30.2 billion in already-signed orders (the first time above $30 billion in its history) equals nearly 4 years of work sold in advance. Few companies in the world have that visibility.
- European rearmament is only starting to be executed: NATO agreed in 2025 to raise spending toward 5% of GDP by 2035 — that's 10 years of growing budgets. Europe is already 23% of Elbit's sales, and its PULS rocket launcher was chosen by Germany, the Netherlands, Denmark, and Greece (Greece signed ~$750 million in April 2026, and in June 2026 Elbit announced another European contract of ~$1.4 billion).
- Growth with expanding margins: in Q1 2026 sales rose 15% but adjusted EPS rose 51% — when factories run at full capacity, each extra sale leaves more profit.
- It sells what is scarcest: munitions, rocket artillery, and drones — exactly the categories where the West discovered in Ukraine that its arsenals were empty, with products proven in real combat.
- Honesty about the price: the analyst consensus is 'Hold' with an average target of ~$868 (~+14% from today). This is not a hidden bargain — it's an exceptional business trading expensive (~51x forward earnings), and the thesis depends on order growth and margins continuing for several more years, not on the market 'discovering' the stock.
Key Risk
Risks:
- Demanding valuation — #1: after rising ~78% in a year, ESLT trades at ~61x trailing and ~51x forward earnings, far above its industry average (~30x). If a quarter disappoints or the rearmament cycle cools, the drop can be sharp: at these multiples there is no room for error.
- Geopolitical concentration: the business depends on countries continuing to spend on defense. A lasting peace deal in Ukraine or budget cuts would cool orders — what's good for the world isn't always good for this stock.
- Israeli environment risk: factories, talent, and 37% of sales are in Israel, an active conflict zone. Military escalations can disrupt production, supply chains, and personnel (reservists called up).
- ESG pressure and boycotts: some European funds and governments have excluded or pressured Israeli defense suppliers for political reasons; contracts can become politicized or canceled.
- Backlog execution: having $30.2 billion in orders is one thing; delivering them on time is another. Elbit is investing heavily in production capacity, and bottlenecks (components, labor) can delay deliveries and punish margins.
- Shekel/dollar: a large share of costs is in shekels while the company reports in dollars; a strong shekel squeezes margins.
This is educational and informational content, not financial advice. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Vectorial Data picked ESLT on 2026-07-01 at $759.98.
Full Research
Elbit Systems (ESLT) — Research Completo
Precio: $759.98 | P/E TTM: ~61x | P/E fwd: ~51x | Div Yield: ~0.5% | Market Cap: ~$35 mil millones USD
¿Qué es Elbit Systems?
La empresa de defensa más grande de Israel y un proveedor integral: drones (familia Hermes), municiones guiadas, sistemas electro-ópticos, guerra electrónica, artillería de cohetes (PULS) y cañones (ATMOS), sistemas terrestres/aéreos/navales (protección activa Iron Fist, cascos inteligentes de piloto), C4I y ciberdefensa. Sede en Haifa, Israel. ~20,500 empleados. Cotiza en Nasdaq (ADR/listado directo) y Tel Aviv.
El contexto: el mayor rearme en décadas
| Motor | Qué significa para Elbit |
|---|---|
| Guerra en Ucrania | Europa reconstruye arsenales; municiones y artillería de cohetes son lo más escaso |
| OTAN 5% del PIB para 2035 (cumbre de La Haya, jun 2025) | 10 años de presupuestos de defensa crecientes en Europa |
| Tensiones en Medio Oriente | Demanda israelí alta y productos probados en combate |
PULS (lanzacohetes, competidor del HIMARS) ya fue elegido por Alemania, Países Bajos, Dinamarca y Grecia, entre otros. Grecia firmó ~$750 millones en abril 2026; en junio 2026 Elbit anunció un contrato de ~$1.4 mil millones con un cliente europeo no revelado.
Último trimestre (Q1 2026, reportado 26 may 2026)
| Métrica | Q1 2026 |
|---|---|
| Ingresos | $2.19 mil millones (+15.4%) |
| Margen bruto (no-GAAP) | 25.5% |
| Margen operativo (no-GAAP) | 10.1% |
| Utilidad neta (no-GAAP) | $186.4 millones |
| EPS GAAP / no-GAAP | $3.34 / $3.87 (+51%, esperado: $3.35) |
| Backlog | $30.2 mil millones — récord histórico |
Backlog: 71% de fuera de Israel; ~49% se entrega en 2026-2027. Casi 4 años de ingresos ya vendidos.
Por región (Q1 2026): Israel 37.4% | Europa 23.4% | Norteamérica 19.8% | Asia-Pacífico 15.6%.
Por negocio (crecimiento YoY): Tierra (municiones/artillería) +27% | C4I y Cyber +17% | ISTAR y guerra electrónica +17% | Aeroespacial +2%.
Año completo 2025
| Métrica | FY2025 |
|---|---|
| Ingresos | $7.94 mil millones (+16%) |
| Utilidad neta GAAP | $534 millones (+66%) |
| EPS GAAP / no-GAAP | $11.39 (+59%) / $12.75 (+46%) |
| Backlog al cierre 2025 | $28.1 mil millones |
La utilidad crece ~3x más rápido que las ventas: márgenes en expansión al llenarse la capacidad de producción.
Liderazgo y dividendo
- CEO: Bezhalel (Butzi) Machlis, en el cargo desde 2013.
- Sede: Haifa, Israel. ~20,500 empleados.
- Dividendo: $1.00 por acción/trimestre (subió desde $0.75) = ~$4.00 anuales = ~0.5% al precio de hoy. Simbólico: la apuesta aquí es crecimiento, no ingreso. (Israel retiene ~16.8% de impuesto al dividendo.)
Valuación (con honestidad)
- La acción subió ~78% en el último año.
- ~61x utilidad histórica, ~51x futura — la industria de defensa promedia ~30x futura. ESLT cotiza con premio importante.
- El premio se justifica solo si el crecimiento de pedidos y la expansión de márgenes continúan varios años.
Anchor Fact
Elbit ya tiene pedidos firmados por $30.2 mil millones — nunca en sus más de 55 años de historia había tenido tantos. Es como una fábrica que ya vendió casi 4 años completos de trabajo por adelantado, y 7 de cada 10 de esos pedidos vienen de fuera de Israel, con Europa rearmándose como motor.
Top 6 Risks
- Valuación exigente — ~61x TTM / ~51x fwd tras +78% en un año; sin margen de error
- Concentración geopolítica — vive del ciclo de rearme; paz duradera o recortes = pedidos fríos
- Entorno israelí — fábricas, talento y 37% de ventas en zona de conflicto activo
- Presión ESG/boicots — fondos y gobiernos europeos pueden politizar contratos
- Ejecución del backlog — capacidad de producción y cuellos de botella pueden retrasar entregas
- Shekel/USD — costos en shekels vs. reporte en dólares aprieta márgenes
Analyst Consensus
- Rating: Hold (mantener) — 6 analistas (1 Buy, 4 Hold, 1 Sell según TipRanks)
- Target promedio: ~$868.50 (~+14.3% desde $759.98); mediana TipRanks ~$882, rango $518-$1,115
- Lectura honesta: los analistas reconocen el negocio excepcional pero ven la acción cara tras el rally; el target implica upside moderado, no espectacular.
Tesis en una línea
El proveedor integral de defensa mejor posicionado ante el mayor rearme en décadas, con casi 4 años de trabajo ya vendido por adelantado — pagando precio de calidad, no de ganga.
Research fecha: 1 Jul 2026 | Próxima revisión: Ene 2027
Esto no es asesoría financiera.
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The author may hold positions in the securities discussed.
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