MARA — MARA Holdings, Inc.
$9.40
Target: $18.00 (+91.4%)
P/E Ratio
—
P/E Forward
—
Dividend
—
Market Cap
$3.5B
EPS
$-9.39
Consensus
Buy
What they do
MARA Holdings (Nasdaq: MARA, formerly Marathon Digital) is the largest publicly traded Bitcoin miner and the world's 4th-largest corporate holder of Bitcoin.
What it does today:
**
- Mine Bitcoin.** It runs farms of specialized servers (in the US and abroad) that compete to validate Bitcoin transactions in exchange for new bitcoins. It's a pure commodity business: revenue depends on the bitcoin price, energy costs and global competition (the 'hashrate').
**
- Bitcoin treasury. It holds 35,577 BTC** (~$2.1 billion at ~$58,500/BTC) — though the 'never sell' model is over: in the first half of 2026 it sold 23,093 BTC (~$1.63 billion) to pay down debt and fund infrastructure, and pledged 18,750 BTC as collateral for a $600 million loan.
**
- The AI/HPC pivot. Its sites have something extremely scarce: large-scale contracted power access**. It's converting them into high-performance computing (HPC) centers for AI, including a JV with Starwood to develop sites. Still a promise: no major contract signed yet.
Leadership: CEO Fred Thiel. HQ in Hallandale Beach, Florida; ~266 employees.
Why we like it
MARA at $9.40 is an extreme-value bet with two triggers — and it must be understood as exactly that. The reasons, at their true size:
- Balance-sheet arithmetic. Market cap ~$3.5 billion; the Bitcoin on the balance sheet alone is worth ~$2.1 billion. You're paying ~$1.4 billion for: the largest listed miner, its server farms, and its sites with large-scale contracted power.
- Power is the scarce asset of the AI boom. AI data centers can't find places to plug in — 'power-ready' sites are gold. MARA has them and is converting them (Starwood JV). If ONE major HPC contract lands, the stock re-rates.
- Leverage to Bitcoin. At ~$58,500, Bitcoin is far from its highs. If it rebounds, MARA rises with leverage: its treasury re-rates AND its mining returns to positive margins — the classic double effect of miners.
- The pessimism is already priced in. -60% from the year's high, near the low ($6.66), with Morgan Stanley at $6. The 11-analyst average sees ~$18 (+91%) — the huge dispersion IS the information: nobody knows, which is why it's cheap against the balance sheet.
- A small position by design. It's the portfolio's most speculative buy; the model invests $50 like in every pick — the uniform size is the risk control.
Key Risk
Risks — read ALL of them before copying this buy:
- It loses money TODAY: last quarter revenue -27% ($174.9M vs $203.7M expected) and a $1.60/share loss when a profit was expected; efficiency worsened (compute power +22.5% but bitcoin output only +2.7%).
- Total dependence on Bitcoin: at ~$58,500 and far from highs; if it falls further, the treasury is worth less, mining loses more, and the balance-sheet 'floor' drops — pledged collateral can require more guarantees.
- The treasury is no longer untouchable: it sold 23,093 BTC in 6 months and pledged 18,750 more — the 'hodl' optionality was spent paying debt.
- The AI pivot is a promise: zero major contracts signed; competitors (Core Scientific, Iris, Riot) run the same race with more progress.
- Dilution and debt: a long history of issuing shares to fund itself; the $600M loan adds leverage against volatile collateral.
- The 2028 halving: every 4 years the mining reward is cut in half — the structural clock runs against it. No dividend: no cushion whatsoever.
This is educational and informational content, not financial advice. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Vectorial Data picked MARA on 2026-08-18 at $9.40.
Full Research
MARA Holdings (MARA) — Research Completo
Precio: $9.40 | P/E: N/A (pierde dinero) | Div: no paga | Market Cap: ~$3.5 mil millones
⚠️ Aviso primero
Esta es la posición más especulativa del portafolio. MARA pierde dinero, depende del precio de Bitcoin y su pivote a IA todavía no genera ingresos. La tesis es de valor de balance + opcionalidad, no de flujos. Posición estándar de $50, como todas — el tamaño ES el control de riesgo.
¿Qué es MARA?
El minero de Bitcoin más grande en bolsa (Nasdaq, antes Marathon Digital) y 4º tenedor corporativo de BTC del mundo. CEO Fred Thiel; HQ Hallandale Beach, Florida; ~266 empleados.
La aritmética que sostiene el pick
| Concepto | Valor |
|---|---|
| Market cap (a $9.40) | ~$3,500 M |
| Bitcoin en balance (35,577 BTC × ~$58,500) | ~$2,100 M |
| → Valor implícito del negocio operativo | ~$1,400 M |
Por ~$1,400 M te llevas: las granjas de minado más grandes en bolsa + sitios con acceso a energía a gran escala (el cuello de botella real del boom de IA) + la opción del pivote HPC/IA (JV con Starwood).
Q2 2026 — los números malos, sin maquillar
- Ingresos $174.9 M (-27% interanual), por debajo de los $203.7 M esperados.
- Pérdida ajustada de $1.60/acción (se esperaba +$0.26).
- Eficiencia en deterioro: hashrate energizado +22.5%, producción de BTC solo +2.7%.
El tesoro — y cómo cambió
- 35,577 BTC (~$2,100 M) al cierre de junio; 4,742 prestados a terceros y 4,528 en garantía → ~26,300 sin restricciones.
- Vendió 23,093 BTC (~$1,630 M) en el primer semestre de 2026 para pagar deuda y financiar infraestructura — fin del modelo 'nunca vender'.
- En agosto pignoró 18,750 BTC en dos líneas de crédito por $600 M.
El pivote a IA/HPC
Los sitios de minado tienen contratos de energía a gran escala — exactamente lo que los centros de IA no consiguen. MARA los está reconvirtiendo (JV con Starwood; Morgan Stanley espera al menos un lease de HPC y dos de sitios hacia fin de año). Hoy: promesa sin contrato firmado. Riot, Core Scientific e Iris corren la misma carrera.
Analistas — la dispersión es el mensaje
| Casa | Target |
|---|---|
| Promedio (11 analistas) | ~$18 (+91%) |
| Clear Street | $10 (Hold) |
| Morgan Stanley | $6 — debajo del precio actual |
Riesgos (resumen)
- Pierde dinero hoy; eficiencia en deterioro.
- Palanca total a Bitcoin (~$58,500) — para bien y para mal.
- Tesoro ya no intocable: ventas masivas + BTC pignorado.
- Pivote IA sin ingresos aún; competencia adelantada.
- Dilución histórica + $600 M de deuda con colateral volátil.
- Halving 2028.
Fuentes
- Q2 2026 shareholder letter (SEC 8-K, ago 2026); Benzinga, Blockspace
- Tesoro/ventas BTC: crypto.news, bitcointreasuries.net (ago 2026)
- Targets: Morgan Stanley/Clear Street vía prensa (ago 2026); promedio Yahoo Finance
- Precio: Yahoo Finance (18 ago 2026, open $9.40)
This is not financial advice. Consult a certified financial advisor.
The author may hold positions in the securities discussed.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.