MDT — Medtronic plc
Price when we picked it (Aug 31, 2026)
$90.75
Target: $98.84 (+8.9%)
P/E Ratio
24.3
P/E Forward
14.1
Dividend
3.2%
Market Cap
$115.8B
EPS
$3.73
Consensus
Buy
What they do
Medtronic is the largest pure-play medical device maker on the planet. If a heart needs a pacemaker, a catheter valve (TAVR) or an ablation to fix an arrhythmia, the equipment is very likely theirs. Four businesses (fiscal 2026, $36.4 billion): Cardiovascular $13.98 billion (~38%), Neuroscience $10.3 billion (~28% — spine, neurostimulators, cranial navigation), Medical Surgical $8.9 billion (~24% — staplers, surgical energy, monitoring) and Diabetes $3.1 billion (~9% — MiniMed pumps).
Two 2026 catalysts:
- pulsed-field ablation (PFA) — the new way to fix atrial fibrillation without burning tissue — grew ~50% for the year with its PulseSelect and Affera catheters;
- the Hugo surgical robot received FDA clearance (Dec 2025) and performed its first US commercial case at Cleveland Clinic (Feb 2026), challenging Intuitive Surgical's monopoly.
The Diabetes unit is being separated: MiniMed went public (Nasdaq: MMED, March 2026) and the full split-off is expected by the end of 2026 — leaving a more focused, higher-margin Medtronic. Domiciled in Ireland (Galway); operations in Minneapolis; CEO Geoff Martha.
Why we like it
Three reasons.
- IT'S GROWING AGAIN: fiscal 2026 was its best revenue growth in a decade ($36.4 billion, +8.4%; +5.8% organic) and the latest quarter beat expectations (+9.9%); fiscal 2027 guidance calls for 6.75–7.25% organic and adjusted earnings of $5.90–6.00 (+7–8%). The stock rose ~7% on the report.
- TWO PRODUCTS TAKING OFF: cardiac ablation grew ~50% for the year (and Medtronic is investing to expand Affera manufacturing on physician demand) and the Hugo robot is just starting its US commercial life — the robotic surgery market has been dominated by a single player for 20 years.
- RELIABLE INCOME, CHEAP: 3.2% a year with 49 consecutive increases and ~$5.4 billion of free cash flow covering the payout; at $90.75 it trades at 14.1x expected earnings — well below the sector — with a Buy consensus from 25 analysts and a ~$98.84 target (+9%). The MiniMed separation (late 2026) leaves a more focused, higher-margin Medtronic.
Key Risk
#1: competition in its star product. In pulsed-field ablation, Boston Scientific (Farapulse) dominates — more than 500,000 patients treated and ~80% of the US market — and J&J and Abbott are pushing too; Medtronic's ~50% growth starts from a smaller base. Others:
- Hugo vs Intuitive: the robot is only cleared for urology in the US and faces a rival with two decades of installed advantage;
- tariffs: the company estimates a ~$250 million net hit in fiscal 2027;
- earnings grow less than sales: in fiscal 2026 adjusted earnings rose just ~0.7% and the latest dividend increase was token-sized (~1.4%) — payout ~76%;
- separation execution for MiniMed: it loses its fastest-growing unit (~13%);
- it reports its fiscal 2027 first quarter on September 1 — results immediately ahead.
This is educational and informational content, not financial advice. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Vectorial Data picked MDT on Aug 31, 2026 at $90.75.
Full Research
What it does. Medtronic plc (NYSE: MDT; domiciled in Galway, Ireland; operations in Minneapolis; ~95,000 employees; CEO Geoff Martha) is the world's largest pure-play medical device maker. Segments (fiscal 2026, ended April 24, 2026; revenue $36.4 billion): Cardiovascular $13.98 billion (38%) — pacemakers, defibrillators, TAVR valves, stents and cardiac ablation; Neuroscience $10.3 billion (28%) — spine, neurostimulators, navigation; Medical Surgical $8.9 billion (24%) — staplers, energy, monitoring; Diabetes $3.1 billion (9%) — MiniMed pumps, being separated.
Results. Fiscal 2026: revenue $36.4 billion, +8.4% reported / +5.8% organic — the strongest growth in 10 years; adjusted earnings per share $5.53. Fourth quarter (June 3, 2026): $9.81 billion (+9.9% / +6.6% organic, ~1.5% above consensus), adjusted EPS $1.55 vs $1.54 expected; the stock rose ~7%. Fiscal 2027 guidance: organic 6.75–7.25%, adjusted EPS $5.90–6.00 (+6.7–8.5%). It reports fiscal 2027 Q1 on September 1, 2026 (consensus ~$1.39, +9.5%).
Catalysts. (1) Pulsed-field ablation (PFA): its cardiac ablation business grew ~50% in fiscal 2026 with PulseSelect and Affera/Sphere-9; in June it announced investment to expand Affera manufacturing capacity. (2) Hugo robot: FDA clearance for urology on December 3, 2025; first US commercial case on February 17, 2026 (Cleveland Clinic); more indications filed. (3) Diabetes separation: MiniMed went public on March 6, 2026 (Nasdaq: MMED; IPO at $20, up to $644 million; CEO Que Dallara); full split-off expected by the end of 2026. Diabetes grew 12.9% in fiscal 2026.
Shareholder returns. Quarterly dividend $0.72 ($2.88 a year, ~3.2%): 49th consecutive annual increase — one year from Dividend King status; fiscal 2026 paid ~$3.6 billion in dividends ($4.2 billion returned in total) with ~$5.4 billion of free cash flow. Buybacks: 10 million shares in fiscal 2026 at an average of $93.25; ~$1.2 billion left of the $5 billion authorization.
Stock. $90.75 at the open (August 31, 2026); 52-week range $73.31–$106.33; market cap ~$115.8 billion; P/E 24.3x TTM / 14.1x forward. Buy consensus (25 analysts), average target ~$98.84 (+9%; range $78–121).
Risks. (1) PFA competition: Boston Scientific (Farapulse) leads with >500,000 patients and ~80% of US AF ablation; J&J and Abbott compete. (2) Hugo vs Intuitive Surgical: cleared only for urology. (3) Tariffs: ~$250 million estimated net impact in fiscal 2027. (4) Weak earnings leverage: fiscal 2026 sales +8.4% but adjusted earnings +0.7%; recent token dividend increases (payout ~76%). (5) MiniMed split-off execution (structure and timing not final) and loss of its fastest-growing unit. (6) Fiscal 2027 Q1 results on September 1, 2026.
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