Why did Vectorial Data pick NPNYY?

Three reasons. (1) THE CYCLE IS ALREADY IN THE TILL, NOT IN A PROMISE: the April–June quarter (reported August 5, 2026) brought revenue of ¥727.6 billion (+21%), operating profit ¥57.7 billion (+70%) and net profit ¥67.1 billion (+33%); and in the same announcement the company raised its full-year recurring profit target by 35% (from ¥185.0 billion to ¥250.0 billion) and its planned dividend by 20% (from ¥200 to ¥240 per share). This isn't an analyst projection: it's the company itself putting more profit and more dividend in writing. (2) FIVE BUSINESSES, NOT ONE: Energy earned ¥23.9 billion (+¥11.8 billion) with VLCCs at $425,449 a day; Dry Bulk swung from a ¥2.7 billion loss to a ¥19.4 billion profit with the Baltic Dry Index at 2,756 (versus 1,464); the container business (38% of ONE) raised its full-year guidance to $900 million from $300 million; and the car-carrier business, even bruised by the reroutings, is still guided to ¥81.0 billion. When one market cools, another compensates — which is why last fiscal year, on normal rates, it still earned ¥211.7 billion. (3) CHEAP EVEN NEAR ITS HIGHS: at $9.52 the ADR costs ~12.4 times the profit the company itself forecasts for this fiscal year, with guided ROE of 7.7% (up from 6.4%), and a medium-term plan committing ¥480 billion to share buybacks and ¥400 billion to dividends. On top of that it has just bought NS United Kaiun for ¥156.8 billion, which gives it one of the world's largest capesize fleets and Nippon Steel's raw-materials customer base — cargo that moves rain or shine.

What are the risks of investing in NPNYY?

#1: the extraordinary profit comes from an emergency that will end. The engine is the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and the company itself assumes in its guidance that it ends in late September 2026: it forecasts VLCCs falling from $387,725 a day in the first fiscal half to $147,500 in the second. If the market normalizes sooner or harder, profit falls with it. Others: (2) the dividend goes up and down: the policy is to pay out 40% of profit, so it paid ¥325 per share in fiscal 2024, ¥230 in fiscal 2025 (−29%) and guides to ¥240 in fiscal 2026 — this is not a company that raises its dividend every year; (3) Wall Street thinks it's expensive: a Hold consensus from 11 analysts with a ¥6,333 price target (~$8.18 per ADR), 14% below our purchase price, and the stock sits near its 52-week high; (4) two businesses are already hurting: Automotive earned ¥12.0 billion less on reroutings, port congestion and costlier fuel, and Logistics lost ¥2.4 billion in the quarter (with goodwill amortization from the European healthcare logistics acquisition) and is guided to a full-year loss; (5) currency and fuel: every ¥1 move in the yen against the dollar is worth ~¥1.84 billion of profit over the year's final nine months, and bunker fuel rose $144.11 to $722.71 per tonne; (6) ONE is faltering: the container partner earned only $31 million in the quarter versus $86 million a year earlier, and the global fleet grew by more than 300,000 TEU in three months to over 34 million — that capacity comes back to the market once Hormuz normalizes; (7) it's an OTC-market ADR: 5 ADRs = 1 share, less liquidity than an NYSE listing, dividends converted from yen to dollars minus the depositary fee, and Japanese withholding tax.

Does NPNYY pay dividends?

Yes. Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha pays a dividend of about 2.78% per year.

How can I buy NPNYY with little money?

You can buy fractional shares of NPNYY starting from a few dollars with any broker that offers fractional shares. The Vectorial Data method: invest the same amount in every pick, every time.

When was this NPNYY analysis last updated?

The NPNYY analysis was last updated on Invalid Date.

Stocks/NPNYY

NPNYY — Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha

IndustrialsAsiaJapanBlockchain certified

$9.52

Target: $8.18 (-14.1%)

P/E Ratio

14.3

P/E Forward

12.4

Dividend

2.78%

Market Cap

$19.1B

EPS

$0.66

Consensus

Hold

What they do

Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha — NYK Line — (headquarters in Marunouchi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo; founded September 29, 1885; CEO Takaya Soga; Chairman Hitoshi Nagasawa; 39,830 consolidated employees as of March 31, 2026) is Japan's largest shipping line and one of the world's most diversified logistics groups. Five businesses: Liner & Logistics (containers through its 38% of Ocean Network Express — ONE, created with MOL and K Line, operating out of Singapore, 284 vessels and 2.26 million TEU as of June 30, 2026 — plus air, ocean and land freight forwarding, warehousing and agency services), Automotive (car carriers: 1.11 million units in the quarter), Dry Bulk, Energy (VLCC supertankers, VLGC and LNG carriers, FPSO platforms) and Others (air cargo, real estate and cruises — in September 2026 it named the cruise ship AMANE, entering service in spring 2027).

A key detail for investors: what you buy in the US is an OTC-market ADR, and 5 ADRs equal 1 ordinary share (depositary The Bank of New York Mellon; CUSIP 654633304). In Tokyo the share closed at ¥7,374, with 403.6 million shares and a market cap of ~¥2,980 billion (~$19.1 billion). Every per-share figure the company publishes — earnings, dividend — is per ordinary share: divide by 5 for the ADR.

Japan's fiscal year runs from April to March, so its "first quarter of fiscal 2026" is April–June 2026. NYK is in a buying streak: on July 21, 2026 it closed the acquisition of Saga Welco AS (open-hatch vessels), on July 30 it joined the investment in MidOcean Energy (EIG), on July 31 it launched a tender offer for NS United Kaiun (~¥156.8 billion) and on September 1 it agreed a joint structure with Stolt-Nielsen for Avenir LNG.

Why we like it

Three reasons.

THE CYCLE IS ALREADY IN THE TILL, NOT IN A PROMISE: the April–June quarter (reported August 5, 2026) brought revenue of ¥727.6 billion (+21%), operating profit ¥57.7 billion (+70%) and net profit ¥67.1 billion (+33%); and in the same announcement the company raised its full-year recurring profit target by 35% (from ¥185.0 billion to ¥250.0 billion) and its planned dividend by 20% (from ¥200 to ¥240 per share). This isn't an analyst projection: it's the company itself putting more profit and more dividend in writing.
FIVE BUSINESSES, NOT ONE: Energy earned ¥23.9 billion (+¥11.8 billion) with VLCCs at $425,449 a day; Dry Bulk swung from a ¥2.7 billion loss to a ¥19.4 billion profit with the Baltic Dry Index at 2,756 (versus 1,464); the container business (38% of ONE) raised its full-year guidance to $900 million from $300 million; and the car-carrier business, even bruised by the reroutings, is still guided to ¥81.0 billion. When one market cools, another compensates — which is why last fiscal year, on normal rates, it still earned ¥211.7 billion.
CHEAP EVEN NEAR ITS HIGHS: at $9.52 the ADR costs ~12.4 times the profit the company itself forecasts for this fiscal year, with guided ROE of 7.7% (up from 6.4%), and a medium-term plan committing ¥480 billion to share buybacks and ¥400 billion to dividends. On top of that it has just bought NS United Kaiun for ¥156.8 billion, which gives it one of the world's largest capesize fleets and Nippon Steel's raw-materials customer base — cargo that moves rain or shine.

Key Risk

#1: the extraordinary profit comes from an emergency that will end. The engine is the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and the company itself assumes in its guidance that it ends in late September 2026: it forecasts VLCCs falling from $387,725 a day in the first fiscal half to $147,500 in the second. If the market normalizes sooner or harder, profit falls with it. Others:

the dividend goes up and down: the policy is to pay out 40% of profit, so it paid ¥325 per share in fiscal 2024, ¥230 in fiscal 2025 (−29%) and guides to ¥240 in fiscal 2026 — this is not a company that raises its dividend every year;
Wall Street thinks it's expensive: a Hold consensus from 11 analysts with a ¥6,333 price target (~$8.18 per ADR), 14% below our purchase price, and the stock sits near its 52-week high;
two businesses are already hurting: Automotive earned ¥12.0 billion less on reroutings, port congestion and costlier fuel, and Logistics lost ¥2.4 billion in the quarter (with goodwill amortization from the European healthcare logistics acquisition) and is guided to a full-year loss;
currency and fuel: every ¥1 move in the yen against the dollar is worth ~¥1.84 billion of profit over the year's final nine months, and bunker fuel rose $144.11 to $722.71 per tonne;
ONE is faltering: the container partner earned only $31 million in the quarter versus $86 million a year earlier, and the global fleet grew by more than 300,000 TEU in three months to over 34 million — that capacity comes back to the market once Hormuz normalizes;
it's an OTC-market ADR: 5 ADRs = 1 share, less liquidity than an NYSE listing, dividends converted from yen to dollars minus the depositary fee, and Japanese withholding tax.

This is educational and informational content, not financial advice. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Vectorial Data picked NPNYY on 2026-09-16 at $9.52.

Last updated: Invalid Date

Dividends received by the Vectorial portfolio

NPNYY has not paid a dividend to the portfolio yet.

Full Research

Qué hace. Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha — NYK Line — (OTC: NPNYY; Tokio: 9101; sede en 3-2, Marunouchi 2-chome, Chiyoda-ku, Tokio; fundada el 29 de septiembre de 1885; CEO y director representante Takaya Soga; presidente del consejo Hitoshi Nagasawa; 39,830 empleados consolidados y 1,370 en la matriz al 31 de marzo de 2026; capital pagado ¥144,320 millones) es la naviera más grande de Japón. Desde el primer trimestre fiscal 2026 reporta cinco segmentos: Liner & Logistics (contenedores vía su 38% de Ocean Network Express — ONE, constituida con MOL y K Line, que tienen 31% cada uno, con operación en Singapur, 284 buques y 2,260,498 TEU al 30 de junio de 2026 — más forwarding aéreo y marítimo, logística por contrato y almacenes), Automotive, Dry Bulk, Energy (VLCC, VLGC, LNG, FPSO) y Otros (carga aérea, bienes raíces, cruceros). Nota de estructura: desde este trimestre el negocio de carga aérea se movió de Liner & Logistics a Otros, y el carbón térmico de Energy a Dry Bulk; las cifras de 2025 están reclasificadas.

El ADR. 5 ADR equivalen a 1 acción ordinaria (depositario The Bank of New York Mellon; CUSIP 654633304; mercado OTC de EE.UU.). En Tokio la acción cerró en ¥7,374 con 403.6 millones de acciones en circulación — capitalización ~¥2,980,000 millones (~$19,100 millones). Toda cifra por acción publicada por la empresa es por acción ordinaria; para el ADR se divide entre 5.

Resultados (primer trimestre del año fiscal 2026 — abril a junio —, publicados el 5 de agosto de 2026). Ingresos ¥727,600 millones (+¥126,700 millones, +21%); utilidad operativa ¥57,700 millones (+¥23,700, +70%); utilidad recurrente ¥71,200 millones (+¥15,200, +27%); utilidad neta atribuible a la matriz ¥67,100 millones (+¥16,800, +33%). Utilidad recurrente por segmento: Energy ¥23,900 millones (+¥11,800), Dry Bulk ¥19,400 millones (+¥22,200; venía de una pérdida de ¥2,700 millones), Automotive ¥16,800 millones (−¥12,000), Liner Trade ¥10,000 millones (−¥2,000), Logistics −¥2,400 millones (−¥5,600) y Otros ¥4,500 millones (+¥1,500). Tipo de cambio del trimestre ¥159.89/$ (el yen se depreció ¥14.57 interanual) y combustible de barco $722.71 por tonelada (+$144.11). Descomposición del +¥15,200 millones de utilidad recurrente: tipo de cambio +¥7,700, mercado y otros efectos +¥5,700, ganancias cambiarias +¥4,500, combustible −¥2,700.

Guía del año fiscal 2026 (subida el 5 de agosto). Ingresos ¥2,881,000 millones (+¥276,000 sobre la guía previa; +19% vs el año anterior); utilidad operativa ¥185,000 millones (+¥40,000); utilidad recurrente ¥250,000 millones (+¥65,000 sobre la guía previa de ¥185,000 — un salto de 35% — y +18% vs ¥211,100 millones); utilidad neta ¥240,000 millones (+¥45,000; +13% vs ¥211,700 millones). ROE prevista 7.7% (antes 6.4%). Por segmento: Liner Trade ¥83,000 millones (+¥34,000 vs guía previa), Automotive ¥81,000 (−¥3,000), Energy ¥56,000 (+¥8,000), Dry Bulk ¥36,000 (+¥22,000), Logistics −¥1,000 (−¥1,000). Supuestos explícitos: la tensión en Medio Oriente y el cierre del Estrecho de Ormuz se mantienen hasta fines de septiembre de 2026, y el desvío por el Cabo de Buena Esperanza (evitando el Canal de Suez) continúa todo el año fiscal. Sensibilidad para los nueve meses restantes: cada ¥1 de depreciación frente al dólar suma ~¥1,840 millones de utilidad recurrente; cada $10 por tonelada menos de combustible suma ~¥580 millones. Base del año fiscal 2025 (cerrado en marzo de 2026): ingresos ¥2,423,600 millones, utilidad operativa ¥138,600 millones, recurrente ¥211,100 millones, neta ¥211,700 millones.

Los mercados que mueven la utilidad. VLCC (superpetrolero, spot time charter Golfo Pérsico–Lejano Oriente): $425,449 al día en el trimestre contra $41,414 un año antes; la empresa proyecta $387,725 en el primer semestre fiscal y $147,500 en el segundo ($267,612 en el año, contra $102,266 el año pasado y una previsión inicial de $130,625). VLGC (gas licuado de petróleo): $166,419 al día contra $44,864. Baltic Dry Index: 2,756 contra 1,464; Capesize $39,938 al día contra $22,189; previsión BDI del año 2,389 (antes 1,978). Autos transportados: 1.11 millones de unidades en el trimestre (−2%), previsión anual 4.40 millones (contra 4.35 millones). Forwarding: volumen marítimo 184,000 TEU (+16%) y aéreo 158,000 toneladas (+9%). ONE (38% de NYK) facturó $4,539 millones en el trimestre con EBITDA de $707 millones y utilidad de $31 millones (contra $86 millones un año antes), flete promedio $1,300 por TEU y 3,257 miles de TEU movidos; subió su guía anual a $900 millones desde $300 millones, asumiendo que las condiciones vuelvan a la normalidad en octubre.

Dividendo y capital. Política declarada: repartir el 40% de la utilidad consolidada. Previsión del año fiscal 2026: ¥120 de dividendo interino + ¥120 de cierre = ¥240 por acción ordinaria, es decir ¥20 más en cada pago que la previsión anterior (¥200). Eso equivale a ¥48 por ADR (~$0.31, ~3.2% sobre $9.52). Historial reciente por acción ordinaria: año fiscal 2024 ¥325 (¥130 + ¥195); año fiscal 2025 ¥230 (¥115 + ¥115). Próxima fecha ex-dividendo: 29 de septiembre de 2026 (¥120, con pago el 3 de diciembre de 2026). En el plan de mediano plazo la empresa compromete ¥480,000 millones en recompra de acciones y ¥400,000 millones en dividendos ordinarios, con flujo de inversión de ¥1,620,000 millones (+¥140,000 tras la operación de NS United). Deuda con intereses prevista ¥1,841,000 millones (¥3,180,000 millones incluyendo pasivos por fletamento).

Compras de 2026. El 31 de julio de 2026 anunció una oferta pública de adquisición por NS United Kaiun a ¥10,600 por acción (~¥156,800 millones en total, incluyendo una recompra de la propia NS United a ¥7,676 por acción para reducir la participación de Nippon Steel). La oferta arranca entre finales de noviembre y finales de diciembre de 2026 y la consolidación de acciones queda efectiva a mediados de abril de 2027; NYK y Nippon Steel quedarían como únicos accionistas. NS United (fundada el 1 de abril de 1950, sede en Otemachi, Tokio; 669 empleados consolidados; 130 buques oceánicos y 81 de cabotaje; ingresos de ¥229,800 millones en el año a marzo de 2026) aporta clientes de materias primas siderúrgicas y uno de los mayores negocios de cabotaje de Japón. Otros movimientos del año: adquisición cerrada de Saga Welco AS el 21 de julio, inversión en MidOcean Energy (EIG) el 30 de julio, control total de YJK Solutions el 31 de agosto y estructura conjunta con Stolt-Nielsen para Avenir LNG el 1 de septiembre.

Acción. $9.52 de apertura (16 de septiembre de 2026) en el mercado OTC de EE.UU.; rango de 52 semanas del ADR $6.05–$9.69 (en Tokio ¥4,793–¥7,465) — cotiza prácticamente en máximo. Capitalización ~$19,100 millones; utilidad por ADR de los últimos doce meses $0.66; P/E ~14.3x sobre esa utilidad y ~12.4x sobre la utilidad que la propia empresa proyecta para el año fiscal (¥240,000 millones ÷ 403.6 millones de acciones ≈ ¥595 por acción ≈ ¥119 por ADR). Consenso de 11 analistas sobre la acción de Tokio: Hold, con precio objetivo promedio de ¥6,333 — equivalente a ~$8.18 por ADR, 14% por debajo del precio de compra.

Riesgos. (1) El motor es una emergencia geopolítica: la guía asume que el cierre del Estrecho de Ormuz termina a fines de septiembre de 2026 y que el VLCC baja de $387,725 a $147,500 al día en el segundo semestre fiscal. (2) El dividendo sigue a la utilidad (40% de payout): ¥325 → ¥230 → ¥240 previsto. (3) Valuación según el consenso: Hold con target ¥6,333 (−14%) y acción cerca de máximos de 52 semanas. (4) Automotive (−¥12,000 millones interanual por desvíos, congestión y combustible) y Logistics (pérdida de ¥2,400 millones en el trimestre, guía anual en pérdida). (5) Sensibilidad a tipo de cambio (~¥1,840 millones por cada ¥1) y a combustible ($722.71 por tonelada, +$144.11). (6) ONE ganó solo $31 millones en el trimestre y la flota mundial de contenedores superó los 34 millones de TEU tras sumar más de 300,000 TEU en tres meses. (7) Riesgo de ejecución de M&A: ¥156,800 millones por NS United y ~¥900,000 millones de flujo de inversión previsto en el año. (8) Formato ADR: 5 ADR = 1 acción, mercado OTC con menos liquidez, conversión de yenes a dólares, comisión del depositario y retención fiscal japonesa.

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Researched: 9/16/2026Updated: 9/16/2026Next review: 3/16/2027

This is not financial advice. Consult a certified financial advisor.

The author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.