NTR — Nutrien Ltd.
$75.74
Target: $66.50 (-12%)
P/E Ratio
16.0
P/E Forward
15.7
Dividend
2.9%
Market Cap
$36B
EPS
$3.72
Consensus
Hold
What they do
Nutrien Ltd. (NYSE and TSX: NTR; headquartered in Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada; ~24,700 employees; CEO Ken Seitz, in the role since August 2022 after serving as interim CEO from January 2022; CFO Mark Thompson) was born on January 1, 2018 from the merger of PotashCorp and Agrium. It is the world's largest potash producer and one of the largest sellers of farm inputs directly to farmers.
It has four businesses (adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization for the first half of 2026):
- Stores (Retail — Nutrien Ag Solutions): $1,239 million (+4%). A network of branches in North America, Australia and South America selling fertilizer, crop protection chemicals, seed, agronomy services and credit (Nutrien Financial). Its own-brand products brought in $652 million of margin in the second quarter (+16%).
- Potash: $1,236 million (+15%). Six mines in Saskatchewan; it sells outside North America through Canpotex. In the second quarter Latin America was 47% of those sales, other Asian countries 23%, China 11% and India 4%.
- Nitrogen (ammonia, urea and solutions): $1,117 million (+4%). Its Trinidad plant went through a controlled shutdown on October 23, 2025 and the New Madrid plant stopped producing at the end of 2025; today it produces mostly in North America, where gas is cheap.
- Phosphate: $80 million (−48%), hit by expensive sulfur.
In 2026 it is simplifying: since the fourth quarter of 2024 it has sold ~$1,000 million in non-core assets, and this year it decides what to do with phosphate, the Trinidad plant and the Brazilian stores. It reports in US dollars and declares its dividend in US dollars (Canadian shareholders are paid in Canadian dollars).
Why we like it
Three reasons to add.
- POTASH IS DOING BETTER THAN WHEN WE BOUGHT: in the first half of 2026 it sold 7.45 million tonnes, a record, at an average net price of $266 per tonne versus $235 a year earlier (+13%); it produced 4.00 million tonnes in the second quarter (+13%) with a controllable cost of just $55 per tonne, and raised its target for the year to 14.2–14.8 million tonnes. The company expects the world to buy 74–77 million tonnes in 2026, in line with what is consumed.
- THE GULF WAR RAISED ITS PRICE WITHOUT RAISING ITS COST: ~35% of the world's exported urea passes through the Strait of Hormuz (CSIS). In the second quarter Nutrien sold its urea at $620 per tonne (+22%) and its ammonia at $609 (+49%) — even though part of those sales was agreed before the war —, while gas for its plants cost $2.10 versus $3.31 a year earlier. The company says urea strengthened in the third quarter and that the market will stay tight for the rest of the year.
- IT PAYS YOU AND BUYS BACK SHARES WHILE IT TIDIES UP: a $0.55 quarterly dividend in US dollars (2.91% a year); in the first half it returned $848 million between dividends and buybacks (buybacks +26%), and it kept buying back in July and August at ~$67 per share. It cut what it will spend on projects to $1,950–2,050 million, and its own-brand products in the stores earn more every quarter. At $75.49 it trades at ~15 times its profit.
Key Risk
The #1: part of the profit comes from an emergency that can end. If the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal, the urea and ammonia it sells at high prices today can fall quickly; the company itself cites 'trade flow disruptions' and 'elevated energy prices' as market drivers. Others:
- phosphate barely makes money: sulfur (~45% of world trade affected by the conflict, according to CSIS) got more expensive and the segment's adjusted profit fell to $23 million in the quarter versus $92 million (−75%);
- Wall Street sees little room: Buy consensus, but the average target is $76.90, just +1.9% above the purchase price; National Bank cut it to Hold on August 25 and KeyBanc started coverage at Hold on September 10;
- the stock is volatile: it touched $85.36 on March 13, closed at ~$63 at the end of June and today is at $75.49; the second quarter came in below expectations ($2.61 versus $2.70) and it reports again on November 4;
- less nitrogen and pending decisions: it sold 25% fewer tonnes of nitrogen in the quarter (Trinidad shut, maintenance at Carseland) and still has to decide the future of phosphate, Trinidad and the Brazilian stores;
- higher mining taxes in Saskatchewan ($110 million in the quarter versus $97 million) and fuel costs at the stores;
- Canadian withholding tax: Canada withholds 25% of dividends paid to foreigners, normally reduced to 15% if your country has a tax treaty with Canada (for example the US or Mexico).
This is educational and informational content, not financial advice. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Vectorial Data picked NTR on 2026-05-18 at $75.74.
This is not financial advice. Consult a certified financial advisor.
The author may hold positions in the securities discussed.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.