Why did Vectorial Data pick NVS?

Three reasons. (1) THE BUSINESS THAT PAYS THE DIVIDEND IS NOT THE ONE THAT FAILED: pelacarsen, del-desiran and the ALS project bring in zero dollars today — they are bets on the future. What actually bills grew in the quarter: Kisqali +43%, Kesimpta +32%, Scemblix +89%, Pluvicto +43%, Leqvio +59%, Fabhalta +88%, Cosentyx +10%. On July 21 Novartis reaffirmed its 2026 guidance and its mid-term goal of 5–6% annual sales growth through 2030. (2) WE'RE BUYING THE PANIC, WITH A DATE AND A PRICE: the stock fell ~12% in a single day (September 8), its biggest drop on record according to Bloomberg, and landed at $140.58 — ~18% below its 52-week high ($170.46) and at 14.1x expected earnings, a no-future multiple for a company billing $55 billion a year. And the pipeline isn't dead: on September 1 remibrutinib won two Phase IIIs in multiple sclerosis. (3) YOU GET PAID TO WAIT, WITH A 29-YEAR RECORD: a 3.42% yield, a dividend raised 29 consecutive years since Novartis was created in December 1996 (CHF 3.70 per share for 2025, +5.7%), plus a buyback of up to $10 billion with $5.6 billion still to execute and an Aa3/AA− credit rating. The honest part of the case: consensus is Hold with a $156.56 target (+11.4%) and Novartis' own guidance says 2026 core operating income will fall low single digits. Here we're buying income and value after a beating, not an explosive growth story.

What are the risks of investing in NVS?

#1: the labs just failed in public, three times in under two weeks. On September 4 pelacarsen missed its goal in a Phase III study of ~8,300 patients; on September 8 del-desiran failed in myotonic dystrophy type 1 — the crown jewel of the $12 billion Avidity acquisition closed on February 27, 2026; on September 16 it cancelled its ALS program. The underlying doubt is no longer one study: it's whether the R&D and acquisition machine justifies what it pays. Others: (2) patents: Entresto collapsed −51% in the quarter, Promacta −65%, Tasigna −58%, Xolair −25% — which is why guidance says 2026 core operating income falls; (3) governance: Artisan Partners (David Samra) publicly demanded board changes on September 10 over the R&D and M&A failures; (4) balance sheet: net debt jumped from $21.9 billion to $39.4 billion in six months on $15.3 billion of acquisitions and $9.1 billion of dividends; (5) US pricing: the pricing agreement with the US government is already baked into 2026 guidance and the 2030 goal; (6) new competition: on September 15 the FDA approved the first radioligand equivalent of Lutathera; (7) the dividend has fine print: it is declared in Swiss francs, paid once a year (March) and Switzerland withholds 35% before it reaches your account (reclaimable down to 15% under treaty); (8) Hold consensus with a $156.56 target — Wall Street expects no quick miracle.

Does NVS pay dividends?

Yes. Novartis AG pays a dividend of about 3.42% per year.

How can I buy NVS with little money?

You can buy fractional shares of NVS starting from a few dollars with any broker that offers fractional shares. The Vectorial Data method: invest the same amount in every pick, every time.

When was this NVS analysis last updated?

The NVS analysis was last updated on Invalid Date.

Stocks/NVS

NVS — Novartis AG

HealthcareEuropeSwitzerlandBlockchain certified

$140.58

Target: $156.56 (+11.4%)

P/E Ratio

20.9

P/E Forward

14.1

Dividend

3.42%

Market Cap

$263.6B

EPS

$6.63

Consensus

Hold

What they do

Novartis (Basel, Switzerland; CEO Vas Narasimhan since 2018; ~75,300 employees) is one of the world's largest pharmaceutical companies and today a 'pure' branded-medicines business: it spun off Alcon (eye care) in 2019 and Sandoz (generics) in 2023, so all its revenue comes from patented medicines across four areas — oncology, immunology, neuroscience and cardio-renal-metabolic.

The Q2 2026 portfolio reads like this (sales and growth at constant currency): Cosentyx $1.82 billion (+10%), Kisqali for breast cancer $1.70 billion (+43%), Kesimpta for multiple sclerosis $1.42 billion (+32%), Entresto for heart failure $1.18 billion (−51%, it lost patent protection), Pluvicto for prostate cancer $651 million (+43%), Scemblix for leukemia $562 million (+89%), Leqvio for cholesterol $480 million (+59%), Fabhalta $225 million (+88%) and newly launched Rhapsido $64 million. It is exactly the movie of a pharma company in transition: the old collapses, the new grows twice as fast.

September 2026 was brutal. On the 4th its heart medicine pelacarsen (with Ionis) failed a Phase III study of ~8,300 patients; on the 8th del-desiran failed — the centerpiece of the $12 billion Avidity Biosciences acquisition closed in February; on the 16th it cancelled its ALS program. On the other side, on September 1 its pill remibrutinib (Rhapsido) won two Phase III studies in multiple sclerosis against the standard treatment, with no liver-safety signal.

Why we like it

Three reasons.

THE BUSINESS THAT PAYS THE DIVIDEND IS NOT THE ONE THAT FAILED: pelacarsen, del-desiran and the ALS project bring in zero dollars today — they are bets on the future. What actually bills grew in the quarter: Kisqali +43%, Kesimpta +32%, Scemblix +89%, Pluvicto +43%, Leqvio +59%, Fabhalta +88%, Cosentyx +10%. On July 21 Novartis reaffirmed its 2026 guidance and its mid-term goal of 5–6% annual sales growth through 2030.
WE'RE BUYING THE PANIC, WITH A DATE AND A PRICE: the stock fell ~12% in a single day (September 8), its biggest drop on record according to Bloomberg, and landed at $140.58 — ~18% below its 52-week high ($170.46) and at 14.1x expected earnings, a no-future multiple for a company billing $55 billion a year. And the pipeline isn't dead: on September 1 remibrutinib won two Phase IIIs in multiple sclerosis.
YOU GET PAID TO WAIT, WITH A 29-YEAR RECORD: a 3.42% yield, a dividend raised 29 consecutive years since Novartis was created in December 1996 (CHF 3.70 per share for 2025, +5.7%), plus a buyback of up to $10 billion with $5.6 billion still to execute and an Aa3/AA− credit rating.

The honest part of the case: consensus is Hold with a $156.56 target (+11.4%) and Novartis' own guidance says 2026 core operating income will fall low single digits. Here we're buying income and value after a beating, not an explosive growth story.

Key Risk

#1: the labs just failed in public, three times in under two weeks. On September 4 pelacarsen missed its goal in a Phase III study of ~8,300 patients; on September 8 del-desiran failed in myotonic dystrophy type 1 — the crown jewel of the $12 billion Avidity acquisition closed on February 27, 2026; on September 16 it cancelled its ALS program. The underlying doubt is no longer one study: it's whether the R&D and acquisition machine justifies what it pays. Others:

patents: Entresto collapsed −51% in the quarter, Promacta −65%, Tasigna −58%, Xolair −25% — which is why guidance says 2026 core operating income falls;
governance: Artisan Partners (David Samra) publicly demanded board changes on September 10 over the R&D and M&A failures;
balance sheet: net debt jumped from $21.9 billion to $39.4 billion in six months on $15.3 billion of acquisitions and $9.1 billion of dividends;
US pricing: the pricing agreement with the US government is already baked into 2026 guidance and the 2030 goal;
new competition: on September 15 the FDA approved the first radioligand equivalent of Lutathera;
the dividend has fine print: it is declared in Swiss francs, paid once a year (March) and Switzerland withholds 35% before it reaches your account (reclaimable down to 15% under treaty);
Hold consensus with a $156.56 target — Wall Street expects no quick miracle.

This is educational and informational content, not financial advice. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Vectorial Data picked NVS on 2026-09-16 at $140.58.

Last updated: Invalid Date

Dividends received by the Vectorial portfolio

NVS has not paid a dividend to the portfolio yet.

Full Research

Qué hace. Novartis AG (NYSE: NVS; SIX: NOVN; Lichtstrasse 35, Basilea, Suiza; CEO Vas Narasimhan desde 2018; ~75,300 empleados; creada en diciembre de 1996) es una farmacéutica global enfocada exclusivamente en medicinas de marca: separó Alcon (cuidado visual) en 2019 y Sandoz (genéricos) en 2023. Cuatro áreas terapéuticas: oncología, inmunología, neurociencia y cardio-renal-metabólico. Top de marcas del segundo trimestre de 2026 (ventas y crecimiento a tipo de cambio constante): Cosentyx $1,824 millones (+10%), Kisqali $1,695 millones (+43%), Kesimpta $1,424 millones (+32%), Entresto $1,181 millones (−51%), Pluvicto $651 millones (+43%), Tafinlar+Mekinist $581 millones (0%), Jakavi $576 millones (+8%), Scemblix $562 millones (+89%), Ilaris $550 millones (+15%), Leqvio $480 millones (+59%), Zolgensma $365 millones (+20%), Fabhalta $225 millones (+88%), Lutathera $225 millones (+8%) y Rhapsido $64 millones (lanzamiento).

Resultados (segundo trimestre 2026, publicados el 21 de julio). Ventas netas $14,408 millones (+3% en dólares, +1% a tipo de cambio constante); utilidad operativa core $5,940 millones (plana), margen core 41.2% (−70 puntos base); utilidad core por acción $2.41 (0% en dólares, −1% cc); utilidad neta $3,257 millones (−19%); flujo de caja libre $5,561 millones (−12%). Primer semestre 2026: ventas $27,521 millones (+1% en dólares, −2% cc), utilidad operativa core $10,837 millones (−6% / −7% cc), core por acción $4.39 (−6% / −8% cc), margen core 39.4%. Guía 2026 reafirmada: ventas netas crecen un dígito bajo y la utilidad operativa core cae un dígito bajo (a tipo de cambio constante). Meta de mediano plazo: ventas creciendo 5–6% anual compuesto entre 2025 y 2030. Base 2025: ventas netas $54,532 millones (+8%), utilidad operativa core $21,889 millones (+12%), core por acción $8.98 (+15%). Vas Narasimhan el 21 de julio: 'Novartis entregó un segundo trimestre sólido, volviendo al crecimiento de ventas impulsado por Kisqali, Kesimpta, Scemblix y Pluvicto... seguimos en camino de cumplir la guía del año y la perspectiva de mediano plazo.'

El golpe de septiembre de 2026. (1) 4 de septiembre: pelacarsen (desarrollado con Ionis) no alcanzó su objetivo principal en el estudio de fase III Lp(a)HORIZON, en ~8,300 pacientes con lipoproteína(a) elevada y enfermedad cardiovascular establecida; el fracaso arrastró también a Amgen y a Eli Lilly, que persiguen la misma diana. (2) 8 de septiembre: del-desiran (delpacibart etedesiran) falló su objetivo principal en el estudio de fase III HARBOR en distrofia miotónica tipo 1 — mostró actividad en objetivos secundarios y Novartis dijo que evalúa el conjunto de datos con los reguladores. Era el activo central de la compra de Avidity Biosciences por $12,000 millones, anunciada en octubre de 2025 y cerrada el 27 de febrero de 2026. Bloomberg reportó la mayor caída en un día registrada para la acción; ~$30,000 millones de valor de mercado se evaporaron en la semana. (3) 16 de septiembre: Novartis canceló su programa de ELA dirigido a TREM2 tras fallar en fase II. (4) 10 de septiembre: Artisan Partners (David Samra) pidió públicamente cambios en el consejo de administración por los fracasos de I+D y de M&A; Reuters tituló que para Novartis 'el M&A es a la vez la enfermedad y la cura'. Del otro lado de la balanza: el 1 de septiembre remibrutinib (Rhapsido) ganó dos estudios de fase III en esclerosis múltiple recurrente frente a teriflunomida, sin señal de toxicidad hepática; el 15 de septiembre la FDA aprobó el primer equivalente radioligando de Lutathera (de Curium); y el 16 Novartis pagó $125 millones a Sironax por una plataforma para cruzar la barrera hematoencefálica.

Pipeline 2026. Aprobaciones del segundo trimestre: Rhapsido (remibrutinib) aprobado en la Unión Europea y por el MHLW de Japón para urticaria espontánea crónica — el primer inhibidor BTK aprobado en esa enfermedad; Itvisma aprobado en la UE como la única terapia de reemplazo génico para una población amplia de atrofia muscular espinal; Fabhalta con aprobación tradicional de la FDA como el primer inhibidor del complemento que frena el deterioro renal en nefropatía por IgA. Kisqali obtuvo exclusividad pediátrica de la FDA (6 meses extra sobre todas sus patentes del Orange Book) y su seguimiento a 6 años en cáncer de mama temprano mostró beneficio en supervivencia global. Se presentó a la FDA la solicitud de aprobación acelerada de del-zota en distrofia muscular de Duchenne. La OMS precalificó Coartem Baby, el primer antimalárico desarrollado para recién nacidos de 2 a 5 kg.

Dividendo y capital. Un solo pago al año, en marzo. Para 2025 el consejo propuso 3.70 francos suizos por acción (+5.7% sobre 3.50), el 29º aumento consecutivo desde la creación de Novartis en diciembre de 1996; aprobado en la asamblea del 6 de marzo de 2026. El ADR recibió $3.08116 el 16 de marzo de 2026: la diferencia contra el rendimiento bruto de 3.42% es la retención fiscal suiza de 35% (recuperable hasta dejar 15% por tratado). Recompra: programa de hasta $10,000 millones anunciado en julio de 2025, con $5,600 millones aún por ejecutar; en el primer semestre de 2026 recompró 18.2 millones de acciones por $2,800 millones en la segunda línea de la bolsa suiza. Deuda neta: $39,400 millones al 30 de junio de 2026 contra $21,900 millones al cierre de 2025 — el salto viene de $15,300 millones de salidas por M&A y activos intangibles y $9,100 millones de dividendo anual. Calificación crediticia Aa3 (Moody's) y AA− (S&P Global).

Acción. $140.58 de apertura (16 de septiembre de 2026); capitalización ~$263,600 millones; rango 52 semanas $121.57–$170.46 (~18% abajo del máximo); P/E 20.9x TTM / 14.1x forward; utilidad por acción reportada $6.63 (la 'core' corre cerca de $9). En el año la acción va prácticamente plana pese al derrumbe de septiembre. Consenso Hold (12 analistas según S&P Global), target promedio $156.56 (+11.4%), rango $130–$185.

Riesgos. (1) Pipeline: tres tropiezos públicos en menos de dos semanas (pelacarsen, del-desiran, ELA); la pregunta de fondo es si la I+D y las compras justifican el precio pagado. (2) Patentes: Entresto −51% cc en el trimestre, Promacta/Revolade −65%, Tasigna −58%, Xolair −25%; la utilidad operativa core de 2026 está guiada a caer. (3) Gobernanza: Artisan Partners exige cambios de consejo; presión pública sobre el CEO. (4) Precios en EE.UU.: el acuerdo de precios con el gobierno estadounidense ya está reflejado en la guía 2026 y en la meta 2025–2030. (5) Balance: la deuda neta casi se duplicó en seis meses. (6) Competencia nueva: primer genérico radioligando de Lutathera aprobado el 15 de septiembre de 2026. (7) Moneda y fiscalidad del dividendo: se declara en francos suizos, se paga una vez al año y Suiza retiene 35%. (8) Consenso Hold con target $156.56: Wall Street no espera una revaluación rápida.

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Researched: 9/16/2026Updated: 9/16/2026Next review: 3/16/2027

This is not financial advice. Consult a certified financial advisor.

The author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.