ITUB — Itaú Unibanco Holding S.A.
$8.14
Target: $9.60 (+17.9%)
P/E Ratio
10.3
P/E Forward
8.7
Dividend
6.5%
Market Cap
$89.7B
EPS
$0.79
Consensus
Buy
What they do
Itaú Unibanco (NYSE: ITUB) is the largest private bank in Brazil and in all of Latin America — the region's 'BBVA/Santander', but Brazilian. It does what a giant bank does: accounts, credit cards, loans to individuals and companies, insurance, brokerage and investments, with a loan book of R$1.5 trillion (+9% year over year). Formed in its current shape by the 2008 merger of Itaú and Unibanco.
How you buy it (the ADR): on the New York Stock Exchange it trades as ITUB, and 1 ADR equals 1 preferred share (ITUB4) listed in São Paulo. You collect your dividends in dollars. That's why the New York price moves with two things at once: how the bank is doing and the real/dollar exchange rate.
Why it's a special bank:
- Elite profitability. In Q1 2026 its return on equity (ROE) was 24.8% — meaning it earned nearly 25 cents a year for every real of its owners' capital. Very few large banks in the world reach those levels; the big US and European ones typically sit around 10-15%.
- Record asset quality. Its 90-day non-performing loans came in at just 1.9% — among the lowest in its history. It lends a lot, but collects well.
- Record efficiency. Its efficiency ratio in Brazil fell to 37.1% (lower is better: it means it spends little to generate each real of revenue).
The latest quarter (Q1 2026, reported May 5):
- Recurring profit: R$12.3 billion (+10.4% versus the same quarter of 2025).
- Annualized recurring ROE: 24.8%.
- Loan book: R$1.5 trillion (+9% year over year, ex-FX), driven by corporate lending.
- 90-day NPLs: 1.9% (stable, at lows).
Brazil's backdrop (key for a bank):
- The Selic interest rate is at 14.25% — very high (the peak was 15%). At rates like that, a bank that takes in cheap deposits and lends at high rates earns huge spreads. The central bank only just started cutting carefully (three 0.25% cuts), so margins are still fat.
- The Brazilian real strengthened toward ~5.15 per dollar (up ~7% versus the dollar over the past year). For anyone holding the ADR in dollars, that's a tailwind.
Dividend (the star): Itaú pays out almost every month, plus larger periodic payments under the Brazilian 'interest on own capital' (JCP) figure. Added up over the past 12 months, it yields ~6.5% a year at today's price — one of the best yields in the portfolio. Note: part is small and fixed (the monthly payments) and part is larger and variable (it depends on the year's earnings).
Leadership: CEO Milton Maluhy Filho (since February 2021). Headquarters in São Paulo, Brazil. ~100,000 employees.
Valuation: ~10x trailing earnings and ~8.7x forward earnings — cheap for a bank of this quality. Market cap: ~$90 billion. Analyst consensus: 'Buy', with an average target of ~$9.5-$10 (JPMorgan raised it to $10 on July 7, 2026).
Why we like it
ITUB at $8.14 is reinforcing one of the best bank-profitability machines in the world, bought cheap and paying a juicy yield. Remember: we already held it since May 27 (~$7.97) — this is a top-up, not a new position — and we bought it again because the story only improved. Specific reasons:
- Elite profitability, confirmed: in Q1 2026 (reported May 5, after our first buy) ROE was 24.8% — few large banks on the planet earn that much per real of capital — with recurring profit of R$12.3 billion (+10.4% year over year), the best asset quality in its history (just 1.9% NPLs) and record efficiency (37.1%).
- The dividend — the star: it pays almost every month plus periodic 'interest on own capital' payments, adding up to ~6.5% a year at today's price. It's one of the best yields in the portfolio and a central reason to hold this pick.
- Cheap for its quality: it trades at ~10x earnings and ~8.7x forward; a bank returning ~25% on equity usually costs more.
- The macro wind helps the ADR: the Selic is still very high (14.25%), keeping the bank's margins huge, and the real strengthened toward 5.15 per dollar (up ~7% over the year) — since we collect in dollars, a stronger real adds to us.
- Reinforcing with more support than in May: since our first buy, Itaú reported a record quarter in quality and efficiency, JPMorgan raised its target to $10 (July 7), and consensus remains 'Buy' with an average target of ~$9.5-$10 (~+17-23% above). Honesty: it's still Brazil, and the ADR is a step away from its 52-week high ($9.60) — this isn't a hidden bargain, it's quality bought at a reasonable price with a good yield.
Key Risk
Risks:
- It's Brazil — the #1: Brazilian politics and economy rule over this bank. An election scare, a fiscal shift or a recession hit such a large lender directly.
- The real/dollar swing: since you hold the ADR in dollars, if the real weakens against the dollar your investment is worth less in dollars even if the bank does well in Brazil. Today the real is strong (~5.15), but that can reverse quickly.
- The Selic has already started falling: the interest rate dropped from a 15% peak to 14.25% and could keep going. Lower rates, over time, squeeze the margins that make the bank so profitable today (though they also revive lending, so it cuts both ways). And Brazil's inflation (projected at 5.2% for 2026) is still above the central bank's ceiling.
- Credit cycle: today NPLs are at lows (1.9%), but for a bank that's as good as it gets — if the economy slows, NPLs rise and earnings fall.
- Fintech competition: Nubank (the Brazilian digital bank, now with over 100 million customers) is fighting for retail customers, especially younger ones, with free products and a better app.
- Part of the dividend is variable: the fixed monthly payments are small; the bulk of that ~6.5% depends on the year's earnings — if the bank earns less, it pays less.
This is educational and informational content, not financial advice. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Vectorial Data picked ITUB on 2026-05-27 at $8.14.
Full Research
Itaú Unibanco (ITUB) — Research Completo
RECOMPRA (refuerzo) · Precio: $8.14 | P/E TTM: ~10x | P/E fwd: ~8.7x | Div Yield: ~6.5% | Market Cap: ~$90 mil millones USD
Primera compra: 27 may 2026 (~$7.97). Hoy reforzamos a $8.14 (+2%).
¿Qué es Itaú Unibanco?
El banco privado más grande de Brasil y de toda América Latina. Banca minorista y corporativa, tarjetas, seguros, corretaje y gestión de activos, con una cartera de crédito de R$1.5 billones (millones de millones). Nace de la fusión de Itaú y Unibanco (2008). Sede en São Paulo, Brasil. ~100,000 empleados. CEO: Milton Maluhy Filho (desde febrero de 2021).
El ADR: en NYSE cotiza como ITUB y 1 ADR = 1 acción preferente (ITUB4) de São Paulo. Los dividendos se cobran en dólares. El precio en Nueva York se mueve con el desempeño del banco y con el tipo de cambio real/dólar.
Último trimestre (Q1 2026, reportado 5 may 2026)
| Métrica | Q1 2026 |
|---|---|
| Utilidad recurrente | R$12.3 mil millones (+10.4% anual) |
| ROE recurrente (anualizado) | 24.8% — de los más altos de la banca mundial |
| Cartera de crédito | R$1.5 billones (+9% anual, sin efecto FX) |
| Morosidad >90 días | 1.9% (estable, en mínimos) |
| Índice de eficiencia (Brasil) | 37.1% (récord — mientras más bajo, mejor) |
| Costo del crédito | R$9.95 mil millones |
Lectura: el trimestre confirmó exactamente la tesis con la que compramos en mayo — rentabilidad de élite, la mejor calidad de activos de su historia y récord de eficiencia.
Valuación y mercado
| Dato | Valor |
|---|---|
| Precio (ADR) | $8.14 |
| P/E TTM | ~10x (EPS TTM ~$0.79) |
| P/E forward | ~8.7x |
| ROE TTM | ~22% (recurrente Q1 anualizado: 24.8%) |
| Market cap | ~$90 mil millones (≈11 mil millones de acciones) |
| Rango 52 semanas | $5.93 – $9.60 |
| Consenso | Buy |
| Target promedio | ~$9.5-$10 (~+17-23%); JPMorgan lo subió a $10 el 7 jul 2026 |
El contexto de Brasil (clave para un banco)
- Selic en 14.25%: altísima (pico 15%). El banco central apenas empezó a bajarla con tres recortes de 0.25% desde marzo. Con tasas así, un banco grande gana spreads enormes — los márgenes siguen gordos.
- Inflación 2026 proyectada en ~5.2%, arriba del techo (4.5%) del banco central — motivo por el que la Selic no baja rápido.
- Real fortalecido: USD/BRL ~5.15 (el real subió ~7% frente al dólar en el último año). Para el ADR en dólares, es viento a favor.
Dividendo (la estrella del pick)
- Itaú reparte casi todos los meses (pagos fijos pequeños, ~$0.003 por ADR) más pagos periódicos más grandes de 'intereses sobre capital propio' (JCP).
- Sumado en los últimos 12 meses: ~$0.53 por ADR = ~6.5% anual a $8.14 — de las mejores rentas del portafolio.
- Ojo: una parte es fija (mensual) y otra es variable (depende de las ganancias del año).
Qué cambió desde mayo (por qué reforzamos)
- Q1 2026 confirmó la tesis: ROE 24.8%, morosidad récord de 1.9%, eficiencia récord 37.1%.
- La Selic empezó a bajar (15% → 14.25%): mantiene márgenes gordos hoy y, al aflojar, puede reactivar el crédito — mildamente positivo para valuación.
- El real se fortaleció hacia 5.15/dólar: tailwind directo para el ADR en dólares.
- JPMorgan subió el target a $10 (7 jul 2026); consenso sigue en 'Buy'.
- Precio: de ~$7.97 (may) a $8.14 (hoy) — la historia mejoró más que el precio.
Anchor Fact
Itaú gana casi 25 centavos de utilidad al año por cada real de capital de sus dueños (ROE ~25%) — una rentabilidad que pocos bancos grandes en el mundo logran — y aun así cotiza barato, a unas 10 veces sus ganancias, mientras te paga alrededor de 6.5% anual en dividendos casi todos los meses.
Top 6 Risks
- Es Brasil — política y economía brasileña mandan; sustos electorales o fiscales golpean directo
- Real/dólar — el ADR está en dólares; un real más débil te resta aunque al banco le vaya bien
- La Selic ya empezó a bajar (15% → 14.25%) — con el tiempo aprieta márgenes; inflación 2026 ~5.2% sigue arriba del techo
- Ciclo de crédito — morosidad hoy en mínimos (1.9%); si la economía se frena, sube y las ganancias bajan
- Nubank y fintechs — el banco digital brasileño (100M+ clientes) le pelea a los minoristas jóvenes
- Dividendo parcialmente variable — el grueso del ~6.5% depende de las ganancias del año
Analyst Consensus
- Rating: Buy
- Target promedio: ~$9.5-$10 (~+17-23% desde $8.14)
- JPMorgan: Overweight, target subido a $10 (7 jul 2026)
- Rango 52 semanas: $5.93 – $9.60
Tesis en una línea
El banco más rentable y mejor administrado de América Latina, comprado barato (~10x utilidad) y pagando ~6.5% anual — un refuerzo de calidad respaldado por un trimestre récord y una Selic que aún mantiene sus márgenes gordos.
Research fecha: 9 Jul 2026 | Próxima revisión: Ene 2027
Esto no es asesoría financiera.
This is not financial advice. Consult a certified financial advisor.
The author may hold positions in the securities discussed.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.