NU — Nu Holdings Ltd
$14.50
Target: $18.26 (+25.9%)
P/E Ratio
25.0
P/E Forward
12.6
Dividend
—
Market Cap
$70.5B
EPS
$0.58
Consensus
Moderate Buy
What they do
Nu Holdings Ltd (NU) is the largest 100% digital bank in Latin America and, by number of customers, the largest fintech platform in the world outside China.
Core product: the purple Nubank credit card (#1 issuer of new cards in Brazil and Mexico), the NuConta digital account (no fees, no branches — receive your salary, transfer, pay), Nu Crypto (buy/sell bitcoin from the app), NuInvest (investing for beginners — funds, Brazilian CDs, stocks), insurance and personal loans.
Markets:
- Brazil (~75% of the business, 100M+ customers — more than Itaú, the largest traditional bank)
- Mexico (~15% of the adult population, leader in new card issuance)
- Colombia (4M+ customers, accelerating credit card expansion)
Founders and control: David Vélez (Colombian, ex-Sequoia, Stanford MBA), Cristina Junqueira (Brazilian, ex-Itaú), Edward Wible (American, ex-Boston Consulting). David Vélez remains CEO — still founder-led.
Backers: Berkshire Hathaway (Warren Buffett), ~$1B invested since the 2021 IPO — Buffett rarely touches fintech; NU is a notable exception. Tencent is also a major shareholder.
Listing: NYSE under ticker NU since December 2021. Class A ordinary shares (Cayman Islands holding company; operations in Brazil/Mexico/Colombia).
Q4 2025/FY2025 (reported Feb 25, 2026):
- FY2025 revenue: $16.3B (+45% YoY)
- FY2025 net income: $2.9B (+45% YoY)
- Q4'25 revenue: $4.9B (beat the $4.55B consensus)
- Record 33% ROE — the highest of any large bank globally
- 131M customers worldwide (+17M net in 2025)
HQ: São Paulo, Brazil. ~13,000 employees. Next earnings: May 14, 2026 after the close.
Why we like it
NU at $14.50 means buying the most profitable bank in the world (33% ROE) growing 45% a year, at a forward P/E of 12.6x — half the valuation the market pays for JPMorgan/BAC (P/E 14-16x with 6-8% growth). Specific reasons:
- 33% ROE is a global record for any large bank: JPMorgan 17%, BAC 11%, Citi 7%, HSBC 13%. NU generates $33 of net profit for every $100 of its own capital — more efficient than any Wall Street giant, with a growth rate 5-7x higher. That growth + ROE combination doesn't exist in any other listed bank.
- 131M customers (+17M net in 2025) = more than the population of Mexico and almost as many as Japan. In Mexico NU serves 15% of the adult population and is #1 in new card issuance; in Colombia, 4M+ customers with an expanding credit portfolio. The Mexican business alone could be worth $20B+ as a standalone.
- U.S. OCC charter conditionally approved January 29, 2026 (after a 121-day review) — NU can operate as a U.S. national bank with insured deposits, lending and digital-asset custody. Plan: hubs in Miami, the SF Bay Area, Virginia and North Carolina. Full capitalization within 12 months, opening within 18. The U.S. opens a >$3 trillion market vs. LatAm's $400B — NU becomes a global bank, not just a LATAM bank.
- R$45B (~$8.2B) of investment in Brazil in 2026 = nearly 2x the level of two years ago. Management is flooring the accelerator on high-value customer cohorts (NuConta payroll, NuInvest, larger-ticket credit).
- Q1 2026 earnings May 14 (after the close, next week): consensus revenue $5.06-5.10B, GAAP EPS $0.19, normalized EPS $0.21. NU has beaten revenue consensus for 8 straight quarters. If it beats and guides well, a >5% gap up is likely; if it disappoints, a chance to add at better prices.
- Berkshire Hathaway $1B+ since 2021 = validation from Buffett (who rarely invests in fintech) plus Tencent as a shareholder. Very stable insider holdings.
- Record efficiency: cost-to-serve of $0.95/month per active customer vs. $30+ at traditional Brazilian banks. Every new customer is margin-positive from month one.
- Forward P/E of 12.6x with 45% growth = a PEG below 0.3 — extremely cheap. Banks growing at that rate have historically traded at 2-4x that valuation.
- Analyst consensus Moderate Buy, average target $18.26 = +25.9% upside vs. $14.50. (10) 24% off the 52-week high of $18.98: the market punished NU for Brazilian real weakness in Q1 2026, but the business grew 45% in constant dollars — the pullback is FX, not fundamentals.
Key Risk
The risks are specifically measurable:
- Brazilian real / FX = ~75% of the business: when the BRL weakens vs. the USD, earnings reported in dollars shrink even if the business grows in local currency. In 2025 the BRL fell ~20% vs. the USD; NU absorbed the hit in Q1 2026. If the BRL drops another 10-15% (plausible if Brazil hikes interest rates aggressively or if Trump imposes tariffs on Brazil), USD-reported revenue could flatten or fall even with 40% local-currency growth.
- Brazilian interest rates (Selic): the Selic sits at ~14.25% (May 2026), among the highest in the world. If NU raises customer rates to protect its spread, net interest margin benefits — but defaults rise too. 90+ day NPLs (loans gone unpaid) rose to 6.1% in Q4 2025 — manageable, but the trajectory matters.
- Mexico = the most competitive market: BBVA, Santander, Banamex, MercadoPago, Stori — all fighting for the same unbanked customer. NU leads in new cards but Mexican unit economics aren't profitable yet (a -$15-20M operating loss in Mexico FY2025). Path to MX profitability = 2027-28.
- The OCC U.S. charter is conditional: it requires full capitalization within 12 months plus specific non-public conditions. If the Federal Reserve or FDIC add extra hurdles (enhanced KYC, stricter capital requirements), the U.S. launch slips from 18 months to 24-30.
- Q1 2026 earnings May 14 = a binary catalyst: a beat ($5.10B+ revenue, ROE >32%) likely gaps the stock up; a miss likely means a -10-15% correction (the stock is already -24% off the high).
- Founder concentration in David Vélez: founder-led is a positive but also a single-point risk. Vélez holds control via dual-class shares — if he leaves or his role gets diluted, governance changes.
- Crypto exposure post-OCC: the charter includes digital-asset custody. If crypto collapses (post-2025-26 Bitcoin halving cycle), Nu Crypto could lose profitability/customers.
- MercadoPago competition: across LATAM, MELI's MercadoPago is a direct competitor (also 50M+ financial users, high ROE). If MercadoPago accelerates, NU loses share.
- Brazil's government (Lula): Brazilian banking regulation could tighten — the Central Bank capped revolving credit-card rates in 2024; another regulatory round would hit margins. (10) Valuation if growth slows: if net adds fall from 17M/year to 10M/year, the forward P/E "normalizes" toward the sector average (~10x) → roughly 20% downside.
This is educational and informational content, not financial advice. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Vectorial Data picked NU on 2026-05-06 at $14.50.
Full Research
Nu Holdings Ltd (NU) — Research Completo
Precio: $14.50 | P/E TTM: 25.00 | P/E Forward: 12.60 | Div Yield: 0% | Market Cap: $70.50B
¿Qué es Nu Holdings?
Nu Holdings Ltd es el mayor banco 100% digital de Latinoamérica y, por número de clientes (131M), la mayor plataforma fintech del mundo fuera de China.
Historia:
- 2013: David Vélez (colombiano, ex-Sequoia) funda Nubank en São Paulo con Cristina Junqueira y Edward Wible
- 2021 (dic): IPO en NYSE, valuación $41B, una de las IPOs fintech más grandes de la historia
- 2024: 100M+ clientes alcanzados
- 29 enero 2026: OCC aprueba condicionalmente charter de banco nacional EE.UU.
HQ: São Paulo, Brasil | Empleados: ~13,000 | Cotización: NYSE (Class A ordinary)
Producto
Brasil (~75% revenue, 100M+ clientes)
- Tarjeta de crédito Nubank morada: #1 emisora del país, sin comisión anual
- NuConta: cuenta digital sin comisiones — payroll, PIX, pagos, transferencias
- NuInvest: inversiones (CDB, fondos, acciones B3)
- Nu Crypto: compra/venta BTC + tokens
- Crédito personal + seguros
México (~15% adultos)
- Líder en emisión de tarjetas de crédito nuevas
- Cuenta NuConta MXN
- Operating loss FY2025 ~$15-20M (path to profitability 2027-28)
Colombia (4M+ clientes)
- Tarjeta de crédito + cuenta digital
- Aprobación 3x más alta de tarjetas tras expansión 2025
Q4 2025 / FY 2025 — Reportado 25 feb 2026
| Métrica | FY 2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $16.3B | +45% |
| Net Income | $2.9B | +45% |
| Q4 Revenue | $4.9B | beat $4.55B |
| Q4 EPS | $0.18 | beat $0.18 |
| ROE | 33% | récord global |
| Customers | 131M | +17M netos |
| Customers México | ~12-13M | 15% adultos |
| Customers Colombia | 4M+ | — |
ROE 33% — El Diferenciador
| Banco | ROE |
|---|---|
| Nu Holdings | 33% |
| JPMorgan Chase | 17% |
| HSBC | 13% |
| Bank of America | 11% |
| Citigroup | 7% |
NU genera $33 de utilidad neta por cada $100 de capital propio — el más alto de cualquier banco grande del mundo, con tasa de crecimiento 5-7x mayor.
OCC US National Bank Charter — 29 enero 2026
- Aplicación: 30 sept 2025
- Aprobación condicional: 29 enero 2026 (121 días)
- Pendiente: FDIC + Federal Reserve approvals
- Plan: Capitalización completa en 12 meses, apertura banco en 18 meses
- Hubs EE.UU.: Miami, SF Bay Area, Northern Virginia, NC Research Triangle
- Servicios: depósitos asegurados, tarjetas, lending, custodia de activos digitales
TAM EE.UU. = >$3T vs LATAM $400B → NU evoluciona de banco LATAM a banco global digital.
Inversión Brasil 2026
- R$45B (~$8.2B USD) en Brasil 2026
- ~2x el nivel de inversión de hace 2 años
- Foco: cohort high-value (payroll, NuInvest, crédito de mayor ticket)
Backers Estratégicos
- Berkshire Hathaway (Warren Buffett): ~$1B desde IPO 2021 — única apuesta fintech notable en la carrera de Buffett
- Tencent: stake mayor desde 2018
- Sequoia Capital: pre-IPO
- Insider holding estable, founder David Vélez retiene control via dual-class
Próximo Catalyst — Q1 2026 Earnings
- Fecha: 14 mayo 2026 (after-close, NYSE)
- Consensus revenue: $5.06-5.10B
- Consensus EPS GAAP: $0.19
- Consensus EPS normalized: $0.21
- Track record: 8 trimestres consecutivos batiendo revenue consensus
Valuación
- Forward P/E: 12.6x — vs sector banca digital LATAM ~15x, vs JPM/BAC/Citi 14-16x
- PEG (forward P/E ÷ growth): ~0.28 — extremadamente barato
- 52-week range: $11.71 – $18.98 → 24% off high
- Mean analyst target: $18.26 → +25.9% upside
- Analyst rating: Moderate Buy
Tesis en una línea
Comprar el banco más rentable del mundo (ROE 33%, vs 11-17% de JPM/BAC/Citi) creciendo 45% YoY a forward P/E 12.6x — la mitad de la valuación de los gigantes de Wall Street que crecen 6-8%, justo cuando OCC les aprobó banco nacional EE.UU. (29 ene 2026), abriendo TAM >$3T vs LATAM $400B. Backed by Buffett. 24% off 52-week high por castigo de FX (BRL débil), no por fundamentos.
Research fecha: 6 May 2026 | Próxima revisión: Nov 2026
Esto no es asesoría financiera.
This is not financial advice. Consult a certified financial advisor.
The author may hold positions in the securities discussed.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.