MDLZ — Mondelez International
$57.03
Target: $68.00 (+19.2%)
P/E Ratio
22.5
P/E Forward
16.9
Dividend
3.5%
Market Cap
$73.6B
EPS
$2.53
Consensus
Buy
What they do
Mondelez International is one of the largest snack companies in the world, created in 2012 as a spin-off from Kraft Foods. Based in Chicago, it operates in 150+ countries generating ~$36B in annual revenue.
Its portfolio includes some of the most globally recognized snack brands: Oreo (the #1 cookie in the world), Cadbury (iconic chocolate in the UK/India/Australia), Milka (leading chocolate in Europe), Toblerone (premium Swiss chocolate), Philadelphia (cream cheese), Trident (gum), Tang (powdered drink), Ritz (crackers), belVita (breakfast biscuits), and Halls (lozenges).
Mondelez generates ~75% of its revenue outside the US, with dominant positions in emerging markets where snack consumption is growing faster. Operating margin of ~17% with a target to expand to 18-19%.
Why we like it
Mondelez is the perfect defensive play: snack brands that people buy in any economy. Oreo, Cadbury, and Milka have real pricing power — they're low-cost impulse buys that withstand recessions.
At $57, MDLZ trades at a price vs. profit forward of 16.9x — a significant discount compared to its historical average of ~22x. The 20% drop from highs ($71) is due to concerns over cocoa costs, but these are already normalizing. Dividend of 3.5% with over 10 years of consecutive growth and a sustainable payout ratio of ~55%.
Wall Street analysts expect a Buy with an average target of ~$68 (19% upside). Mondelez combines defense (essential snacks), growth (emerging markets), and income (growing 3.5% dividend).
Key Risk
The costs of raw materials (especially cocoa and sugar) have put pressure on how much they keep per sale — the price of cocoa tripled in 2024-2025, and although it's decreasing, big price swings persist and can squeeze earnings.
Additional risks: significant currency exposure (75% revenue outside the US) with a strong dollar eroding reported results; increasing regulation of processed foods and labeling in key markets (EU, Mexico, India); intense competition from local brands in emerging markets; and risk of changing consumer habits towards 'healthy' snacks that could displace traditional categories.
This is educational and informational content, not financial advice. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Vectorial Data picked MDLZ on 2026-04-02 at $57.03.
Full Research
Mondelez International (MDLZ) — Research Completo
Precio: $57.03 | P/E Forward: 16.9 | Div Yield: 3.5% | Market Cap: $73.6B
¿Qué es Mondelez?
Mondelez International es una de las compañías de snacks más grandes del mundo, creada en 2012 como spin-off de Kraft Foods. Opera en 150+ países con ~$36B en revenue anual y algunas de las marcas de snacks más icónicas del planeta.
Marcas y Productos
| Marca | Categoría | Posición |
|---|---|---|
| Oreo | Galletas | #1 mundial, vendida en 100+ países |
| Cadbury | Chocolate | Icónica en UK, India, Australia |
| Milka | Chocolate | Líder en Europa continental |
| Toblerone | Chocolate premium | Reconocimiento global (Swiss heritage) |
| Philadelphia | Queso crema | Líder global en su categoría |
| Trident | Chicle | Top 3 global |
| Tang | Bebida en polvo | Dominante en LATAM y Asia |
| Ritz | Crackers | Icónica en EE.UU. |
| belVita | Galletas desayuno | Categoría que crearon ellos |
| Halls | Pastillas | Líder global en throat lozenges |
Números Clave 2025
| Métrica | Valor |
|---|---|
| Revenue | ~$36B |
| Margen Operativo | ~17% (objetivo 18-19%) |
| Free Cash Flow | ~$4B |
| Revenue fuera EE.UU. | ~75% |
| Empleados | ~91,000 |
| Países | 150+ |
Dividendo — 10+ Años de Crecimiento
- Dividendo anual: $2.00/acción ($0.50 trimestral)
- Yield: 3.5%
- Payout Ratio: ~55% (sostenible)
- Crecimiento: 10+ años consecutivos de aumento
Por Qué MDLZ a Estos Precios
MDLZ cotiza a $57, un 20% por debajo de su máximo de 52 semanas ($71.15). Las preocupaciones:
- Costos de cacao disparados (se triplicó en 2024-2025)
- Presión cambiaria por dólar fuerte
- Guidance conservador para 2026
Pero los fundamentals son sólidos: marcas irreemplazables, pricing power demostrado, y el cacao ya está normalizándose.
Análisis de Analistas
| Métrica | Valor |
|---|---|
| Consenso | Buy |
| Analistas | 22 |
| Target Promedio | $68 |
| Target Rango | $62 - $84 |
| Upside | +19.2% |
Riesgos Principales
- Costos de cacao/azúcar — Volatilidad en commodities comprime márgenes
- Exposición cambiaria — 75% revenue fuera EE.UU., dólar fuerte duele
- Regulación alimentaria — Etiquetado, restricciones a ultraprocesados
- Competencia local — Marcas regionales ganan share en emergentes
- Cambio de hábitos — Tendencia a snacks "saludables"
Valuación Actual
| Métrica | Valor |
|---|---|
| Precio | $57.03 |
| P/E Forward | 16.9x (vs histórico ~22x) |
| Div Yield | 3.5% |
| 52-Week High | $71.15 |
| Drawdown actual | -20% del máximo |
Conclusión
MDLZ a $57 es una oportunidad de comprar el dueño de Oreo, Cadbury y Milka a P/E de 16.9x — un descuento significativo vs su promedio histórico de ~22x. El dividendo de 3.5% es atractivo y bien cubierto (payout 55%). El miedo al cacao creó la oportunidad, pero los fundamentals (marcas irreemplazables, presencia global, pricing power) no han cambiado. Con 19% de upside según analistas más el dividendo, el retorno total esperado es ~23%.
Research fecha: 2 Abr 2026 | Próxima revisión: Oct 2026
Esto no es asesoría financiera.
This is not financial advice. Consult a certified financial advisor.
The author may hold positions in the securities discussed.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.