TER — Teradyne, Inc.
$362.67
Target: $420.00 (+15.8%)
P/E Ratio
67.3
P/E Forward
35.3
Dividend
0.14%
Market Cap
$56.5B
EPS
$5.39
Consensus
Strong Buy
What they do
Teradyne (Nasdaq: TER) makes automated semiconductor test equipment (ATE): the machines that take every freshly manufactured chip and put it through millions of electrical tests before it can be sold. No chip in the world — the one in your iPhone, in a car, an AI accelerator, a memory chip — reaches the market without passing that exam. And in practice, that exam is given by only two companies in the world: Teradyne (US, founded in 1960 by MIT-trained engineers) and Advantest (Japan).
The 3 businesses (Q1 2026 figures):
- Semiconductor Test ($1.11 billion in the quarter — 87% of sales) — the core. Machines that test processors and logic chips (the ones in phones, cars and data centers) and also memory — including HBM, the stacked memory that feeds AI accelerators and is especially hard to test. Its customers are the world's big chip fabs and assemblers: the TSMC, Samsung, SK Hynix ecosystem.
- Robotics ($91 million) — Universal Robots (the Danish pioneer of 'cobots': robotic arms that work alongside people without safety cages) and MiR (mobile robots that move material through factories and warehouses). This is the part that has disappointed: it peaked in 2022 and has seen declines and layoffs since, though it has now grown for 4 straight quarters.
- Product Test ($80 million) — testing of systems and circuit boards, storage drives, and wireless testing (LitePoint).
Why it's exploding now: each generation of AI chips is more complex — more transistors, stacked dies, HBM memory bonded to the processor, networks connecting thousands of accelerators. More complexity = more test time per chip = more Teradyne machines. In Q1 2026, ~70% of its revenue was already tied to AI demand (up from ~60% the prior quarter): custom accelerators for the cloud giants, next-generation HBM memory, and networking chips.
Leadership: CEO Greg Smith (in the role since February 2023). Headquarters in North Reading, Massachusetts. ~6,600 employees worldwide, with major operations in the Philippines, Denmark (home of Universal Robots), Costa Rica and Asia.
Dividend (symbolic): $0.13 per share per quarter (raised from $0.12 in early 2026) = $0.52 a year = ~0.1% at today's price. It also buys back shares, but let's be clear: nobody invests here for the income — the bet is growth.
2026 context: a record Q1 ($1.28 billion, +87%, 18% above the previous record set back in 2021), 60.9% gross margin, and a company 'target model' for the full year of ~$6 billion in revenue with adjusted EPS of $9.50-$11.00 — nearly double 2025's sales ($3.19 billion). Next report: July 28, 2026.
Why we like it
TER at $362.67 means REINFORCING a position we already owned (bought July 6 at $386.58), now ~6% cheaper thanks to a drop across the whole chip sector — not the company itself. You're still buying the toll booth of the AI chip boom: you're not betting on NVIDIA, AMD, or the cloud giants' in-house chips winning — whoever wins, their chips have to be tested on machines like Teradyne's. Specific reasons:
- Real duopoly: in semiconductor test equipment, practically only Teradyne and Japan's Advantest exist. Designing these machines takes decades of accumulated technology, and customers don't switch suppliers lightly — an extremely high barrier to entry.
- AI multiplies the testing hours: AI chips are huge, stacked, and very expensive, and each generation needs more test time (HBM memory is the extreme example). In Q1 2026, ~70% of Teradyne's revenue already came from AI-tied demand, and sales grew +87% — the best quarter in its 66-year history.
- The year is set to nearly double: the company's target model for 2026 is ~$6 billion in revenue (2025 closed at $3.19 billion) with adjusted earnings per share of $9.50-$11.00 — the kind of jump almost no company this size pulls off.
- Elite profitability: gross margin of ~61% and adjusted net income equal to 31% of sales in Q1 — when the cycle cooperates, this business prints money.
- Wall Street keeps raising its bets: 'Strong Buy' consensus (11 of 12 analysts say buy), with recently raised targets — BofA to $525, Susquehanna and Cantor to $550. Honesty: the average target (~$417) sits only ~8% above today's price, and the stock already hit $488 in June before correcting — it's not a hidden bargain, it's an exceptional business in the middle of a rally.
Key Risk
Risks:
- Post-rally valuation — the #1: the stock is up more than 4x in a year (from a low of ~$89 to a high of ~$488, $386.58 today) and trades at ~72x trailing earnings. The analysts' average target (~$417) sits only ~8% above, and the market is jumpy: in April the stock fell 19% in a single day... after reporting a record quarter. At these multiples there is no margin for error.
- Brutal cyclicality: chip test equipment is one of the most cyclical businesses in existence — when fabs freeze their purchases, sales collapse (Teradyne billed $3.19 billion in 2025, half of what it projects for 2026: that's how violent the swings are, in both directions). The company itself admits 'limited visibility' into the second half and its Q2 guide is below Q1.
- Customer concentration: a handful of giants (the TSMC, Samsung, SK Hynix ecosystem and the big Asian assemblers) account for much of the order book; losing or delaying a single big program moves the quarter.
- Advantest fights for every contract: it's a duopoly, but a fierce one — historically Advantest has kept, for example, the testing of NVIDIA's GPUs; if it wins the new AI programs, the boom goes to the rival.
- Robotics has disappointed for years: Universal Robots went from $326 million in 2022 to ~$232 million in 2025 (-28%), with two rounds of layoffs; it's growing again today, but remains an unkept promise.
- Geopolitics: nearly all its customers manufacture in Asia (Taiwan, Korea, China); export controls, tariffs or a conflict over Taiwan would hit directly.
This is educational and informational content, not financial advice. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Vectorial Data picked TER on 2026-07-06 at $362.67.
Full Research
Teradyne (TER) — Research Completo
Precio: $386.58 | P/E TTM: ~72x | P/E fwd: ~38x | Div Yield: ~0.1% | Market Cap: ~$60 mil millones USD
¿Qué es Teradyne?
La mitad estadounidense del duopolio mundial de equipos de prueba automatizada de semiconductores (ATE), junto con la japonesa Advantest. Sus máquinas someten cada chip recién fabricado a millones de pruebas eléctricas antes de que pueda venderse — ningún chip llega al mercado sin ese examen. Fundada en 1960 por ingenieros salidos del MIT. Sede en North Reading, Massachusetts. ~6,600 empleados (10-K al 31 dic 2025), con operaciones fuertes en Filipinas, Dinamarca, Costa Rica y Asia. CEO: Greg Smith (desde febrero 2023).
Los 3 negocios (Q1 2026)
| Segmento | Ventas Q1 2026 | Qué es |
|---|---|---|
| Semiconductor Test | $1,111 millones (87% del total) | Máquinas que prueban procesadores, chips de lógica y memoria (incluida HBM para IA) |
| Robotics | $91 millones | Universal Robots (brazos colaborativos, Dinamarca) + MiR (robots móviles) |
| Product Test | $80 millones | Prueba de sistemas y tarjetas, almacenamiento, prueba inalámbrica (LitePoint) |
Último trimestre (Q1 2026, reportado 28 abr 2026)
| Métrica | Q1 2026 |
|---|---|
| Ingresos | $1,282 millones (+87% vs $686M en Q1 2025; +18% secuencial) |
| Récord | Mejor trimestre de la historia — 18% arriba del récord anterior (Q2 2021) |
| Margen bruto | 60.9% |
| Utilidad neta GAAP | $398.9 millones |
| EPS GAAP / non-GAAP | $2.53 / $2.56 (esperado: ~$2.08; un año antes: $0.75) |
| Ingresos ligados a IA | ~70% (vs ~60% en Q4 2025) |
Guía Q2 2026: ingresos de $1,150-$1,250 millones y EPS non-GAAP de $1.86-$2.15 — secuencialmente menor que Q1: la demanda es 'grumosa' (lumpy) y la empresa admite visibilidad limitada al segundo semestre. Próximo reporte: 28 de julio de 2026.
Modelo objetivo FY2026: ~$6,000 millones de ingresos y EPS non-GAAP de $9.50-$11.00 — casi el doble de 2025.
Año completo 2025
| Métrica | FY2025 |
|---|---|
| Ingresos | $3.19 mil millones (+13% vs $2.82 mil millones en 2024) |
| Utilidad neta GAAP | $554 millones |
| Q4 2025 | $1,083 millones (+44%) — el trimestre en que arrancó la aceleración de IA |
La tesis del boom de IA
- Cada chip se prueba antes de venderse — y los chips de IA (aceleradores, HBM, redes) son los más complejos jamás fabricados: más transistores, chips apilados, memoria pegada al procesador. Más complejidad = más tiempo de prueba por chip = más máquinas.
- ~70% de los ingresos ya ligado a IA: aceleradores a la medida de los gigantes de la nube (los 'ASICs' propios de los hyperscalers), memoria HBM4 de nueva generación y chips de networking.
- Duopolio con Advantest: décadas de tecnología acumulada; los clientes no cambian de proveedor a la ligera. La competencia es por programa (chip por chip), no por precio de lista.
- Rentabilidad de élite cuando el ciclo acompaña: margen bruto ~61%, utilidad neta non-GAAP = 31% de las ventas en Q1 2026.
- Robotics como opcionalidad: Universal Robots + MiR — hoy pequeña (~7%) y venida a menos desde 2022, pero con 4 trimestres seguidos de crecimiento y apalancada a la automatización con IA ('physical AI').
Dividendo (simbólico)
- $0.13 por acción al trimestre (subió de $0.12 a inicios de 2026; declarado el 7 may 2026, pagado el 12 jun 2026) → $0.52 anuales = ~0.1% a $386.58.
- También recompra acciones. Pero la apuesta aquí es crecimiento, no renta.
Liderazgo
- CEO: Greg Smith (desde febrero 2023; veterano de la casa, venía de dirigir Semiconductor Test).
- Sede: North Reading, Massachusetts. ~6,600 empleados; ~156.5 millones de acciones en circulación.
Anchor Fact
Ningún chip del mundo se puede vender sin pasar antes un examen eléctrico, y las máquinas que aplican ese examen las hacen básicamente dos empresas: Teradyne y la japonesa Advantest. Los chips de IA son tan complejos que necesitan muchas más horas de prueba que un chip normal — por eso Teradyne acaba de romper su récord de ventas de 66 años con un trimestre de +87%.
Top 6 Risks
- Valuación tras el rally — ~72x utilidad TTM; la acción subió más de 4x en un año (mínimo ~$89 → máximo ~$488) y cayó 19% en un día tras reportar un trimestre récord; target promedio (~$417) solo ~8% arriba
- Ciclicidad brutal — 2025 facturó la mitad de lo que proyecta 2026; el ciclo baja igual de rápido; guía Q2 secuencialmente menor y visibilidad limitada al H2
- Concentración de clientes — el ecosistema TSMC/Samsung/SK Hynix y las grandes ensambladoras asiáticas concentran los pedidos
- Advantest — el otro lado del duopolio; históricamente se quedó con la prueba de las GPUs de NVIDIA; cada programa nuevo de IA se pelea chip por chip
- Robotics decepciona — Universal Robots: $326M (2022) → ~$232M (2025), dos rondas de despidos (~25% y ~14%); recuperándose, pero promesa incumplida
- Geopolítica — clientes concentrados en Taiwán/Corea/China; controles de exportación, aranceles o conflicto en Taiwán pegan directo
Analyst Consensus
- Rating: Strong Buy (TipRanks: 11 Buy, 1 Hold, 0 Sell)
- Target promedio: ~$417 (~+8% desde $386.58); rango $270-$550
- Targets recién elevados: BofA $525, Susquehanna $550, Cantor $550
- Lectura honesta: la acción llegó a cotizar en junio (~$488) por ARRIBA del target promedio y ha corregido ~20% desde ese máximo. Los alcistas más agresivos ven $525-550; el promedio ve upside moderado. Es momentum de ciclo, no ganga.
Tesis en una línea
El cobrador de peaje del boom de chips de IA: gane quien gane la carrera —NVIDIA, AMD o los chips propios de los gigantes de la nube—, cada chip tiene que pasar por las máquinas del duopolio Teradyne-Advantest, y el examen es cada vez más largo y más caro.
Research fecha: 6 Jul 2026 | Próxima revisión: Ene 2027
Esto no es asesoría financiera.
This is not financial advice. Consult a certified financial advisor.
The author may hold positions in the securities discussed.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.