What does Deere & Company do?

Deere & Company is the world's #1 maker of farm machinery and a top-3 global player in construction/forestry. Founded in 1837 by John Deere in Grand Detour, Illinois — the blacksmith who invented the first self-cleaning steel plow that enabled farming in the Midwest prairies. HQ Moline, Illinois (where it was established in 1848 after moving). ~75,000 employees globally. CEO: John C. May (Chairman + CEO since 2019/2020). Revenue structure FY2025 (fiscal year ends late October — $45.7B total, -12% YoY from $51.7B FY2024): (1) Production & Precision Ag (~38%, $17.3B) — core segment: large tractors (8R/9RX series), combines (S/X series), precision farming technology, sprayers. Operating profit EPS -41% YoY to $2.67B in the downcycle. (2) Small Ag & Turf (~22%, $10.2B) — compact tractors, turf equipment, residential. (3) Construction & Forestry (~25%, $11.4B) — includes Wirtgen Group (the $5.2B acquisition in 2017, global road construction), construction and forestry John Deere brand. (4) Financial Services (~13%, $5.8B) — John Deere Financial finances ~50%+ of equipment sales to farmers; +1% YoY in FY2025 (the only segment growing). (5) Other (~2%). Precision ag tech stack (the long-term plan): Blue River Technology (acquired 2017, AI/ML brain of See & Spray), Bear Flag Robotics (acquired 2021, base autonomy), Hagie Manufacturing (high-clearance sprayers), JDLink (telematics), and the John Deere Operations Center (cloud platform — the central data hub where data from each connected tractor converges). The autonomous 8R/9RX Perception Autonomy Kit revealed at CES 2025: 16 cameras in pods for 360° field view, retrofittable to MY2020+ tractors and 9R/9RX MY2022+, with an orchard variant adding LiDAR. Limited availability 2025, broader rollout 2026. Geography: US core (Iowa: Waterloo/Davenport/Dubuque/Ankeny; Illinois: Moline/East Moline). Brazil = high-growth strategic market — 3 factories + tech center, BRL 3B invested. India = opportunity but tough — Mahindra+Swaraj dominates ~43% combined vs Deere ~7.87%. Europe = Small Ag & Turf-skew. Announced in 2024 that production of skid steers + compact track loaders is MOVING from Dubuque (Iowa) to Mexico by end of 2026 — over 4,500 jobs cut since 2015.

Why did Vectorial Data pick DE?

Deere at $579.38 is buying the #1 global operator of ag equipment + precision farming right at the bottom of the deepest downcycle since 2014, with recently raised guidance, field inventories at 17-year lows, and the broader commercial rollout of the autonomous 8R/9RX starting in 2026. Specific reasons: (1) Q1 FY2026 was the inflection — reported Feb 19, 2026: EPS $2.42 beat expectations by ~20% ($2.00-$2.10 expected). Equipment-ops revenue $8.0B (+17.5% YoY). Construction & Forestry +34%, Small Ag & Turf +24% (downcycle bottom evidence). Deere RAISED FY2026 guidance to net income $4.5-5.0B (from $4.0-4.75B prior). (2) '2026 marks the bottom of the current cycle' — John May, Q1 call: concrete data supports it — field inventory of tractors 220+ HP at end of FY2025 = the lowest level in 17+ years. Destocking essentially complete. When large tractors start leaving the lot again, Deere captures the full upside (no competitor close). (3) Long-term precision ag plan inflecting: See & Spray covered +5M acres in 2025 saving 31M gallons of herbicide + delivering +2 bu/acre of yield in third-party university trials in 7 states. Pricing model evolved to per-acre ($1 fallow / $5 in-crop) = SaaS-like recurring revenue. Target: +185M additional engaged acres by end of 2026 (acres connected to the Operations Center). If Deere captures $5-10/acre in software/service on 265M+ engaged acres = $1.3-2.7B incremental high-margin recurring. (4) Autonomous 8R/9RX broader rollout 2026: Perception Autonomy Kit revealed CES 2025 with 16 cameras + LiDAR in orchard variant, retrofittable to MY2020+ tractors. Limited 2025, broader 2026. See & Scout launched April 23, 2026 — extends spraying platform to field scouting. This is NOT vaporware — it's a product that has already billed. (5) Accelerated capital return: dividend $1.62/q ($6.48/year, +16.3% CAGR 5 years, payout ratio only 34%, 6 years of consecutive increases), $750M returned to shareholders in Q1 FY2026 alone. Buyback authorization cumulative ~$39-43B (UAW figure). (6) Structural tailwind in Brazil: ag machinery market projected from $7.93B (2025) to $11.38B (2031, CAGR ~6.2%). Deere expanding capacity — BRL 3B in factories + BRL 180M in tropical-ag tech center. (7) Tariffs are net positives in 5 years: the $1.2B FY2026 hit is real but the onshoring response to Trump tariffs favors Deere vs CNH/Kubota (more exposed to import). May explicit in Q1 call: tariffs accelerate shift of farmers' spending to domestic equipment. (8) Analyst consensus: 16 Buy / 9 Hold / 0 Sell. Mean target ~$655, range $618-$669, high $775-$793. Implied upside +13% to mean. RBC has $736 applying 32x to FY2027 EPS consensus of $23.01-$23.64.

What are the risks of investing in DE?

The risks are specifically measurable: (1) Confirmed tariff hit $1.2B in FY2026 — and growing: Q1 FY2026 already absorbed tariffs; on April 6, 2026, Section 232 expanded to 50% on the full value of the item (not just metal content) adds incremental headwind. Q2 FY2026 (reports mid-May 2026) will be the first full quarter with the new framework. If tariffs persist for 12+ months, the run-rate could rise to $1.5-2B. (2) Commodity price headwind on farmers' spending: USDA outlook 2026 — corn $4.62/bu (-$0.08), losses forecast of $0.88/bu, cost-to-plant +$27 to $917/acre. Net farm income forecast $153.4B (-0.7% YoY). Farmers postpone spending in this environment — the 'farm spending freeze' is the frame investors are watching. Government payments up to $44.3B (+$13.8B) partially compensate. (3) Priced expensively assumes clean rebound FY2027: price vs. profit TTM 33.9x / forward FY2026 31.5x / forward FY2027 25x assumes EPS rebound to $23+ in FY2027. Morningstar fair value $328 = -43% downside as contrarian bookend. If commodity prices DON'T rise + tariffs persist + precision ag adoption plateaus, FY2027 EPS may fall to the low end $19, and multiple compresses simultaneously. Downside trough case: $400 (-31%). (4) UAW + labor friction: 4,500+ jobs cut since 2015, 2,700+ since Oct 2023. Relationship with UAW openly hostile (2021 strike was significant). Mexico shift of skid steers/compact track loaders creates political friction — Trump threatened a 200% tariff on Deere-Mexico products during the campaign. CBA renegotiation could bring disruption. (5) Precision ag adoption may plateau: See & Spray grew to 5M acres but targeting +185M acres in 1 year is aggressive. If farmer ROI math tightens due to low commodity prices, adoption rate could stall. Competitors (Solinftec, Greeneye Technology) are commoditizing spot-spray. The 'data flywheel' only works if it actually spins. (6) Mahindra threat in India + CNH in LatAm: Mahindra+Swaraj ~43% combined India share vs Deere ~7.87%. CNH (acquired Raven Industries 2021) competing aggressively in precision ag. AGCO with Trimble JV. Deere's premium-price positioning works in the US but harder in price-sensitive markets. (7) Recent CFO transition: Joshua Jepsen resigned Feb 19, 2026 (same day as Q1 results) to become CFO of Honeywell Aerospace. Ryan Campbell acting CFO interim. Any CFO transition in mid-cycle reorg = risk of guidance revision. (8) Construction & Forestry separate cycle: ~25% revenue depends on housing + infrastructure spending. If Trump infrastructure bill delays + housing recession deepens, Construction segment could fall another -20% on the already depressed FY2025 base.

Does DE pay dividends?

Yes. Deere & Company pays a dividend of about 1.12% per year.

How can I buy DE with little money?

You can buy fractional shares of DE starting from a few dollars with any broker that offers fractional shares. The Vectorial Data method: invest the same amount in every pick, every time.

When was this DE analysis last updated?

The DE analysis was last updated on Invalid Date.

Stocks/DE

DE — Deere & Company

IndustrialsNorth AmericaUnited StatesBlockchain certified

$578.79

Target: $655.00 (+13%)

P/E Ratio

32.7

P/E Forward

25.1

Dividend

1.12%

Market Cap

$156.34B

EPS

$17.72

Consensus

Buy

What they do

Deere & Company is the world's #1 maker of farm machinery and a top-3 global player in construction/forestry. Founded in 1837 by John Deere in Grand Detour, Illinois — the blacksmith who invented the first self-cleaning steel plow that enabled farming in the Midwest prairies. HQ Moline, Illinois (where it was established in 1848 after moving). ~75,000 employees globally. CEO: John C. May (Chairman + CEO since 2019/2020).

Revenue structure FY2025 (fiscal year ends late October — $45.7B total, -12% YoY from $51.7B FY2024):

Production & Precision Ag (~38%, $17.3B) — core segment: large tractors (8R/9RX series), combines (S/X series), precision farming technology, sprayers. Operating profit EPS -41% YoY to $2.67B in the downcycle.
Small Ag & Turf (~22%, $10.2B) — compact tractors, turf equipment, residential.
Construction & Forestry (~25%, $11.4B) — includes Wirtgen Group (the $5.2B acquisition in 2017, global road construction), construction and forestry John Deere brand.
Financial Services (~13%, $5.8B) — John Deere Financial finances ~50%+ of equipment sales to farmers; +1% YoY in FY2025 (the only segment growing).
Other (~2%).

Precision ag tech stack (the long-term plan): Blue River Technology (acquired 2017, AI/ML brain of See & Spray), Bear Flag Robotics (acquired 2021, base autonomy), Hagie Manufacturing (high-clearance sprayers), JDLink (telematics), and the John Deere Operations Center (cloud platform — the central data hub where data from each connected tractor converges). The autonomous 8R/9RX Perception Autonomy Kit revealed at CES 2025: 16 cameras in pods for 360° field view, retrofittable to MY2020+ tractors and 9R/9RX MY2022+, with an orchard variant adding LiDAR. Limited availability 2025, broader rollout 2026.

Geography: US core (Iowa: Waterloo/Davenport/Dubuque/Ankeny; Illinois: Moline/East Moline). Brazil = high-growth strategic market — 3 factories + tech center, BRL 3B invested. India = opportunity but tough — Mahindra+Swaraj dominates ~43% combined vs Deere ~7.87%. Europe = Small Ag & Turf-skew. Announced in 2024 that production of skid steers + compact track loaders is MOVING from Dubuque (Iowa) to Mexico by end of 2026 — over 4,500 jobs cut since 2015.

Why we like it

Deere at $579.38 is buying the #1 global operator of ag equipment + precision farming right at the bottom of the deepest downcycle since 2014, with recently raised guidance, field inventories at 17-year lows, and the broader commercial rollout of the autonomous 8R/9RX starting in 2026. Specific reasons:

Q1 FY2026 was the inflection — reported Feb 19, 2026: EPS $2.42 beat expectations by ~20% ($2.00-$2.10 expected). Equipment-ops revenue $8.0B (+17.5% YoY). Construction & Forestry +34%, Small Ag & Turf +24% (downcycle bottom evidence). Deere RAISED FY2026 guidance to net income $4.5-5.0B (from $4.0-4.75B prior).
'2026 marks the bottom of the current cycle' — John May, Q1 call: concrete data supports it — field inventory of tractors 220+ HP at end of FY2025 = the lowest level in 17+ years. Destocking essentially complete. When large tractors start leaving the lot again, Deere captures the full upside (no competitor close).
Long-term precision ag plan inflecting: See & Spray covered +5M acres in 2025 saving 31M gallons of herbicide + delivering +2 bu/acre of yield in third-party university trials in 7 states. Pricing model evolved to per-acre ($1 fallow / $5 in-crop) = SaaS-like recurring revenue. Target: +185M additional engaged acres by end of 2026 (acres connected to the Operations Center). If Deere captures $5-10/acre in software/service on 265M+ engaged acres = $1.3-2.7B incremental high-margin recurring.
Autonomous 8R/9RX broader rollout 2026: Perception Autonomy Kit revealed CES 2025 with 16 cameras + LiDAR in orchard variant, retrofittable to MY2020+ tractors. Limited 2025, broader 2026. See & Scout launched April 23, 2026 — extends spraying platform to field scouting. This is NOT vaporware — it's a product that has already billed.
Accelerated capital return: dividend $1.62/q ($6.48/year, +16.3% CAGR 5 years, payout ratio only 34%, 6 years of consecutive increases), $750M returned to shareholders in Q1 FY2026 alone. Buyback authorization cumulative ~$39-43B (UAW figure).
Structural tailwind in Brazil: ag machinery market projected from $7.93B (2025) to $11.38B (2031, CAGR ~6.2%). Deere expanding capacity — BRL 3B in factories + BRL 180M in tropical-ag tech center.
Tariffs are net positives in 5 years: the $1.2B FY2026 hit is real but the onshoring response to Trump tariffs favors Deere vs CNH/Kubota (more exposed to import). May explicit in Q1 call: tariffs accelerate shift of farmers' spending to domestic equipment.
Analyst consensus: 16 Buy / 9 Hold / 0 Sell. Mean target ~$655, range $618-$669, high $775-$793. Implied upside +13% to mean. RBC has $736 applying 32x to FY2027 EPS consensus of $23.01-$23.64.

Key Risk

The risks are specifically measurable:

Confirmed tariff hit $1.2B in FY2026 — and growing: Q1 FY2026 already absorbed tariffs; on April 6, 2026, Section 232 expanded to 50% on the full value of the item (not just metal content) adds incremental headwind. Q2 FY2026 (reports mid-May 2026) will be the first full quarter with the new framework. If tariffs persist for 12+ months, the run-rate could rise to $1.5-2B.
Commodity price headwind on farmers' spending: USDA outlook 2026 — corn $4.62/bu (-$0.08), losses forecast of $0.88/bu, cost-to-plant +$27 to $917/acre. Net farm income forecast $153.4B (-0.7% YoY). Farmers postpone spending in this environment — the 'farm spending freeze' is the frame investors are watching. Government payments up to $44.3B (+$13.8B) partially compensate.
Priced expensively assumes clean rebound FY2027: price vs. profit TTM 33.9x / forward FY2026 31.5x / forward FY2027 25x assumes EPS rebound to $23+ in FY2027. Morningstar fair value $328 = -43% downside as contrarian bookend. If commodity prices DON'T rise + tariffs persist + precision ag adoption plateaus, FY2027 EPS may fall to the low end $19, and multiple compresses simultaneously. Downside trough case: $400 (-31%).
UAW + labor friction: 4,500+ jobs cut since 2015, 2,700+ since Oct 2023. Relationship with UAW openly hostile (2021 strike was significant). Mexico shift of skid steers/compact track loaders creates political friction — Trump threatened a 200% tariff on Deere-Mexico products during the campaign. CBA renegotiation could bring disruption.
Precision ag adoption may plateau: See & Spray grew to 5M acres but targeting +185M acres in 1 year is aggressive. If farmer ROI math tightens due to low commodity prices, adoption rate could stall. Competitors (Solinftec, Greeneye Technology) are commoditizing spot-spray. The 'data flywheel' only works if it actually spins.
Mahindra threat in India + CNH in LatAm: Mahindra+Swaraj ~43% combined India share vs Deere ~7.87%. CNH (acquired Raven Industries 2021) competing aggressively in precision ag. AGCO with Trimble JV. Deere's premium-price positioning works in the US but harder in price-sensitive markets.
Recent CFO transition: Joshua Jepsen resigned Feb 19, 2026 (same day as Q1 results) to become CFO of Honeywell Aerospace. Ryan Campbell acting CFO interim. Any CFO transition in mid-cycle reorg = risk of guidance revision.
Construction & Forestry separate cycle: ~25% revenue depends on housing + infrastructure spending. If Trump infrastructure bill delays + housing recession deepens, Construction segment could fall another -20% on the already depressed FY2025 base.

This is educational and informational content, not financial advice. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Vectorial Data picked DE on 2026-05-04 at $578.79.

Last updated: Invalid Date

Dividends received by the Vectorial portfolio

What this stock has paid the model since we bought it. Your actual amount depends on when you replicated.

Ex-div date	Per share	Shares	Total to portfolio
Jun 30, 2026	$1.6200	0.0869	$0.14

Total received: $0.14

Full Research

Deere & Company (DE) — Research Completo

Precio: $579.38 | P/E TTM: 33.9x | P/E Forward FY26: 31.5x | Div Yield: 1.12% | Market Cap: $156.5B

Qué Es

Deere & Company es el #1 fabricante mundial de maquinaria agrícola y un top-3 global en construcción/forestry. Fundada en 1837 por John Deere — el blacksmith que inventó el primer arado de acero auto-limpiable que permitió cultivar las praderas del Midwest. HQ Moline, Illinois. ~75,000 empleados.

CEO: John C. May (Chairman + CEO desde 2019/2020). CFO transition reciente: Joshua Jepsen renunció 19 feb 2026 para CFO de Honeywell Aerospace. Ryan D. Campbell acting CFO interim. Cory Reed movido de President P&PA a President Lifecycle Solutions (señal de reorg en aftermarket + monetización digital).

Estructura de Segmentos (FY 2025: $45.7B, -12% YoY)

Segmento	Revenue	%	Op Profit	OP YoY
Production & Precision Ag	$17.3B	~38%	$2.67B	-41%
Small Ag & Turf	$10.2B	~22%	$1.21B	-26%
Construction & Forestry	$11.4B	~25%	$1.03B	-49%
Financial Services	$5.8B	~13%	$1.11B	+25%
Other	$0.95B	~2%	—	—

FY2025 EPS Diluted: $18.50 (vs $25.62 FY2024 = -28%) — el downcycle más profundo desde 2014.

Q1 FY2026 (reportado 19 feb 2026 — INFLECTION)

Métrica	Q1 FY26	YoY
Equipment Ops Revenue	$8.0B	+17.5%
Worldwide Net Sales	$9.6B	+13%
Net Income	$656M	-25% (tariff drag)
EPS Diluted	$2.42	-24% but BEAT $2.00-$2.10 est por ~20%
Equipment Ops Op Margin	5.9%	tariff-compressed, mejorando seq

Segmentos Q1 FY26:

Segmento	Net Sales	YoY	Op Margin
Production & Precision Ag	$3.16B	+3%	4.4%
Small Ag & Turf	$2.17B	+24%	9.0%
Construction & Forestry	$2.67B	+34%	5.1%

Construction orders highest level since 2024.

Guidance FY2026 (RAISED en Q1 call)

Net Income: $4.5B - $5.0B (raised de $4.0B-$4.75B)
Production & Precision Ag op margin: 11-13%
Small Ag & Turf op margin: 13.5-15% (raised)
Construction & Forestry op margin: 9-11% (raised)
Tariff cost FY2026: ~$1.2B pre-tax (less than half from IEEPA)

La Cita Que Importa

"2026 marca el fondo del ciclo actual." — John May, Q1 FY26 earnings call (19 feb 2026)

Evidencia que respalda:

Inventario de field de tractores 220+ HP a fin FY2025 = 17-year low
Destocking de dealers esencialmente completo
Construction orders Q1 FY26 = highest desde 2024
Brazil + India + Russia growth offsetting NA softness

Tesis Secular: Precision Ag Data Flywheel

Stack:

Blue River Technology (adq 2017) — AI/ML brain de See & Spray
Bear Flag Robotics (adq 2021) — autonomía base
Hagie Manufacturing (adq 2016) — sprayer hardware
JDLink — telematics
Operations Center — cloud central, data flywheel

Tracking comercial:

See & Spray cobertura: +5M acres en 2025

- Ahorró ~31M galones de herbicida mix

- +2 bu/acre yield (avg, hasta +4.8) — third-party trials universidades en 7 estados

Engaged Acres: +80M en 1 año, target +185M más fin 2026
Pricing: $1/fallow acre, $5/in-crop acre, Application Savings Guarantee (pay only when measurable savings deliver), Unlimited Annual License nuevo MY2026

Math grueso: 265M+ engaged acres × $5-10/acre = $1.3-2.7B incremental recurring a margenes software-like (50%+).

Autonomous Tractor Rollout

Modelo	CES Reveal	Status
Autonomous 8R	CES 2022	Limited availability
Perception Autonomy Kit gen-2	CES 2025	16 cameras pods + 360°
Retrofittable	MY2020+ 8R/8RX, MY2022+ 9R/9RX	2026 broader
Orchard variant	CES 2025	LiDAR added
See & Scout	23 abril 2026	Field scouting tool

Catalizadores Próximos

Fecha	Evento
Mid-mayo 2026	Q2 FY26 earnings (TBD — verify Deere IR)
Mayo 8, 2026	Pago dividendo $1.62/q (record date 31 marzo)
Jun-Jul 2026	Annual investor day típicamente
2026 H2	Mexico production shift execution
CES Jan 2027	Próximo gen autonomous reveal

Capital Return

Dividendo: $1.62/q ($6.48/año) — 6 años consecutivos subiendo, +16.3% CAGR 5 años
Payout ratio: 34%
Q1 FY26: ~$750M devueltos (dividendos + buybacks)
Buyback cumulative authorization: ~$39-43B (UAW figure)
Yield: 1.12% al precio actual

Comparables

Company	P/E TTM	Op Margin	Notes
DE	33.9x	12-13% est FY26	Premium ag pure-play
CAT	43x (Apr 26)	mid-upper guide	Energy/data-center tailwind
CNH	32.75x	4.5-5.5% guide	Margin compression
AGCO	12-20x	6.8% (adj 7.5%)	Cheapest
Kubota	14.6x	8.8%	Highest peer margin

Geografía + Manufacturing

US Iowa: Waterloo, Davenport, Dubuque, Ankeny, Johnston, Urbandale, Ottumwa
US Illinois: Moline, East Moline
Brazil: 3 plants + tech center; BRL 3B+ invested; mercado proyectado a $11.4B (2031)
India: ~7.87% share (Mahindra dominante 43% combined)
Mexico shift: skid steers + compact track loaders moving from Dubuque IA → Mexico fin 2026

Layoff/Labor History

Año	Eventos
2015-2023	2,000+ jobs cortados
Oct 2023-2024	+2,700 jobs cortados Iowa/Illinois
2024	2,167 layoffs
2026 (proj)	Mexico shift execution

UAW abiertamente hostil. Trump campaña 2024 amenazó 200% tariff sobre productos Deere-Mexico.

Analyst Consensus

Mix: 16 Buy / 9 Hold / 0 Sell (MarketBeat) o 10/6/0 (TipRanks)
Mean target: ~$655 (range $618-$669)
High target: $775 (TipRanks) / $793 (WallStreetZen) / $736 (RBC)
Low target: $531-$550
Upside vs $579: +13% al mean
FY2026 EPS consensus: $18.42 (range $16.72-$20.75)
FY2027 EPS consensus: ~$23.01-$23.64
Morningstar fair value: $328 (contrarian, -43% downside)

Por Qué Hoy

(1) Q1 FY26 batió por 20% + guide raised

(2) John May: '2026 marca el fondo del ciclo'

(3) Inventarios de field tractores 220+ HP en 17-year low

(4) Tesis secular precision ag inflexionando (5M acres + per-acre pricing)

(5) Autonomous 8R/9RX rollout broader 2026

(6) Capital return acelerado (6 años consecutivos div+, $750M Q1)

Riesgos Específicos

(1) Tariffs $1.2B FY26 confirmados + Section 232 expandido 6 abril 2026

(2) Commodity prices presionando farmer capex

(3) Valuation 33x asume FY27 rebound limpio

(4) UAW + Mexico shift = labor friction

(5) Mahindra + CNH share thieves en LATAM/India

(6) Morningstar $328 fair value como bookend contrario

Research fecha: 4 May 2026 | Próxima revisión: Nov 2026

Esto no es asesoría financiera.

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Researched: 5/4/2026Updated: 5/4/2026Next review: 11/4/2026

This is not financial advice. Consult a certified financial advisor.

The author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.