LLY — Eli Lilly and Company
$1146.62
Target: $1236.00 (+7.8%)
P/E Ratio
40.7
P/E Forward
25.6
Dividend
0.54%
Market Cap
$1057.5B
EPS
$28.14
Consensus
Buy
What they do
Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) is one of the largest and oldest drug companies in the world, founded in Indianapolis in 1876. Today its growth engine is a single family of medicines —the so-called incretins or GLP-1— that copy a body hormone to reduce appetite and control blood sugar.
The star products:
- Mounjaro (tirzepatide, injection) — for type 2 diabetes. In Q1 2026 it brought in $8.66 billion (+125%), and for the first time it sells more outside the U.S. than inside.
- Zepbound (the same tirzepatide) — approved for obesity and sleep apnea. U.S. sales of $4.16 billion (+80%) in the quarter.
- Foundayo (orforglipron) — the new jewel: the first pill of the GLP-1 type for losing weight, approved by the FDA on April 1, 2026. Until now these medicines only came as an injection; a pill is much easier to make and to take (with no food or water restrictions), and it opens the door to hundreds of millions of new patients.
- Kisunla (donanemab) — for early Alzheimer's: it clears the plaques in the brain. Just starting to take off.
- Verzenio (breast cancer), Taltz (psoriasis), Jardiance (diabetes/heart, with Boehringer), and a lineup of younger launches (Ebglyss for eczema, Omvoh, Jaypirca).
Why it's booming now: obesity is the biggest drug market ever opened —hundreds of millions of people—, and Lilly arrived with the most powerful medicine and now also with the first pill. It controls close to 60% of the world market for GLP-1.
Leadership: CEO David A. Ricks (since January 2017, also chairman of the board). Headquarters in Indianapolis, Indiana. ~50,000 employees. In 2026 the company turns 150 years old.
Why we like it
LLY at $1,146.62 is buying the undisputed leader of the biggest wave in modern medicine, during a bout of profit-taking with no bad news behind it. Concrete reasons:
- Growth that almost no company its size achieves. In Q1 2026 (reported on April 30) it brought in $19.8 billion, +56%, with adjusted earnings per share rising +156%. And it raised its full-year target to $82-85 billion in revenue —more than 40% above 2025—.
- Market dominance. Its two versions of tirzepatide (Mounjaro + Zepbound) brought in $12.8 billion in a single quarter (~$51 billion a year). Lilly has ~60% of the global GLP-1 market.
- The pill changes everything. Foundayo, the first GLP-1 pill for losing weight, was approved on April 1. A pill is cheaper to produce and reaches far more people than an injection: it is the next step up in an already huge market.
- Its rival just stumbled. Novo Nordisk's rival medicine (CagriSema) lost a head-to-head comparison against Zepbound (20% vs 24% weight loss), and Novo projects that its obesity sales will shrink in 2026 while Lilly raises its target.
- It's cheaper than it looks. It trades at ~26 times expected earnings for a company growing +40% —one of the most reasonable valuations it has had in years—, and we bought it ~8% below its all-time high of $1,249, touched on July 7. 'Buy' rating, average target ~$1,236 (UBS sees $1,425). It reports on August 5: a near-term catalyst.
Key Risk
Risks:
- Sky-high valuation and expectations — the #1: at ~$1.06 trillion in market value and ~41 times historical earnings, the price already assumes flawless execution; the average target (~$1,236) sits just ~8% higher, and a single stumble in the August 5 report gets punished hard.
- Competition: Novo Nordisk is fighting for the market and has already started a price war —Lilly's real prices fell ~13% in the quarter—; further out, Amgen and Viking arrive with their own medicines (first launches ~2027).
- Government price pressure: the U.S. is forcing lower prices (a deal puts Mounjaro/Zepbound at ~$245/month for Medicare), and some of its medicines have already entered Medicare's mandatory price negotiation.
- Patent expirations: although tirzepatide is protected until ~2036, other medicines (Trulicity, Jardiance, Verzenio) lose protection this decade and that revenue has to be replaced —which is why Lilly keeps buying companies nonstop (it just paid up to $3.8 billion for AtaiBeckley)—.
- One business, one bet: much of the value depends on tirzepatide; a safety, manufacturing or regulatory problem in that family would hit very hard.
This is educational and informational content, not financial advice. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Vectorial Data picked LLY on 2026-07-23 at $1146.62.
Full Research
Eli Lilly (LLY) — Research Completo
Precio: $1,146.62 | P/E TTM: ~41x | P/E fwd: ~26x | Div Yield: ~0.5% | Market Cap: ~$1.06 billones USD
¿Qué es Eli Lilly?
Una de las farmacéuticas más grandes y antiguas del mundo, fundada en Indianápolis en 1876 por el coronel Eli Lilly. En noviembre de 2025 se convirtió en la primera empresa de salud de la historia en valer un billón de dólares. Su motor hoy es la familia de medicamentos GLP-1 / incretinas: imitan una hormona natural que reduce el apetito y controla el azúcar en sangre. CEO David A. Ricks (desde enero 2017). ~50,000 empleados. En 2026 cumple 150 años.
Los productos (Q1 2026)
| Producto | Para qué | Ventas Q1 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Mounjaro (tirzepatida) | Diabetes tipo 2 | $8.66 mil millones (+125%) |
| Zepbound (tirzepatida) | Obesidad / apnea del sueño | $4.16 mil millones EE.UU. (+80%) |
| Foundayo (orforglipron) | Primera pastilla GLP-1 para bajar de peso | Recién lanzada (aprobada 1 abr 2026) |
| Kisunla (donanemab) | Alzheimer temprano | $124 millones (rampa) |
| Verzenio | Cáncer de mama HR+ | ~$5.5 mil millones/año |
| Jardiance, Taltz, Ebglyss… | Diabetes/corazón, psoriasis, eczema | Franquicias multimillonarias |
Mounjaro + Zepbound = $12.8 mil millones en un solo trimestre (~$51 mil millones anualizados). Lilly tiene ~60% del mercado mundial de GLP-1.
Último trimestre (Q1 2026, reportado 30 abr 2026)
| Métrica | Q1 2026 |
|---|---|
| Ingresos | $19.8 mil millones (+56%) (volumen +65%, precio −13%) |
| EPS ajustado (non-GAAP) | $8.55 (+156%) |
| EPS GAAP | $8.26 (+170%) |
Guía 2026 subida: ingresos $82-85 mil millones (antes $80-83), EPS ajustado $35.50-37.00. Implica ~+40% de crecimiento vs 2025. Próximo reporte: 5 de agosto de 2026 (consenso ~$20.5 mil millones / EPS $7.74).
La historia: la ola GLP-1
- La obesidad es el mercado farmacéutico más grande jamás abierto: cientos de millones de pacientes potenciales en el mundo.
- Foundayo (la pastilla) es el catalizador clave: aprobada el 1 de abril de 2026, es la primera pastilla GLP-1 para bajar de peso; hasta ~12% de pérdida de peso en estudios, sin restricciones de comida ni agua. Una pastilla se fabrica más barato y llega a mucha más gente que una inyección.
- El rival tropezó: CagriSema de Novo Nordisk perdió la comparación directa contra Zepbound (20% vs 24% de pérdida de peso); Novo proyecta que sus ventas de obesidad se encojan en 2026.
- El siguiente as bajo la manga: retatrutida, en fase final, logró en mayo de 2026 lo nunca visto — 30%+ de pérdida de peso promedio (~38 kilos) en un estudio grande (TRIUMPH-1), el mayor de cualquier medicamento; el 23 de julio despejó dudas de seguridad cardiaca.
Dividendo (pequeño pero creciente)
- $1.73 por acción al trimestre = $6.92 anuales = ~0.5% a $1,146.62. Es bajo porque la acción se disparó, no porque el pago sea débil.
- 12 años consecutivos subiéndolo (el último aumento +15%).
Anchor Fact
El 21 de noviembre de 2025, Eli Lilly se convirtió en la primera empresa de salud de la historia en valer un billón de dólares (un millón de millones). Un solo trimestre de sus medicamentos para bajar de peso ($12.8 mil millones) factura más que compañías farmacéuticas enteras — y su próximo medicamento, la retatrutida, acaba de lograr 30% de pérdida de peso promedio en un estudio grande, algo nunca antes visto.
Top 5 Riesgos
- Valuación / expectativas — ~41x utilidad histórica, ~$1.06 billones de valor; target promedio (~$1,236) solo ~8% arriba; el reporte del 5 de agosto es un examen exigente
- Competencia — Novo Nordisk (guerra de precios: −13% en precios reales), y Amgen/Viking llegando ~2027
- Presión de precios del gobierno — acuerdo MFN (~$245/mes Medicare), negociación obligatoria de Medicare
- Patentes — Trulicity (~2027), Jardiance (~2028), Verzenio (~2029) erosionan esta década; compras constantes para reemplazar ingresos (AtaiBeckley, hasta $3.8 mil millones, jul 2026)
- Concentración en tirzepatida — un problema de seguridad/fabricación/regulatorio en esa familia pegaría muy fuerte
Consenso de analistas
- Rating: Buy / Overweight (~38 analistas)
- Target promedio: ~$1,236 (~+8% desde $1,146.62); S&P ~$1,270
- Alzas recientes (jul 2026): UBS $1,425, JPMorgan $1,400, Morgan Stanley $1,347
Tesis en una línea
El líder indiscutible de la mayor ola de la medicina moderna —los medicamentos para bajar de peso—, con la primera pastilla del mercado, ~60% de participación y crecimiento de +40%, comprado ~8% abajo de su máximo histórico.
Research fecha: 23 Jul 2026 | Próxima revisión: Ene 2027
Esto no es asesoría financiera.
This is not financial advice. Consult a certified financial advisor.
The author may hold positions in the securities discussed.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.