MO — Altria Group, Inc.
$68.64
Target: $70.00 (+2%)
P/E Ratio
14.5
P/E Forward
11.7
Dividend
6.5%
Market Cap
$114.8B
EPS
$4.75
Consensus
Hold
What they do
Altria Group (Richmond, Virginia; ~5,900 employees; CEO Sal Mancuso since May 2026, 36 years at the company) sells tobacco and nicotine almost exclusively in the US — Marlboro's rights outside the US belong to Philip Morris International. Marlboro holds 39.5% of the entire US cigarette market (59.6% of the premium segment). The rest: Black & Mild cigars, Copenhagen and Skoal snuff, on! nicotine pouches (~120,000 stores, with 6/9mg versions FDA-authorized) and NJOY vapes — though the NJOY ACE has been banned from import since 2025 over a patent dispute with JUUL. Also: ~8% of Anheuser-Busch InBev, ~41% of Cronos (cannabis) and a joint venture with Japan Tobacco for heated tobacco (Ploom, under FDA review).
The model is counterintuitive: cigarette volume falls ~4–9% a year (on purpose — fewer people smoke) but Altria raises prices faster than volume falls, buys back shares and passes everything to the dividend. It has run this play for decades: 61 dividend increases in 57 years.
Why we like it
Three reasons.
- THE MOST PROVEN 6.5% ON THE MARKET: 61 dividend increases in 57 years (Dividend King), the latest a few weeks ago (+4.7% to $1.11 quarterly, $4.44 a year); the new policy promises mid-single-digit annual growth through 2028 and the payout (~78%) is within its plan. No other pick of ours pays like this with that track record.
- THE MODEL STILL WORKS: the quarter brought in $6.11 billion with volume −3.2% — the SOFTEST decline in quarters, helped by state crackdowns on illegal vapes — and adjusted earnings grew +2.8%; 2026 guidance of $5.61–5.72 (+3.5–5.5%). Price over volume, like 50 years ago.
- CHEAP WITH OPTIONAL CATALYSTS: 11.7x expected earnings with a $2 billion buyback active; the smoke-free portfolio (on! in 120,000 stores, Ploom with Japan Tobacco at the FDA) and the AB InBev (~8%) and Cronos stakes are value the price barely counts. We're buying ~11% below its high of the year after the Q2 punishment.
Key Risk
#1: the core business shrinks forever. Underlying cigarette volume falls ~4–9% a year (Marlboro shipped −7.4% in the quarter) and the thesis requires price to always outrun the decline — the day it doesn't, the model breaks. Others:
- down-trading: smokers are migrating to cheap brands — Marlboro lost 1.5 points of share in a year;
- the new stuff isn't taking off: NJOY ACE banned over JUUL patents (no return in 2026), and on! pouches LOST volume (−4.2%) against Zyn in the quarter;
- regulation: the menthol ban was withdrawn in 2025 but could return under another administration; the usual litigation;
- ~78% payout: little cushion if earnings stumble;
- zero international exposure: it's a 100% bet on the American smoker;
- Hold consensus with a ~$70 target — at today's price, Wall Street only expects the dividend. Here we're buying the income, not the growth.
This is educational and informational content, not financial advice. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Vectorial Data picked MO on 2026-08-31 at $68.64.
Full Research
Qué hace. Altria Group (NYSE: MO; Richmond, Virginia; ~5,900 empleados; CEO Sal Mancuso desde el 14 de mayo de 2026 — sucedió a Billy Gifford; CFO Heather Newman) vende tabaco/nicotina casi solo en EE.UU. (Marlboro internacional es de PMI). Marlboro: 39.5% del mercado total de cigarros de EE.UU. en el segundo trimestre (−1.5 pp interanual por migración a marcas baratas; 59.6% del segmento premium, estable). Portafolio sin humo: bolsitas on!/on! PLUS (~120,000 tiendas; FDA autorizó 6/9mg, 12mg en trámite), vapes NJOY (ACE prohibido de importación/venta desde el 31 de marzo de 2025 por orden de la ITC ganada por JUUL — sin regreso esperado en 2026; solo se vende NJOY Daily), cigarros Black & Mild, snus Copenhagen/Skoal, y JV con Japan Tobacco (Ploom calentado, PMTA en revisión FDA). Participaciones: ~8% de AB InBev, ~41% de Cronos. Ste. Michelle (vinos) se vendió en 2021.
Resultados (segundo trimestre 2026, 30 de julio). Ingresos netos $6,110 millones (+0.1%); netos de impuestos especiales $5,360 millones (+1.2%). Utilidad ajustada por acción $1.48 (+2.8%) — ligeramente abajo del consenso (~$1.50); la acción cayó ~8%. Volumen doméstico de cigarros −3.2% reportado (~−4.5% ajustado por inventarios) — moderándose por cuarta serie de trimestres, ayudado por la persecución estatal de vapes ilegales con sabor. Tabaco oral: envíos −8.5% reportado (~−2% ajustado); on! −4.2% en el trimestre (competencia de Zyn); primer semestre on! +5.1% (96.1 millones de latas). Las bolsitas ya son ~60% de la categoría oral de EE.UU. Guía 2026 acotada: utilidad ajustada $5.61–5.72 (+3.5–5.5% sobre base $5.42).
Dividendo y capital. Subido 4.7% en agosto de 2026 a $1.11 trimestral → $4.44 anual: 61º aumento en 57 años (Dividend King); ~6.5% de rendimiento. Política nueva: 'dividendo progresivo' con crecimiento de un dígito medio anual hasta 2028 (reemplaza el objetivo de payout ~80%; hoy corre ~78%). Recompras: programa de $2,000 millones (vence 31-dic-2026; duplicado desde $1,000M en octubre 2025); primer semestre: 5.3 millones de acciones por $335 millones; $665 millones restantes. Dividendos pagados en el semestre: $3,600 millones.
Acción. $68.64 de apertura (31 de agosto de 2026); rango 52 semanas $54.70–$77.06 (~11% abajo del máximo); capitalización ~$114,800 millones; P/E 14.5x TTM / 11.7x forward. 2026: rally de primer semestre por la persecución de vapes ilícitos y volúmenes resilientes; −8% con el segundo trimestre; recuperación apoyada por el aumento de dividendo. Consenso Hold (4 buy / 7 hold / 2 sell); target promedio ~$70 (rango $58–79).
Riesgos. (1) Declive secular: volumen subyacente −4–9% anual (Marlboro −7.4% en el trimestre); el precio debe correr siempre más que la caída. (2) Down-trading a marcas de descuento (envíos de descuento +67% según un análisis; Marlboro −1.5 pp de share). (3) Ejecución sin humo: NJOY ACE excluido (más fallos de la ITC entre sep-2026 y ene-2027); on! perdiendo impulso vs Zyn. (4) Regulación/litigio: mentol retirado el 21-ene-2025 pero puede volver; litigios de salud y patentes en curso. (5) Payout ~78% con poco colchón. (6) 100% EE.UU.: sin diversificación contra el declive del fumador estadounidense; vapes ilegales siguen compitiendo pese a la persecución.
This is not financial advice. Consult a certified financial advisor.
The author may hold positions in the securities discussed.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.