WMT — Walmart Inc.
$117.03
Target: $138.95 (+18.7%)
P/E Ratio
41.2
P/E Forward
35.6
Dividend
0.85%
Market Cap
$930.3B
EPS
$2.84
Consensus
Strong Buy
What they do
Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT) is the world's largest retailer by sales. Founded in 1962 by Sam Walton in Bentonville, Arkansas; the Walton family still controls roughly 45% of the company. Its lifelong pitch is 'everyday low prices,' and its scale is hard to picture: ~10,700 stores and clubs, ~2.1 million employees (the world's largest private employer), and ~280 million customer visits per week globally.
Three segments:
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- Walmart U.S.** — the heart of the business: the U.S. supercenters and supermarkets where most of the country shops. Comparable sales (same stores, year over year) grew 4.1% last quarter, with the strongest transaction growth (people coming in to buy) in six quarters.
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- Sam's Club** — Costco-style membership warehouses: you pay an annual fee to buy in bulk for less. A recurring-revenue business with loyal customers.
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- Walmart International — operations outside the U.S.: Walmart de México (Walmex), Canada, China, Chile, plus stakes in Flipkart (India's e-commerce giant) and PhonePe** (digital payments in India).
The new engines (the heart of the thesis):
- E-commerce: online commerce grew 26% globally last quarter. Walmart uses its thousands of stores as mini-warehouses to deliver to your door fast —something Amazon doesn't get for free—.
- Walmart Connect (advertising): Walmart charges brands to advertise inside its app and website. This business grew 44% last quarter and costs almost nothing to run, so it's very high margin.
- Walmart+: its subscription membership (free shipping, fuel discounts, streaming) that keeps households loyal.
- Automation: robotized distribution centers that lower the cost of moving each product.
Leadership: new CEO John Furner since February 1, 2026. He replaced Doug McMillon (who retired January 31 after 11 years). Furner started 32 years ago as an hourly store worker —an insider, not an outsider—. Walmart does pay a dividend: it raised it to $0.99 per share annually in February 2026, its 53rd consecutive annual increase, making it a 'Dividend King' (50+ straight years of raises). Q1 FY2027 (ended April 2026): revenue $177.75 billion (+7.3%), adjusted earnings per share $0.66 (+8.2%). The stock trades expensive for a retailer (~41x earnings) precisely because the market reclassified it from 'boring supermarket' to 'quality compounder' with two high-margin digital engines accelerating.
Why we like it
WMT at $117.03 is buying the largest and most resilient retail machine in the world right as it mutates from a thin-margin store into a business with two high-margin digital engines. Specific reasons:
- Irreplaceable scale: ~10,700 stores, ~2.1 million employees, and ~280 million visits per week. 90% of the U.S. population lives within 10 miles of a Walmart —a physical network no rival can copy, and one that now doubles as a home-delivery network—.
- Digital profitability inflection: e-commerce grew 26% globally and advertising (Walmart Connect) 44% last quarter. These two businesses cost almost nothing to run, so every extra dollar they generate fattens the total margin —the real reason the market pays ~41x—.
- Genuinely defensive business: Walmart sells food and basics; when the economy tightens, more people hunt for low prices and Walmart actually gains higher-income shoppers. It's one of the few businesses that grows in booms and busts alike.
- Dividend King: 53 straight years of dividend increases (to $0.99/share), backed by torrents of cash and share buybacks.
- Continuity without surprises: new CEO John Furner is a 32-year company veteran —no risk of an 'outsider who breaks what works'—. Analyst consensus: 'Strong Buy' (40 analysts), average target ~$138.95 (~+18.7% from $117.03).
Key Risk
Risks:
- High valuation — the #1: ~41x earnings is very expensive for a retailer that historically traded at 15-20x. The market already prices in e-commerce and advertising continuing to accelerate. If that digital growth slows, the stock can correct hard even if the stores keep doing fine —you're paying a tech multiple for a retail business—.
- Thin margins: in traditional retail Walmart earns pennies on every dollar sold; any cost pressure (fuel, wages, logistics) hits directly. Last quarter fuel costs alone shaved 250 basis points off operating profit.
- Tariffs and imports: Walmart imports a huge amount of merchandise (much of it from China); trade tariffs raise its costs and force it to choose between raising prices or eating the margin.
- Cyclical spending: although defensive, a deep recession with high unemployment cuts total spending even on basics.
- Fierce competition: Amazon online, Costco in memberships, dollar stores on price —Walmart fights on every front at once—.
- Small dividend: ~0.85% a year; if you're here for income, this isn't the pick —the thesis is growth + quality, not dividend yield.
This is educational and informational content, not financial advice. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Vectorial Data picked WMT on 2026-06-26 at $117.03.
Full Research
Walmart Inc. (WMT) — Research Completo
Precio: $117.03 | P/E TTM: ~41.2x | Div Yield: ~0.85% | Market Cap: ~$930B USD
¿Qué es Walmart?
El minorista más grande del mundo por ventas y el mayor empleador privado del planeta (~2.1 millones de personas). Fundado en 1962 por Sam Walton en Bentonville, Arkansas; la familia Walton aún controla ~45%. Su propuesta: 'precios bajos todos los días' a escala gigante —~10,700 tiendas y ~280 millones de visitas de clientes por semana—.
Segmentos / Negocio
| Segmento | Qué es | Nota |
|---|---|---|
| Walmart U.S. | Supercentros y supermercados en EE.UU. | Comparables +4.1%; mejor crecimiento de transacciones en 6 trimestres |
| Sam's Club | Clubes de membresía estilo Costco | Ingreso recurrente por cuotas |
| Walmart International | México (Walmex), Canadá, China, Chile + Flipkart y PhonePe (India) | Motor de crecimiento internacional |
Los motores nuevos (la tesis)
- E-commerce +26% global — las tiendas funcionan como mini-bodegas para entrega rápida a domicilio.
- Walmart Connect (publicidad) +44% — Walmart cobra a las marcas por anunciarse en su app/web; altísimo margen.
- Walmart+ — membresía de suscripción (envío gratis, gasolina, streaming) que fideliza hogares.
- Automatización — centros de distribución robotizados que bajan el costo por producto.
Por qué cotiza caro
El mercado dejó de valorarlo como 'supermercado aburrido' (15-20x histórico) y lo reclasificó como compounder de calidad (~41x) porque dos negocios digitales de alto margen —e-commerce y publicidad— están creciendo a doble dígito y engordando el margen total de un negocio antes muy delgado.
Último trimestre (Q1 FY2027, cerrado abril 2026)
| Métrica | Q1 FY2027 |
|---|---|
| Ingresos | $177.75 mil millones (+7.3%) |
| EPS ajustado | $0.66 (+8.2%) |
| Comparables Walmart U.S. | +4.1% |
| E-commerce | +26% global |
| Publicidad (Walmart Connect) | +44% |
| Utilidad operativa | +5.0% (combustible restó 250 pb) |
Liderazgo
- CEO: John Furner, desde el 1 de febrero de 2026 (reemplazó a Doug McMillon tras 11 años). Furner empezó hace 32 años como empleado por hora —veterano de la casa—.
- Dividendo: $0.99/acción anual (+5% en feb 2026), 53.º año consecutivo de aumentos → 'Rey del Dividendo'. Yield ~0.85%.
Anchor Fact
El 90% de la población de Estados Unidos vive a menos de 16 kilómetros de un Walmart, y ~280 millones de clientes visitan sus tiendas cada semana en el mundo. Esa red física gigantesca —imposible de replicar— hoy hace doble función: es la tienda donde compra medio país Y la red de bodegas desde la que entrega a domicilio más rápido que casi cualquiera. Por eso su comercio en línea creció 26% y su publicidad 44% el último trimestre, convirtiendo a un minorista de márgenes delgados en algo mucho más rentable.
Top 5 Risks
- Valuación alta (~41x) — precio de tecnológica para un negocio de retail; vulnerable si el crecimiento digital se frena
- Márgenes delgados — el combustible solo ya restó 250 pb a la utilidad operativa el último trimestre
- Aranceles e importaciones — mucha mercancía importada (China); las tarifas suben costos
- Consumo cíclico — una recesión profunda reduce el gasto incluso en básicos
- Competencia feroz — Amazon, Costco y dólar-stores atacando en todos los frentes
Analyst Consensus
- Rating: Strong Buy (40 analistas)
- Target promedio: ~$138.95 (~+18.7% desde $117.03)
Tesis en una línea
El minorista más grande y resistente del mundo, mutando de tienda de márgenes delgados a compounder de calidad gracias a e-commerce (+26%) y publicidad (+44%) de alto margen.
Research fecha: 26 Jun 2026 | Próxima revisión: Dic 2026
Esto no es asesoría financiera.
This is not financial advice. Consult a certified financial advisor.
The author may hold positions in the securities discussed.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.